canderson

We get nothing from the coastal on the NAM it appears. The CCB is up in New England.

Lower. The coastal could form too east, too late, too north, etc. they didn’t say to expect it, but it’s a possibility. We know this with Miller Bs.

HRRR gave me 5” snow last week when I got .1. It can F off.

Yep.

CTP did a livestream tonight and went out of their way imo to talk about bust potential.

Crossing fingers and toes! I just fear a 2010 repeat (but larger) where we miss the banding than LancCo received. Miller Bs scare me.

Here you go! 1. Jan. 22-23, 2016, 30.2 inches 2. Feb. 11-13, 1983, 25 inches 3. Jan. 8-9, 1996, 24.2 inches 4. Jan. 16-17, 1945, 21 inches 5. Feb. 19-20, 1964, 20.8 inches 6. March 13-15, 1993, 20.4 inches 7. Jan. 20-21, 1961, 18.7 inches 8. Feb. 17-19, 2003, 18.3 inches 9. Jan.. 13-14, 1964, 18.1 inches 10. Feb. 6-7, 2010, 18 inches

I just hope your flight gets out of here - we’ll post pics, don’t worry!

Jesus lord, the Euro.

11.9” 1.04” qpf I have to keep my expectations “low.” I’m a reformed journalist, it’s how we operate.

It’s a gorgeous day. We went on a long 4 mile walk and I actually got warm.

This will be a fluffy snow right?

It looks almost identical to the 6z run.

Euro should be coming within 30 minutes. Anyone going to give a pbp?

Early afternoon it looks like. Edit: oh heavy. We get the primary snow up to 5” or so Sunday and then early Monday am I think start getting the coastal bomb.

IIRC the NAM was the only model printing out obscene totals up until the day of. Others showed a big storm but not like the NAM’s snowpocalypse.

You can rent the midtown cinema for $100 .... we did it before thanksgiving.

What the f&#$.

GFS ensemble looks perfect.

Think Amazon will deliver a 2 stage Ego snowblower tomorrow afternoon?

CTP probably gonna update that forecast discussion after this euro ......

The Euro, GFS and even the NAM are lining up pretty close with the CCB.

So it stalls just east of roughly Atlantic City? A Nucky Thompson special.

I’m just the messenger! Lol

CTP’s 11:24 pm write up doesn’t really expect warning level snows north of Lancaster. They say it “may” be needed but not expected. Latest ensemble probabilities have increased likelihood for warning criteria snowfall across our southern tier Sun-Mon, with sufficient confidence to hoist Winter Storm Watch headlines from Somerset to Lancaster Counties. This in good collaboration with LWX and PHI and latest Snowprobs, which are showing nearly categorical likelihood of exceeding Advisory criteria and 65-70% likelihood of exceeding 6" over York and Lancaster Counties. Watches *may* need to be expanded slightly northward in time, but it appears that most of the remainder of central PA south of I80 is looking at Advisory criteria snow, and at this time no ptype issues to speak of.