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canderson

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Everything posted by canderson

  1. Yea they’re doing well it seems - my extended family SE of them not so much.
  2. That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. Edit: it’s not a bust - just not meeting modeling from last night outside the NAM.
  3. I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff.
  4. CTP with some humor this morning Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared to the previous cycle. What could go wrong? Typical uncertainty surrounding the depth and northward push of the mid level warm nose. This shows up the most along and south of the PA Turnpike where sleet/freezing rain could cut down on snow totals.
  5. This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating
  6. The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol
  7. The NWS is going to look very bad if the nam is right. Yikes.
  8. Ok so let’s say we know meet is coming. Should we shovel the 10” or whatever if slow late afternoon or let it all fall and deal with it Monday as a frozen icebox?
  9. My temp isn’t super super accurate probably- I have a tiny bit of snow left and the gauge is above that.
  10. First anecdote evidence is it’s snowing in Dallas where sleet/zr was forecast by the nam and other short term models last night. My parents east of Dallas have heat sleet currently.
  11. Yea a skating rink of sleet my parents say.
  12. Going to bed. It’s down to 8 in the city already.
  13. This is the opposite of the Office Pam “these are the same images” meme
  14. in the gfs* we trust * it’s been dogshit for 6 months, maybe a broken clock …
  15. One of my best friends is originally from Pottsville and every Christmas gets some of that. It’s not bad!
  16. I don’t think anyone is being down - just knowing the NAM can sniff out thermals well sometimes. And sometimes it acts like it’s had half a liter of babushka vodka
  17. It wasn’t over when the Germans bombed Pearl Har … wait what?
  18. If the nam is right they should just shut down the GFS.
  19. The NAM might be correct about this warm push. It really cuts back on snow totals to the south. edit I mean southern MD/VA south
  20. Is he a young guy somewhat fresh out of school? He seems to be quite defensive and “online persona evocative” and not acting like he is speaking on behalf of others.
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