canderson

I’m an idiot and can’t read skew charts. Can someone look at MDT and see what the shear value is currently?

Thank you - you get today’s Gold Star!

Every 2nd and 3rd week in April - absolutely It’s raining here lightly. Way out ahead of any severe stuff.

Mobile so limited capability to check

Some crud forming off way out ahead of the frontal outflow - not sure what that means honestly

Hence why PM sun is irrelevant

Every cell west/SW of the LSV is warned. Impressive.

It’s 90 here now. DP is 74. And a tornado in State College - didn’t have that on my bingo card today at all.

Subplot of Romeo and Juliet

It’s resting - it’ll wake up in an hour

Yea I don’t sense tornadoes north of 30 - straight line winds with the emerging derecho are the issue

I’m a nihilist. What do you expect!

Interesting since straight line winds in a bow are more destructive over a larger area than a tornado, generally.

It is absolutely horrible outside. I am legit scared for late this afternoon/evening.

I’m not currently on acid - what is that?

Of course MDT is a 10 at winds over 40.

Tend to think our storms will be straight line winds and not spinners. Bet we mostly all see winds north of 50 tbh and some unlucky ones get last 70 This setup is ideal and PM sun doesn’t matter much either

Upgrading to a moderate risk for 65+ knot winds for the LSV. Can’t remember the last mod we had.

CTP for Monday finally barks. Buckle up. “Model soundings indicate early low clouds should give way to brightening skies Monday, as the region breaks into the warm sector ahead of low pressure tracking across the lower Grt Lks. Heating of the moist/unstable airmass, combined with strong shear ahead of an upstream trough, will set the stage for severe weather during the PM hours. The strongest mid level flow and best chance of severe weather appears focused over the southern tier counties. However, deep layer shear of 40kts+, combined with MLCAPE in the 1000-20000 J/kg range, will support a risk of all severe hazards over a good portion of Central PA. The latest SPC Outlook paints an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across Central Pennsylvania and a Slight Risk for the rest of the area. Severe wind probabilities are some of the highest we get this time of year in the Lower Susquehanna Valley down into the Chesapeake Bay region. Tornadoes will also be possible with favorable 0-1km SRH values of 150 m2/s2 and STP of 1+. A mix of semi- discrete storms and some clusters will develop in the afternoon and then could congeal into a bowing MCS into the evening, especially across the south. Flash flooding will maximize late Monday afternoon and evening as storm motions slow down and training becomes more likely. An active afternoon and evening appears increasingly likely across the mid- Atlantic with damaging winds”

I’m up in Harrisburg but tomorrow will be a real deal from here south through this region. If I were chasing it’d set up in Hagerstown first and then if necessary move S toward Leesburg if necessary (but I doubt it would be - ability to move north into PA will be worthwhile). CAPE and shear are set up regardless of PM sun.

It’s just now raining. Very very light - probably will get less than .05”. Let’s hope tomorrow is an equally big bust.

Just remembered we have no radar so tomorrow afternoon is going to be rough to know just how severe our storms will be.

SPC all in on severe wind threat tomorrow. 45% (for 65+ knot winds( in southern tier, 30% for most everyone else. Have to iirc go back to June 2013 for the last time we saw these high chances of catastrophic winds.

Atmosphere will be so primed Sun won’t even mater really. A major MCS will set up - just a question of how far north.

I’d go toward Hagerstown but yea York isn’t a bad spot to base.