I would not expect them to go balls in out of the gate, Ratios won't be real high in this especially from the start but should get better as we get colder thru the column but how much precip falls before that is the question.
And in the end, I think this is where it will be, You could have said this even yesterday as you had the goal post of GFS south and Euro north, I think you had said or Scott said somewhere in the middle.