dryslot

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don't know that this utter bomb will tick

Once it starts chasing the convection out ahead it will.

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We should start seeing a tick or two back east overnight into tomorrow.

That's how these usually go, The messenger shuffle, God rest (Scotts) soul.

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have a feeling I may melt as it takes hours and hours for the precip to crawl up here tomorrow. Just warning you guys up front. LOL

You won't even be able keep up with the page counts of post, Then when it kicks in here there will be 6 of us that takes 3/hrs to get thru 2 pages.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Eh. It could. There could be a period of 15-20:1 on top of the paste for anyone that gets sub 32°. Like I said before, we did that in Oct 11. I had 19”, but there wasn’t near 1.90” QPF here. But we got down to 31° at night during that extreme death band. 

I agree if you get below freezing at the surface, That what may happen here as its going to fall the heaviest after sunset,  But out of the gate the ground truth will not yield those ratios.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I was thinking ratios maybe 12:1 - 13:1 if you can maximize the lift into the DGZ

No way, Not that high, Not to start anyways.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like this has NW tics coming.

That is a potent s/w down south, Your also getting some earlier phasing now to as the explosive development yesterday was cape north and now its seems to be around LI to the cape further south.

These NW tics are not helping areas just away from the coast, Going to need to see this tic back east in the next 12hrs or so.

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah the NAM usually has that 1 late 12z run that sucks me back in with something huge and then I get Charlie Browned by the rest of the suite. There’s a good bet for near warning snows, but toss the exotic solution...for now.

I think the the 3K Nam has the right idea until proven wrong, It does side with all the other guidance except the 12K, Although the 12k Nam is quite wound up i would question it having that warm layer aloft.

Yesterday you got your whiff run, Today is the zoinked run, Now you know your truly back to winter with the Nam.

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Careful with the 10:1 weenie maps. Not sure this is 10:1 except for a brief time in and up. 

It will end up 7-9:1 except at the end, These always do.

Smoked

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I said a lot without saying anything lol

Politician?

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll sick Wolfie on him.

lol

Really don't need any NW tics at this stage with this air mass.

Boom

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

yeah, don't see a big shift east, will see in a few frames

This should be a couple tics west actually.

Liking the look early on on the 0z GFS, Bit sharper trough.

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The RGEM increased by a foot here from 18z, ICON increased by probably even more. 

Listening to you and randy react to when ea model run comes out the last couple days shows that you guys in the Mid Atlantic have had the rug pulled out from you more times then keeping your footing......ha ha.

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Anything going over the canal at this time of year and with this air mass in place cannot be good for us in E SNE.

Yeah, SE areas are definitely having issues with that track, This air mass is marginal to begin with, Climo is not on that side.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem has some funny looking clown maps with that warmish low level

 

That's ominous.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

It’s really struggling in the lower levels even though it has like 850 temps of -5C in the CCB lol. 

Kind of weird, but I’d think that would be pretty good for a lot of people who get under that CCB. That’s intense. 

-5c, ha, Yeah,  lol, I could only see the crappy maps with no upper air maps, So surface look only.

0z RGEM looked warm and wet.

My name is dryslot and i approve this message.

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like when this is the case the outcome is never good for us. 

And you would be right.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There is a crap ton of convection that forms off the mid-Atlantic coast...so many low centers on the run all focused towards the convection. 

When there is a lot of convection involved it always seem to interfere with the slp track to the east