CTP sums it up well. They don’t mention the 50 mph winds Thursday evening and 35-45 mph winds Fridays and Saturday.
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING POSSIBLE THURSDAY: At the surface, strengthening surface low pressure (SLP) should track northeast through the Ohio Valley on Thursday and occlude over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday. A surge of +2SD pwats (1-1.5 inches) driven by anomalous 850mb LLJ from the south ahead of the trailing cold front will maintain heavy rain risk and potential flooding scenario on Thursday which is highlighted by the D4 SLGT risk WPC ERO. Overall, ingredients look similar to - albeit more progressive - a modified synoptic heavy rain pattern signature. We added explicit mention of +RA into the wx grids this morning with elevated instability supportive of enhanced rain rates. If the trough can dig farther to the west and slow eastward progression, then the setup would become more favorable for heavy rain/flooding. Antecedent or preceding wet ground conditions and elevated streamflows will also be a key factor.