canderson

I’m a nihilist. What do you expect!

Interesting since straight line winds in a bow are more destructive over a larger area than a tornado, generally.

It is absolutely horrible outside. I am legit scared for late this afternoon/evening.

I’m not currently on acid - what is that?

Of course MDT is a 10 at winds over 40.

Tend to think our storms will be straight line winds and not spinners. Bet we mostly all see winds north of 50 tbh and some unlucky ones get last 70 This setup is ideal and PM sun doesn’t matter much either

Upgrading to a moderate risk for 65+ knot winds for the LSV. Can’t remember the last mod we had.

CTP for Monday finally barks. Buckle up. “Model soundings indicate early low clouds should give way to brightening skies Monday, as the region breaks into the warm sector ahead of low pressure tracking across the lower Grt Lks. Heating of the moist/unstable airmass, combined with strong shear ahead of an upstream trough, will set the stage for severe weather during the PM hours. The strongest mid level flow and best chance of severe weather appears focused over the southern tier counties. However, deep layer shear of 40kts+, combined with MLCAPE in the 1000-20000 J/kg range, will support a risk of all severe hazards over a good portion of Central PA. The latest SPC Outlook paints an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across Central Pennsylvania and a Slight Risk for the rest of the area. Severe wind probabilities are some of the highest we get this time of year in the Lower Susquehanna Valley down into the Chesapeake Bay region. Tornadoes will also be possible with favorable 0-1km SRH values of 150 m2/s2 and STP of 1+. A mix of semi- discrete storms and some clusters will develop in the afternoon and then could congeal into a bowing MCS into the evening, especially across the south. Flash flooding will maximize late Monday afternoon and evening as storm motions slow down and training becomes more likely. An active afternoon and evening appears increasingly likely across the mid- Atlantic with damaging winds”

I’m up in Harrisburg but tomorrow will be a real deal from here south through this region. If I were chasing it’d set up in Hagerstown first and then if necessary move S toward Leesburg if necessary (but I doubt it would be - ability to move north into PA will be worthwhile). CAPE and shear are set up regardless of PM sun.

It’s just now raining. Very very light - probably will get less than .05”. Let’s hope tomorrow is an equally big bust.

Just remembered we have no radar so tomorrow afternoon is going to be rough to know just how severe our storms will be.

SPC all in on severe wind threat tomorrow. 45% (for 65+ knot winds( in southern tier, 30% for most everyone else. Have to iirc go back to June 2013 for the last time we saw these high chances of catastrophic winds.

Atmosphere will be so primed Sun won’t even mater really. A major MCS will set up - just a question of how far north.

I’d go toward Hagerstown but yea York isn’t a bad spot to base.

Shear and CAPE #s tomorrow are very good. Might not even need prolonged afternoon sun to fire supercells.

Day 2 SPC map has all off is us slight and the southwest area in enhanced

I’m DC and it’s rocking a 73% humidity so even at 85 my sweat is sweating.

Sterling has a great write up for Monday. CTP has nada. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Monday continues to be shaping up to be a potential impactful weather day with increasing confidence for severe thunderstorms in our forecast area. A strong mid-level trough will eject from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley by Monday. The trough is expected to strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted during the day on Monday. In response, surface low pressure will develop over Southern Michigan and track into Southern Ontario during the day. Models differ on the idea of a prefrontal shortwave ahead of the trough, which may lead to early convection on Monday out ahead of the main trough. This has led to uncertainty regarding the amount of destabilization. Out ahead of the system, the air mass is expected to become very moist as a result of strengthening southerly winds. Most of the guidance shows precipitable water values near or exceeding 2” east of the Blue Ridge with values over 1.75 west of the Blue Ridge. This increasing moisture advection may lead to low-level clouds and precipitation which may also hinder destabilization during the day, resulting in further uncertainty. Despite the uncertainty, with the trough becoming negatively tilted, mid-level flow is expected to increase across the area with most guidance showing bulk shear values from 30-40 knots. East of the Blue Ridge, there is a stronger signal for increased low-level flow, with soundings showing 0-3 km shear on the order of 20-30 knots which bears watching for potential low-level rotation within some storms. Given the strong forcing and the 30-40 Knots of bulk shear, any sunshine in the afternoon may provide ample instability on the order of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE to fuel severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds, large hail, and even a few isolated tornadoes possible. We will continue to monitor this system as it approaches and uncertainty decreases.

Amen

Glad someone is. A major threat - extremely rare for august. I still think extensive extreme wind is the biggest threat.

If a tornado happens where you have no radar coverage, is it even a tornado?

CTP not even mentioning the threat of severe weather in its discussion for Monday is crazy imo

And I’m in Lemoyne now and it didn’t even rain here. Sharp cutoff. Linglestown got nailed.

And only .04” rain.

Had pea sized hail