cheese007

P strong wording on the D3 and D4-8 outlooks. Already talking about upgrades to the former SPC AC 040729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move eastward Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern/central Plains. Strong tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted upper trough with embedded 50-70 kt mid-level speed maximum will eject northeastward across the northern/central Plains on Monday. At the surface, the primary low should consolidate over the northern High Plains of eastern MT/western ND and vicinity, with a secondary surface low possibly developing over the central High Plains by Monday evening. A rather moist low-level airmass, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 60s to low 70s, will spread northward across the southern/central Plains ahead of an eastward-mixing dryline. A warm front should eventually extend eastward across parts of NE/IA, and this boundary will probably be the northern limit of appreciable severe-thunderstorm potential. ...Southern/Central Plains... A severe-weather outbreak still appears possible across parts of the southern/central Plains on Monday, focused from south-central/ southeast NE into central/eastern KS and much of OK. Robust diurnal heating of the moist low-level airmass, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates overspreading much of the warm sector, will likely foster moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE generally ranging from 2000-3500 J/kg) by Monday afternoon. Enhanced mid-level winds and a favorably veering/strengthening wind profile with height through mid/upper levels will support around 40-55 kt of effective bulk shear, stronger with northward extent in KS/NE. Current expectations are for scattered supercells to erupt along the length of the dryline in south-central NE and western/central KS by mid to late Monday afternoon, coincident with stronger large-scale ascent overspreading this region. Given the rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, very large to giant hail (2-4 inch diameter) will likely be a threat with these initial supercells. The threat for tornadoes should quickly increase through the late afternoon and early evening in tandem with a strengthening southerly low-level jet. Ample 0-1 km and effective SRH shown in various NAM/GFS forecast soundings suggest a threat for strong tornadoes with any supercell that can remain discrete. With time Monday evening and into early Tuesday morning, upscale growth into multiple linear structures is probable, with an increased threat for severe/damaging winds, along with embedded tornadoes given the forecast strength of the low-level shear. The southward extent of the substantial severe risk into OK and north TX remains somewhat uncertain, as better forcing for ascent will tend to remain across the central Plains. Still, modest mid-level height falls should encourage isolated to perhaps widely scatted supercells developing along the length of the dryline into the southern Plains. Very large hail and strong tornadoes will be the main threats with any supercell that can develop and persist across this region Monday afternoon/evening. Model trends will also be monitored for a more favorable corridor of strong tornadoes and giant hail, which may necessitate greater severe probabilities for Monday in a later outlook. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040900 SPC AC 040900 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... An active period of organized severe thunderstorms should persist into at least the middle of next week across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, Mid-South, and Midwest/OH Valley. The 15% severe areas for both Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday have been expanded based on latest model trends. ...Day 4/Tuesday... The primary upper low over the northern Plains is forecast to gradually occlude on Tuesday. But, a strong mid-level jet streak should overspread parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest through the day. A secondary surface low should develop northeastward across these regions, with a warm front also lifting northward towards southern WI and southern Lower MI. Thunderstorms related to low-level warm advection and activity that has spread eastward from the southern/central Plains may be ongoing Tuesday morning. It remains unclear if these thunderstorms will strengthen once again as they develop eastward in tandem with a destabilizing warm sector. Additional robust convection will likely develop Tuesday afternoon farther south along the dryline over the Ozarks and Mid-South. A favorable parameter space for supercells and all severe hazards remains evident, with the threat for severe thunderstorms continuing Tuesday afternoon/evening across parts of the OH Valley. ...Day 5/Wednesday... Although some differences in model guidance regarding the upper-air pattern across the central/eastern CONUS begin to emerge by Wednesday, there is still good agreement that a belt of strong mid-level flow will remain in place from the southern/central Plains northeastward to the OH Valley and Great Lakes. It appears that another embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley by Wednesday evening. A very moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass should reside to the east of a cold front/dryline across these regions, potentially extending as far north into much of the Midwest/OH Valley. Strong deep-layer shear will favor organized convection, including supercells and bowing line segments posing a threat for all severe hazards. Depending on the influence of prior convection, the very favorable parameter space forecast for Wednesday across parts of the southern Plains into the mid MS Valley and OH Valley may necessitate greater severe probabilities in a later outlook. ...Day 6/Thursday... Multiple days of robust and potentially widespread convection complicates the severe potential for Thursday. Still, some severe risk remains evident along/south of what will probably be a convectively reinforced front/boundary extending across parts of the southern Plains into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. It is possible that one or more 15% severe areas for Thursday will be needed for these regions given favorable forecast instability/shear. But, this is still dependent on better agreement in model guidance regarding the extent/placement of moderate to strong instability, and overall convective coverage Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Day 7/Friday and Day 8/Saturday... The spatial extent of the warm sector should tend to become more confined late next week and into the weekend. There is a fair amount of spread in model guidance regarding the strength and placement of an upper trough/low over the eastern CONUS in this time frame. Still, a severe risk may continue Friday along/south of a front that should be in place over parts of the Southeast. Any lingering severe threat into Saturday may be even farther south and confined to mainly parts of FL. ..Gleason.. 05/04/2024

D1 ENH with a 10% sigtor hatch on tap for today Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Sat May 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the southern High Plains into the Hill Country of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Several storms may produce very large hail, and a couple strong tornadoes are possible. ...Southern High Plains to the Hill Country of TX... Water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This feature will advance across northern Mexico by early evening as a 500mb speed max translates toward the Big Bend of west TX, subsequently moving into central TX by 05/12z. A reservoir of very moist/unstable air will reside across south TX/Edwards Plateau into portions of west TX. Robust convection will easily develop ahead of the short wave and quickly become severe during the afternoon. Very large hail and the threat for tornadoes can reasonably be expected. Early this morning, surface pressures are building across the central Plains in the wake of ejecting northern-stream short-wave trough. Surface front will surge across the TX South Plains early in the period, and will likely arc along/near I-20 into southeast NM by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the wind shift across far west TX into the Trans Pecos. Forecast soundings, south of the front, suggest surface parcels will reach their convective temperatures by 20z, just east of the dryline. This feature will be forced deep into west TX and will be one of the foci for convective development, along with the cold front. Latest NAM PFC for INK at 20z exhibits MLCAPE on the order of 3500 J/kg with surface-6km bulk shear around 45kt. Scattered supercells will likely develop by mid afternoon and quickly attain severe levels. This activity will grow upscale and shift downstream, aided by the progressive short wave. In response to the short wave, LLJ is forecast to focus across west TX through early evening then strengthen and shift east toward the I-35 corridor by sunrise Sunday. Initial convective mode will be supercellular and very large hail can be expected. Additionally, moistening boundary layer will support tornadoes, possibly strong, as shear will be strong. With time, MCS is expected to mature and propagate toward central TX during the overnight hours. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 05/04/2024

Jesus that thing has an eye on radar

Bi-modal D1 risk with the southern section upgraded to ENH. D2 slight for the Permian Basin area Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE WEST TEXAS CAPROCK ONTO ADJOINING LOW ROLLING PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE ENHANCED AREA...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts are possible over parts of the central/southern Great Plains from southern Nebraska to west Texas, along with some tornado potential over parts of west Texas. ...Synopsis... Today's transitional mid/upper-level synoptic pattern is a tale of two cyclones -- one astride the Upper Midwest/Canadian border, and another digging southeastward out of the Gulf of Alaska. The broad, complex leading cyclone will eject northeastward over MB and northwestern ON through the period. A trailing shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over parts of southern ID and northern NV -- will move east-northeastward to eastern SD and central NE by 12Z tomorrow. The strong, well-developed Pacific cyclone will proceed southeastward to just off the coast of OR by the end of the period. Southwest flow aloft will be maintained with weak synoptic-scale height rises over most of the central/southern Plains. Still, sufficient moisture, buoyancy, lift and shear are apparent for a couple relative maxima in severe potential as discussed below. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low attached to a cold front over south-central WY. The front should proceed southeastward through the day, extending from southeastern SD to western NE an central CO by 00Z, with the low over northeastern CO. By 12Z tomorrow, the front should extend from a low over IA to south- central KS, the northern TX Panhandle, and north-central NM. This front will overtake a developing dryline over the central High Plains from north-south, with the dryline position at 00Z over eastern CO, the western TX Panhandle, and Permian Basin. A weak/ residual, nearly stationary front extended from a low near FST northeastward across northwest TX, eastern OK and the Ozarks, and should continue to lose definition amidst considerable convective outflow. The southern rim of that outflow was evident from southeast TX (between GLS-BPT) across the HOU metro then west- northwestward to near SJT. The western part will shift northward slowly through the day toward the front, which itself should drift northward up the Caprock. ...West/southwest TX... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon near the dryline and the residual outflow boundary over the South Plains to Low Rolling Plains/Concho Valley regions. Isolated to widely scattered convection possible farther south off the dryline past the Rio Grande, and into strongly heated/CINH- minimized higher terrain of the Serranias del Burro range in northern Coahuila. This activity should move eastward across areas below the Caprock and around the Big Country to Edwards Plateau, with potential for some of the Mexican convection to cross the Rio Grande this evening as well. Supercells -- with large to very large hail and at least isolated potential for tornadoes -- will be more probable in and near the 30%/"enhanced" hail area. Dryline and orographic activity to the south will be an early hail/wind threat. Some of this activity may aggregate into clusters offering mainly strong-severe gusts, with one or two small MCSs possible this evening into the early overnight hours. Despite multiple days of MCS and smaller-scale convective activity to the east and southeast, a reservoir of rich low-level moisture remains not far upstream across south-central TX and into the southern Edwards Plateau, where upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and PW commonly 1-1.5 inches. When advected northwestward amid diurnal heating and beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE should become common. Though low-level flow should not be particularly strong, it will be backed, contributing to elongated hodographs ad around 30-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. Splitting storms may be common early, offering the greatest hail potential (size and coverage). The damaging-wind threat will be maximized on the mesoscale where organized cold pools can develop, and should extend farther east at greater density than the hail potential this evening into tonight. In the absence of substantial large-scale support, tornado potential will be locally maximized with any supercells that can interact favorably with outflow boundaries or each other. ...Central Plains... Large hail and severe gusts are possible from mid/late afternoon into tonight, from thunderstorms shifting eastward across portions of the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 05/03/2024 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms posing a threat for very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes should occur across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across a broader portion of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low will move east-southeastward over the western states on Saturday. Downstream, a shortwave trough will advance quickly east-northeastward across the Upper Midwest through the day. A related weak surface low should develop from IA towards IL in the same time frame. A cold front will extend southwestward from this low across parts of the mid MS Valley into the southern Plains. A subtle/low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico and the southern High Plains by late Saturday afternoon. This feature may provide sufficient lift to support isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms across parts of the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon/evening. ...Southern High Plains... A weak surface low should be in place over parts of far west TX and north-central Mexico through the day, with a dryline extending southward from this low. A southward-moving cold front should eventually intersect the dryline by late Saturday afternoon. Diurnal heating of a very moist low-level airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/locally strong instability across west TX and southeastern NM. Convective initiation appears likely along both boundaries Saturday afternoon and evening. Although low-level flow should remain rather weak through the day, a favorably veering and slowly strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels will support around 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Robust thunderstorms that develop should quickly become supercellular and pose a threat for very large hail. Occasional severe/damaging downdraft winds may also occur. The tornado threat should be modulated to some extent by weak low-level flow and modest 0-1 km shear through much of the afternoon. Still, a few tornadoes appear possible towards Saturday evening with any persistent supercell as an easterly low-level jet strengthens. A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of west TX and southeastern NM where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring. ...Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ozarks/Southern Plains... A line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning along or just ahead of the cold front, extending from IA into eastern KS. Even with a nocturnal minimum in instability, occasional damaging winds may occur with this line before it eventually weakens by late morning. Eventual redevelopment appears probable across parts of the mid MS Valley/Midwest by Saturday afternoon, as daytime heating ahead of the front fosters weak to moderate MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear appears marginal to support organized convection (around 25-30 kt). But, some small clusters may consolidate and pose an isolated threat for damaging winds and hail as they spread eastward across parts of the Midwest through Saturday afternoon, before slowly weakening Saturday evening with the loss of daytime heating. There also appears to be some chance for convection across west TX to spread eastward across much of OK/TX Saturday evening/night as the weak shortwave trough continues eastward across these areas. With moderate to strong MUCAPE present along/south of the cold front, some of this activity could pose a continued threat for isolated severe hail and gusty winds. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024

Gonna be a busy week next week Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/MON... ...DISCUSSION... A multi-day period of organized severe thunderstorm potential appears likely across parts of the central to eastern CONUS next week, beginning on Day 4/Monday across the Plains, and continuing through at least Day 6/Wednesday. ...Day 4/Monday... A negatively tilted upper trough will eject northeastward over the northern/central Plains on Monday. Pronounced low-level mass response will encourage rich low-level moisture to advect northward over the southern/central Plains, as a surface low rapidly deepens over the northern High Plains. Strong deep-layer shear and at least moderate instability are expected to be in place ahead of a surface dryline extending across the southern/central Plains. Thunderstorms will likely erupt along the length of the dryline by late Monday afternoon from southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. Supercells are likely to be the dominant mode initially given the strength of the deep-layer shear. Both very large hail and tornadoes will be possible with these supercells as they spread eastward across the southern/central Plains through Monday evening. With a southerly low-level jet forecast to strengthen to at least 50-60 kt Saturday evening, a corresponding rapid increase in low-level shear will likely support a continued threat for tornadoes with any discrete convection. Some of these tornadoes could be strong. The severe threat will likely continue Monday night with eastward extent across the Plains, before convection possibly weakens some towards early Tuesday morning. Given increased confidence in high-end severe potential, a 30% severe area has been introduced from parts of southern NE into central KS and north-central OK. ...Day 5/Tuesday... The large-scale upper trough/low is forecast to gradually occlude over the northern Plains on Tuesday. But, an enhanced mid-level jet and embedded vorticity maximum will likely overspread parts of the Upper Midwest, mid MS Valley, and OH Valley through Tuesday evening. An expansive warm sector will likely be in place across these regions ahead of a surface cold front/dryline. Robust convection should develop along/ahead of these boundaries through the day. Sufficient instability and deep-layer shear will likely exist to support organized severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards. The northeastward extent of the warm sector remains somewhat uncertain into the OH Valley. Still, some severe risk will probably persist into Tuesday evening/night with eastward extent across the mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley/Midwest. Expansion of the 15% severe area may be needed in later outlooks, pending better model agreement and increased confidence in the eastward extent of rich low-level moisture and related instability. ...Day 6/Wednesday... The upper trough/low should gradually evolve eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday. While there are still some differences in model guidance regarding the evolution of an embedded shortwave trough, there appears to be enough agreement in the synoptic pattern to include a 15% severe delineation for Wednesday for parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Ozarks and towards the mid MS Valley. Across these areas, strong instability is forecast to develop east of a front/dryline. With enhanced mid-level flow persisting with a westerly mid/upper-level jet, organized severe thunderstorms should once again develop Wednesday afternoon. Supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards may occur. The northern/eastern extent of the severe threat is unclear, as the convection from Tuesday may tend to limit better low-level moisture return into the OH/TN Valleys. Depending on model trends over the next few days, the 15% severe area may need to be expanded to include these regions. ...Day 7/Thursday and Day 8/Friday... Some severe threat may continue on Thursday from parts of TX into the lower MS Valley/Southeast, generally along/south of a front and any convection that develops Wednesday. Too much uncertainty currently exists to include a 15% severe area at this time, but trends will be monitored. A severe risk also appears possible next Friday across the same general regions, but confidence in the placement of the front and convection is even lower than Thursday. ..Gleason.. 05/03/2024

Gonna be a very close call for Abilene if this can put another tor down

Nice tor on the Abilene storm on Bob Pack's stream

What do you mean it's totally correct

SPC has highlighted a swath of the plains from TX to NE for D6. May is in full swing! Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0403 AM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... For Saturday/D4 to Sunday/D5, scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms are possible over a large section of the CONUS from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Mid 60s F to lower 70s F dewpoints will be common across the entire area, aided by southerly surface winds around an East Coast high. Aloft, generally weak flow will exist over the same areas, well east of a developing western upper trough. As such, the weak shear will likely minimize overall severe potential through Sunday/D5. For Monday/D6, models have shown increased run-to-run consistency in depicting a deep upper trough developing over the Great Basin and emerging into the Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of this system, which is forecast to enter the central Plains with a negative tilt and strong shear. While minor trough-geometry differences exist amongst the models, the combination of strengthening shear, a potentially deep surface low and ample moisture and instability necessitate introducing severe probabilities for parts of the Plains on Monday. All facets of severe appear possible with such a system, including supercells, squall lines, tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail. ..Jewell.. 05/01/2024

Had at least a brief tor on it per spotter

Dickson might get round 2

About to get tor number 3

Might be about to be hit again

Bryce Shelton and Brett Adair have different angles of a massive wedge that went through Minden

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/brett.adair Stunning shot on Brett's stream

Just took out the News 6 camera at the airport in Omaha

https://www.ketv.com/nowcast lowering on the Omaha cell

Freddy McKinney has a clear-ish shot

Lucio has the storm that made the wedge. Tor still on the ground https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/null

HUGE wedge on Vince Waeiti's stream (forum wont let me link it)

https://livestormchasing.com/chasers/mike.prendergast stream of TX tor

confirmed tor south of West, TX

ENH expanded southward with sigtor hatching added

Thursday bumped up to ENH SPC AC 231831 Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS... AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes will all be possible. Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance. Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle, with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very large hail is anticipated with initial development across west-central/southwest KS as well. In both of these areas, storms are expected to move east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete mode can be maintained.