canderson

Latest disco from CTP Minor adjustments made to hourly precip type across the Lower Susq Valley and Somerset County later Sunday morning into Sunday evening as models have become more bullish on a deeper layer of Wet Bulbs in the +2 to +4C range nosing into Somerset County and areas SE of I-81 in the Lower Susq Valley (within the 5-9 KFT AGL layer), leading to a mix or even a change to sleet there. The wedge of slightly above zero C wet bulbs aloft, spreading in from the south/southwest following the strong isent lift at the nose of the 65 to 75 KT LLJ (will be 2-3 kft thicker across Lancaster and York Counties, compared to the Laurel Highlands), so snow totals across the far SE part of the CWA could be 10" or slightly less - depending on the duration of the sleet.

There was just enough time between those February storms for the city to get its act together.

Today is the anniversary of the 2016 storm that dropped the most snow in a single event ever in Harrisburg. 32” was actually too much snow - had to have front-end loaders and dump trucks remove snow from our area to get out many days later.

Shovel early, while still snowing, so you have a base layer of snow to help the sleet not fuse with pavement

Crossing fingers Dr No is Dr Yes

A true nowcast storm!

Yea they’re doing well it seems - my extended family SE of them not so much.

That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. Edit: it’s not a bust - just not meeting modeling from last night outside the NAM.

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff.

CTP with some humor this morning Forecast remains largely on track with only minor changes compared to the previous cycle. What could go wrong? Typical uncertainty surrounding the depth and northward push of the mid level warm nose. This shows up the most along and south of the PA Turnpike where sleet/freezing rain could cut down on snow totals.

This makes the fact we are talking sleet and zr honestly quite infuriating

The last GFS lost the weekend blizzard in its entirety lol

The NWS is going to look very bad if the nam is right. Yikes.

Ok so let’s say we know meet is coming. Should we shovel the 10” or whatever if slow late afternoon or let it all fall and deal with it Monday as a frozen icebox?

1-3 6-10 2-4 for me they say

My temp isn’t super super accurate probably- I have a tiny bit of snow left and the gauge is above that.

First anecdote evidence is it’s snowing in Dallas where sleet/zr was forecast by the nam and other short term models last night. My parents east of Dallas have heat sleet currently.

Yea a skating rink of sleet my parents say.

Might not break 20 degrees for the next 8 days

Got down to 4 overnight

Going to bed. It’s down to 8 in the city already.

This is the opposite of the Office Pam “these are the same images” meme

in the gfs* we trust * it’s been dogshit for 6 months, maybe a broken clock …

One of my best friends is originally from Pottsville and every Christmas gets some of that. It’s not bad!

I don’t think anyone is being down - just knowing the NAM can sniff out thermals well sometimes. And sometimes it acts like it’s had half a liter of babushka vodka