canderson

You can see the dynamics change right at the PA/MD border. Oddly we see more straighter wind than them but they have the spinning much more.

How delayed is that line now? Seems less likely to be a full QLCS later this evening.

lol the state is closing offices at 1 - right in the middle of storms.

For watch specifically mentions widespread gusts of 80+ mph. Have our safe space ready.

Sun is out in Harrisburg.

52 was the highest I got Looks like we get a reprieve from wind starting Wednesday for at least a week.

Damaging linear/downdraft winds remain our main very strong threat today for both lines - the fropa and the squall. The squall being delayed until after sunset might mitigate that but it’ll still push down 50 mph gusts for some.

Jesus

The NAMs and HRR both keep the extreme severe stuff south of the PA border.

They’re ok - no damage - but neighbor (about 1/4 mile down - it’s Texas remember) lost a part of their roof.

Funny, my parents are currently in the storm shelter because a tornado warning there (in E Texas).

Didn’t want to clutter the other thread. Thank you for that tremendous write up. It was fantastic. Tomorrow will be rough down your way.

Thanks for this. Remarkable this occurred up here back then. Today? Much more likely with climate changes.

I should have mentioned that - yea he’s writing for VA/MD specifically. We don’t have the prime atmospheric conditions VA will have. But that’s mostly for tornadic activity. The QLCS will mix down major winds. LWX mentions this in this afternoon’s write up which I have to say is much more in-depth than CTP’s. Granted however their entire coverage area is in the mod risk. CTP’s isn’t and they have a more dynamic atmosphere than we do. I don’t see tornadoes as much of a thing north of BWI. Once any earlier low stratus are scoured out, expect ample diurnal heating as temperatures rise into the upper 60s to low 70s. Prolonged south to southeasterly flow should also raise dew points into the upper 50s to low 60s. The seasonably warm/moist low-levels coupled by strong forcing aloft and cyclonic turning of the winds with height will make for a very active convective day. While the degree of vertical shear is impressive on its own (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots), this comes with more than sufficient buoyancy levels as surface-based CAPE values push into the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The shear/instability combination will be conducive to supercell development, particularly for any discrete cells that form ahead of a likely squall line. Additionally, the degree of deep-layer shear should make this more of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) which will be capable of tornadogenesis. Aside from any tornado risk, the strong cloud-bearing level winds should easily mix down in convective downdrafts. With 850-700 mb winds around 60-70 knots, any of this higher momentum air being transferred to the surface could yield surface wind gusts into the 65 to 75 mph range. Thus, SPC has a broad area of significant damaging wind potential (45-74%) advertised from I-81 eastward in their latest outlook.

One of the best posts you’ll read about this event

I remember reading about this back in that 2012 storm we had. Crazy that happened up here.

To today - strong east winds are so rare

I’ll have to go read that new thread I guess. C MD down into the Carolinas - especially S of MD is in the big time tornado crosshairs.

Caveat seems to always applies up here though - cape isn’t that high. If we don’t clear out and get a few rounds of early afternoon showers and even t-storms it realy ramps down the ability for a qlcs to sustain itself here.

I’m bad at timing lol but rush hour give or take an hour. The NAM is like 7 pm but they tend to have these events later than they actually are.

Put it this way: If that setup was in Dallas today it’d be a high risk and you’d probably see stovepipe tornadoes.

I moved to PA in 2006. I cannot recall a more favorable setup here than tomorrow for a QLCS packing 70-90 mph winds, hail and perhaps a tornado closer to the MD border. The fact it will be slower and later than it looked like a few days ago makes it even worse. It’s going to hit right after peak heating and soaring dews.

From CTP Within the line, embedded supercells could support concentrated tornadic winds in the midst of a potentially expansive area of damaging wind gusts.

Schools should have easy dismissals as well as companies tomorrow early afternoon. Edit HRRR has this later - post 5 pm so maybe not. It also has a devastating updraft embedded line from DC north through York. Everyone in this thread should prepare for a QLCS with 85 mph winds. Yse today to make sure you have a safe space with water, pillows to cover your head and a hatchet of some type.

Sorry