dryslot

I've got a man on this, He told me he would continue to keep an eye on it for us.

But it is, Just like Carlos Correa is from the Giants.

The hefty qpf totals that models were projecting over a broad area also are starting to drop off some so that's a plus as well.

Before she came.

The wind potential with these higher sustained winds then you add in the gust potential will be devastating, CMP has elected to keep all the crews that have been here from out of state here throughout

The AFD from GYX is a good statement to its potential, .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The forecast for a high impact storm system starting Thursday night and lasting through Friday night has changed little since the previous forecast package. On Thursday night stacked low pressure within a sharply negative 500 mb trough axis will approach from the Great Lakes region with a surface warm front lifting northward. This will result in overrunning precipitation breaking out over the CWA from southwest to northeast through the overnight hours. Boundary layer and surface temperatures across southern NH and coastal ME should be warm enough for this to just fall as plain rain but across the foothills and points north temperatures are expected to be cold enough for a period of mixed wintry precipitation. Later Thursday night temperatures aloft will continue to warm but ground temperatures will likely remain near the freezing mark and therefore locally slippery travel will be possible until temperatures warm to above freezing areawide by Friday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed should confidence for slippery travel increase as we near this event. We will then sit in the warm sector for much of Friday with temperatures warming into the middle 40s across the north to the middle 50s in southern NH and coastal ME. Increasing mixing of a southeasterly 75-100 kt 850 mb LLJ and 50-75 kt 925 mb jet will result in increasing wind gusts up to 40-55 mph from late morning onward, especially across the coastal plain, higher terrain, and downslope of the White Mountains. Across the foothills, a lingering inversion may limit wind gusts until later Friday afternoon, with gusts mostly in the 40-50 mph range. Given the potential high impact of winds of this magnitude and direction as well as the recent power outages from our last event, went ahead and hoisted a High Wind Watch for much of the region in order to provide more lead time to power crews. Rainfall will also increase through the day with ensemble means pointing towards PWATs increasing to around 1.00" amongst strong theta-e advection and dew points climbing well into the 40s. There is the potential for rainfall rates up to around 1"/hr and should this occur instances of flash flooding remain possible, especially where snow cover remains and the ground is frozen. A Flood Watch was not issued with this forecast package given the threat for river flooding will mostly be limited to Saturday but a watch may be needed in the near future. A potent cold front will then sweep across the forecast area from west to east on Friday afternoon and evening, bringing sharply colder temperatures and the potential for a period of damaging wind gusts. The region of greatest concern is across the coastal plain of ME, Seacoast of NH, and across the higher terrain where gusts up to 65 mph are possible. There is some potential for locally higher gusts across the Mid-Coast as this front crosses. This front may be accompanied by a fine line/squall line, which would increase the likelihood for wind damage. Once the front crosses the threat for heavy rainfall and damaging winds will diminish, although it will remain breezy through Friday night with gusts up to 40 mph. Temperatures will rapidly fall behind the front, allowing any remaining precipitation to transition to snow before ending and setting the stage for a potential flash freeze. This could result in rapidly deteriorating travel conditions on Friday evening through the overnight hours, especially since no salt will be left on area roadways after the heavy rainfall. Sub-freezing temperatures will then return behind this system through early next week along with gusty winds, sending wind chill values down into the single digits either side of zero. This will unfortunately exasperate the impacts from remaining power outages.

I'm afraid its going to be unfortunately.

Some of these projected wind gust on the 12z NAM 3k are pretty intense over a very large area at peak.

I have 90lbs of propane jut in case.

We are in rare air for these up here, URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Gray ME 259 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033-NHZ001>006-009-010-012>014-212000- /O.NEW.KGYX.HW.A.0004.221223T1200Z-221224T0700Z/ Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Southern Somerset-Interior York-Central Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo- Interior Cumberland Highlands-Northern Coos-Southern Coos- Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Belknap-Strafford-Eastern Hillsborough-Interior Rockingham-Coastal Rockingham- Including the cities of Upton, Wilsons Mills, Andover, Byron, Middle Dam, Roxbury, South Arm, Coburn Gore, Davis, Oquossoc, Rangeley, Avon, Kingfield, Phillips, New Portland, Brassua, Long Pond, Moosehead, Pittston Farm, Seboomook, Bingham, Jackman, Bethel, Bryant Pond, Hanover, Locke Mills, Milton, Newry, Rumford, Norway, Fryeburg, Oxford, Farmington, New Sharon, New Vineyard, Temple, Wilton, Chesterville, Jay, Athens, Cornville, Skowhegan, Palmyra, Pittsfield, Embden, Madison, Hollis, Alfred, Lebanon, Sanford, Goodwins Mills, Buxton, Limington, Berwick, New Gloucester, Gray, North Windham, Gorham, Greene, Lewiston, Sabattus, Wales, Minot, Turner, Auburn, Livermore Falls, Augusta, Sidney, Windsor, Vassalboro, Waterville, China, Palermo, Brooks, Jackson, Knox, Liberty, Montville, Morrill, Waldo, Winterport, Unity, Biddeford, Saco, Old Orchard Beach, Kittery, Portland, Cape Elizabeth, South Portland, Westbrook, Yarmouth, Brunswick, Arrowsic, Bath, Phippsburg, Bowdoinham, Topsham, Bowdoin, Whitefield, Dresden, Alna, Bremen, Bristol, Damariscotta, Newcastle, Boothbay Harbor, Wiscasset, Waldoboro, Owls Head, Rockland, Appleton, Camden, Hope, Rockport, Thomaston, Belfast, Northport, Searsmont, Lincolnville, Bridgton, Harrison, Naples, Errol, Millsfield, Colebrook, Berlin, Dummer, Milan, York Pond, Lancaster, Bethlehem, Lincoln, Littleton, Sugar Hill, Thornton, Waterville Valley, Woodstock, North Conway, Albany, Conway, Chatham, Crawford Notch, Lyme, Ashland, Ellsworth, Holderness, Plymouth, Rumney, Wakefield, Bridgewater, Brookfield, Ossipee, Tuftonboro, Wolfeboro, Moultonborough, Laconia, Gilford, Meredith, Barrington, Rochester, Dover, Rollinsford, Somersworth, Durham, Madbury, Manchester, Pelham, Nashua, Salem, Atkinson, Newton, Plaistow, Chester, Derry, Hampstead, Exeter, Greenland, Portsmouth, Rye, Hampton, Hampton Falls, North Hampton, and Seabrook 259 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph possible. * WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, west central, and western Maine. Portions of central, northern, and southern New Hampshire. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe location prior to the onset of winds. This includes outdoor holiday decorations. && $$ Tubbs

Right now, There isn't one model that doesn't show a thump for the elevations and northern parts of the state.

Good prelim analysis from GYX on this event. Friday Afternoon and Evening: Sharp cold front knocks on our western door and crosses most of the forecast area by early Friday evening. This period will be when the strongest winds occur. Highest gusts continue to be expected on the coastal plain of Maine, the Seacoast of NH, and the higher terrain where gusts of around 60 MPH will be possible. The Midcoast may see a few gusts around 70 MPH around 00z Sat. For the rest of the area, we are generally expecting 35-50 MPH gusts, but they could ratchet upward to around 60 MPH for an hour or two period right ahead of the front and in any convection. There may be a fineline with the front that could bring down damaging winds also as the front crosses the region. Power outages are likely unfortunately. No wind headlines yet as were are still pretty far out there temporally. Even though confidence is growing in wind impacts, southerly LLJ events can be tricky.

Looking kind of wedged for some areas, Trend on guidance has been ticking this a little east with more CAD over NNE.

Those surface temps and just off the deck are hanging very tough over NNH and WME on the Nam, That would certainly hold as a net gain in those areas verbatim this run.

Its really a shame we didn't have a HP anchored over QUE to pinch this warmth off as it progressed NE.

Maybe we should just keep a blind on everything going forward.

Its looking more like that will be the case, I'm quite exposed here to that wind direction so if we come even remotely close to what models are spitting out for winds at the surface especially as the cold front approaches, There's going to be big problems here in the coastal plain and along the coast especially with the astronomical high tides.

I think chances up there are better at least with some front snow end and possibly backside, But blow downs look to be again another problem.

I'm starting to compile at list of who SHOULD NOT be allowed to start threads and time frames.

Its coming down to wind and rain outside of the mountains starting as some frozen precip, Maybe something on the back end but i would never rely on that, I think nothing has changed on that front for days, Looks to flash freeze thereafter.

12z Nam is a disaster.

No, But they'll be plenty using his name in vain.......

Thanks, Hope i don't need it.

No firs surrounding that or any trees, I would have built a shed for it had it been the case.