mappy

Briefly hit 36 for a high. Back down to 34 now. 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Blech. Hrrr is warm. 

yeah does seem warmer for you and others south. 

18z HRRR covers the entire event. Quite a bit of QPF with it. I didn't think it was gonna be that much?

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

We should turn this thread to OBS

 

34.9/19.5 here in 21057

Yeah turning it into obs is fine

@ravensrule can you edit the title to include Obs?

24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Missed many pages. Are we raining?

Yeah. Sorry. 70s next week with maybe storms on Valentines Day

HRRR is has a lot more QPF than prior runs

17z HRRR a bit more widespread with precip after 8-9pm. DC gets a good band of frozen before midnight 

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How does sleet look tonight?

Maybe some light sleet for HoCo 10pmish per Euro. More widespread after midnight 

Euro not as icy as GFS

8 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Location does matter 

Fair. But you made the broad statement it wasn’t anything to worry about. Maybe for you. 

10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Tonight around 7-8pm 

There’s nothing really until much later 

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Hrrr says.. Not too many worries.. Not much freezing stuff.. Is it even reliable for this type of event? 

 

Hmm. 15z hrr has .2” qpf up here by 4am with more to come. I wouldn’t classify that as nothing to worry about 

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

So coming back from Frederick to Kemp Mill I need to leave Frederuck by what time to be safe?

When are you supposed to be traveling? Precip is out of the area by noon. Temps won’t get above freezing until around then too 

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

And temps never really get that warm after precip moves out. Maybe mid 30's by late day.

It’s def a worse case scenario for ice

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Buckle up. I took off tomorrow. 

I work from home, but am expecting a delay with school.

Not sure I believe the GFS output, it’s FRAM assumes all liquid will accrete onto surfaces. We know that heavier precip will run off before it can freeze and sleet piles up like snow instead of sticking to trees. Either way, looks like a messy morning.  

Just now, mappy said:

For what it’s worth, GFS is pretty icy for areas north of 70

For what it’s worth, GFS is pretty icy for areas north of 70

Just now, stormtracker said:

But of course

Ha! You wub me 

3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

You must be new here.....

This would have been funnier had you wrote knew instead 

Just now, hstorm said:

Thank you.  I deleted my (inaccurate) post once I saw yours!

All good! Each of those output options have little question marks next to it that explain what they represent  

Yep but it’s not worth getting into weatherside to avoid falling down a political rabbit hole 

Just now, hstorm said:

I believe that it does.  But someone who knows more can correct me if I'm wrong!

Even with sleet, the Northern VA numbers seem very high east of the Blue Ridge.

It doesn’t include sleet. Freezing rain only. The FRAM includes sleet, as well as all ice accretion. You should look at FRAM instead of the freezing rain

1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said:

does this include sleet?

No. Just liquid in the form of freezing rain. It doesn’t necessarily represent accretion on surfaces. 

6 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yeah if you pay for it

Ohhh. Shoot, sorry. I didn’t realize that was pay only 

6 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

3k NAM looks similar. Shows more on the ridges which tracks with experience with ice storms

 

You know there is a local view that shows the DMV area much better?