cheese007

Heading in the direction of Wichita Falls. Depending on how things shake out may end up doubling back to DFW if the "tail end charlie" ends up down here

D1 Mod risk is a big jump in one go (though with the caveat it is Broyles) Forecast Discussion SPC AC 150601 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION... ...SUMMARY... Widespread severe storms associated with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes are expected today across parts of the southern and central Plains. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts above 70 knots will be likely along the more intense parts of a fast-moving line of storms. A severe threat is also expected to develop in parts of the Southeast, and in parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Significant Severe Weather Event Expected Today Across Parts of the Southern and Central Plains... ...Southern and Central Plains... A shortwave trough will move into the central U.S. today, as an associated 80 to 95 knot upper-level jet moves into the southern Plains. Ahead of the jet max, a moist and very unstable airmass will be in place from parts of central and north Texas into western Oklahoma and the eastern Texas Panhandle. At the surface, a low will deepen across the southern High Plains as a cold front moves southward through the central High Plains. Ahead of the front, surface heating and increasing low-level convergence will likely result in convective initiation early this afternoon. Storms will rapidly increase in coverage along an axis of strong instability from southwest Kansas south-southeastward across the far northeastern Texas Panhandle and into western Oklahoma. As storms grow upscale, MCS development is expected to occur late this afternoon and be maintained through the evening. By midday, a narrow corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from northwest Texas extending north-northwestward into southwest Kansas. MLCAPE is forecast to reach the 3000 to 4500 J/Kg range by mid afternoon. In addition, RAP forecast soundings have low to mid-level lapse rates approaching 9.0 C/km. This potent thermodynamic environment will be augmented by an increase of deep-layer shear throughout the day, as an upper-level jet moves in from the west-southwest. Upon approach, an increase in large-scale ascent will be coupled with strengthening deep-layer shear. RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear could reach 60 to 70 knots along the instability axis, which will be very favorable for severe storms. The current thinking is that cells will first initiate in the early afternoon, with supercells forming rather quickly. A small cluster is expected to rapidly expand during the mid afternoon, as a line of supercells develops. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, along with a tornado threat will be possible with the more intense supercells. As the convective cluster grows upscale in the mid to late afternoon, a Derecho will become possible as an organized severe line segment moves southeastward across the southern Plains. Wind gusts ahead of the more intense parts of the line will likely be greater than 70 knots. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with a continued threat for large hail from late afternoon into the evening. The MCS, associated with a potential for damaging wind gusts, could move into the Ark-La-Tex by mid to late evening, and into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley during the overnight period. ...Southeast... A shortwave trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states today, as a cold front advances southward across toward the central and eastern Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F, will contribute to strong destabilization by afternoon. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range by afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the front, and will likely be concentrated along pre-existing outflow boundaries. The greatest coverage could occur from far southern Alabama extending eastward into northern Florida, where strong deep-layer shear is forecast to be strong and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. This should lead to a wind-damage threat in the late morning and early afternoon, as storms gradually intensify. An isolated tornado threat and potential for large hail will also likely exist with the stronger cells. The severe threat should move toward the immediate coastal areas during the afternoon as the cold front advances southward. Further northeast into southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina, moderate instability is forecast to develop by midday. A vorticity maximum is expected to move eastward across southern South Carolina around midday, which should support scattered convective development. Thunderstorms that form within the stronger instability could be associated with isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. ...Ohio... An upper-level trough will move southeastward today across the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances southeastward into Indiana and Ohio. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 60s F. As surface temperatures warm along the moist axis during the day, a pocket of moderate instability is forecast by early afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely form along and ahead of the front, moving southeastward into the Ohio Valley. RAP forecast soundings near this maximum in instability have MLCAPE peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 8.0 C/Km. This should be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat with the more intense line segments. A threat for hail will also be possible. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 06/15/2023

Now up to baseball and half dollars

What might be a good target area?

Reed getting the goods

Looks like today was a dud for much of NTX

Looks like another south of the metro special up for today

Have there been any EF4s rated above 195 since the last EF5?

Story of the season. Hillsboro/Corsicana/Waco triangle gets slammed while DFW stays nice and calm

ENH risk for parts of the Ark/La/Tex mainly a hail/wind risk but a 5% tor was just added for parts of NTX including part of DFW SPC AC 101631 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. ..Thompson/Jirak.. 06/10/2023 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1847Z (1:47PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Decent ENH risk setup across western TX. Something to watch anyways as we transition to the summer doldrums Forecast Discussion SPC AC 020557 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A relatively benign upper pattern will be situated across the CONUS today, characterized by weak upper ridging east of the MS River, with diffuse upper troughing occurring across the western and central CONUS. A broad fetch of adequate low-level moisture between the Rockies and the MS River will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorm development, especially along the High Plains, where surface lee troughing will enhance lift for robust convection. A 500 mb jet streak, associated with a mid-level impulse embedded in the larger-scale upper trough, will overspread the southern High Plains by afternoon, promoting a risk for severe thunderstorms. All severe hazards will be possible, especially across western TX. ...Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned 500 mb jet max overspreads the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating, a dryline will sharpen from the CO/KS border to the Trans Pecos region in southwest TX. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F surface dewpoints, overspread by 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE, with the higher CAPE values likely across western TX. Meanwhile, veering winds with height in the 850-700 mb layer, overspread by the 500 mb jet streak, will contribute to weakly curved but elongated hodographs and corresponding 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Supercells are expected to be the initial storm mode, with 2+ inch diameter hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible. However, the supercells are expected to rapidly congeal into one or more MCSs just a few hours after convective initiation, from eastern CO into western TX. The steeper lapse rates and associated higher amounts of buoyancy across western TX, coinciding with the axis of the 500 mb jet, may promote the development of a longer-lived, mature MCS with embedded bowing features. Several severe gusts are possible, a few of which may reach 65 kts. ..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/02/2023

12/5/2

Figured might as well throw up a thread for this because tbh there's not much else happening severe-wise. Mainly hail/wind threat for the southern plains

Nice little severe warned cell going through Dallas county rn

Extended out to May 9th for a bunch of hail and wind driven Slight and above risks. ENH for today up in the northern plains

Updated to include the slight and higher risks through the 8th. Got a wind and hail driven ENH including DFW for today (sig hatched as well)

Looks like Waco area is getting hit hard with hail again with little of note in DFW

Looks like another late week hail risk for TX and OK

Edited topic to reflect today's broad slight risk area and the D2 enahnced risk focused on NTX

https://www.kwtx.com/2023/04/26/late-day-evening-severe-thunderstorms-expected/ nasty wall cloud

Nasty hook heading into Waco

Tor warned now

FWD still seems bullish this afternoon/evening 000 FXUS64 KFWD 261720 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 ...New Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Severe Weather Today/ An episode of significant severe weather will materialize this afternoon. North and Central Texas residents should be prepared for large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be a heightened flash flooding threat late this afternoon across eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas. A cluster of elevated sub-severe storms continues moving eastward across North Texas, leading to a continued threat for hail and gusty winds along and north of the warm front. The warm front generally resides along the I-20 corridor, evident by the southerly component of the winds south of the front and easterly/northeasterly winds north of the front. Although the front is generally along the I-20 corridor, much of the region continues to experience a fairly good amount of SBCIN in the wake of earlier showers and storms as well as the dense cloud cover in place. As we approach the afternoon, the initial area to watch for rapid thunderstorm development will be along/south of I20 and west of US-281. Visible imagery is depicting partial clearing is ongoing with temperatures approaching 80s degrees. With afternoon heating and MLCAPE expected to exceed 2500 J/Kg, any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing large hail that may approach or exceed baseball size. Given that the storms south of the warm front are likely to be surface based, not only will there be a significant hail threat, but the tornado threat will also increase as the storms move eastward. Surface southeasterly winds veering with height will result in classic right-turning hodographs, with a strong tornado or two not out of the question this afternoon/early evening. Additional convective development is expected along the true front as it moves southward late this afternoon. Initial thunderstorm development will likely be supercellular with a large to very large hail threat continuing. Tornadoes and damaging winds will continue to pose a threat south of the I-20 corridor, generally across southern portions of North Texas and into Central Texas. As the supercells move eastward, the expectation is for upscale growth into a complex of thunderstorms. There will be a transition to mainly a damaging wind threat along with wind-driven large hail. Sufficient 0-3km shear will be in place to mention the potential for quick tornadoes along any north/south oriented segment of the line of storms. As if that wasn`t enough, torrential rainfall may lead to flash flooding, especially across eastern portions of Central Texas and East Texas. Antecedent conditions will lead to rapid runoff of any precipitation, and with latest HREF PMM depicting isolated areas of 5" of rain, it`s important to remain vigilant of flooded areas this evening and tonight. If you come up on any flooded roads, TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN! The bulk of the convection should be exiting our region by around midnight. In doing so, the threat for severe weather will shift away from the entire region. A few elevated storms cannot be ruled out as far North as North Texas around/after midnight. Although some small hail cannot be ruled out, the overall severe weather threat will remain low. Dry and cooler air will filter in tomorrow, keeping temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s throughout the region. Winds will be out of the northwest generally between 20-25. Thursday night will be fairly cool across the region with upper 40s to lower 50s expected. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 317 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/ Update: We`re still looking at an active pattern through at least the first half of the weekend. After a short break from the rain Thursday night, showers and scattered storms will return late Friday afternoon or evening as a cold front moves south into our region. The only significant update made to the current forecast is to highlight the potential for strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening mainly across areas west of I-35 and south of I-20. Latest medium-range guidance shows sufficient moisture return (60s deg F dewpoints) coupled with decent instability and steep lapse rates for at least an isolated severe threat as storms move across Central Texas into Friday night. Specific details will continue to be refined as new data becomes available! The rest of the forecast remains in good shape. Sanchez Previous Discussion: /Thursday through Tuesday/ Any lingering precipitation behind the complex of storms Wednesday night should be quickly exiting the area by Thursday morning as skies will briefly clear out. Thursday should be a nice day overall with highs in the lower 70s, but low level moisture never really gets scoured out behind this system and will begin to spread northward Thursday night. A compact upstream shortwave will spread into West Texas on Friday with surface pressure falls occurring across much of the state along with a cold front racing southward through the Plains. There remains some uncertainty with respect to the location of the surface low and front/dryline by Friday afternoon, but there is some potential for a quick warm sector intrusion into North Texas, coinciding with increasing large scale forcing for ascent. This should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe if we do indeed get a warm sector this far north. We`ll continue to monitor this potential, but for now it looks like at least another quick shot of rainfall for the region. This system will quickly move east on Saturday with below normal temperatures expected and perhaps some lingering light post frontal rain. A quick warmup is expected on Sunday with highs back near 80 areawide and this trend will continue into early next week with a generally dry forecast. The pattern will remain active through the middle part of next week with additional storm chances mid to late week. Dunn && .AVIATION... /Issued 549 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023/ /12z TAFs/ SHRA/VCTS will continue to impact D10 airports for the next 2-3 hours before a lull in convective activity occurs through the rest of the morning. IFR cigs will prevail through midday with uncertain improvement to MVFR through the afternoon time period. Additional scattered convection will become possible in North Texas as early as 18-19z, but will increase in coverage markedly later in the afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches. The most likely timing for convective impacts at Metroplex airports is roughly 22-02z, and a few hours later at Waco. All convection during this time period has the potential to be severe with threats for hail, damaging gusts, and tornadoes. A southeast wind will prevail outside of convective influences, but the cold front will turn winds to the northwest at 10-20 kts following convective activity overnight, and a breezy northwest wind with overcast MVFR will prevail into Thursday. -Stalley

Latest D1 is concerning for DFW SPC AC 261248 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, along with very large/destructive hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts, are expected over parts of north Texas this afternoon and evening. Very large hail and damaging winds also are expected over parts of central Florida. ...Synopsis... The primary mid/upper-level feature influencing this forecast is a compact cyclone -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the southern Rockies and centered near SKX. A trough extends from the low southwestward across southeastern AZ, and northeastward to near IML. The 500-mb low should move southeastward across northeastern NM today, then by 00Z, pivot eastward to the TX Panhandle, with through southwestward past ELP. By 12Z, the perturbation should devolve to an open-wave trough with primary vorticity lobe over OK, and trough across west-central/far west TX. A broad area of difluent, somewhat cyclonic flow will spread across the southern Plains to its southeast. Several embedded, convectively induced/ reinforced vorticity maxima will eject eastward across the Arklatex and Mid-South regions ahead of this feature. A continuing fetch of strong upper-level westerlies -- with weak/embedded perturbations -- will overlie the northern Gulf and FL. One such weak shortwave trough is apparent over the north- central/northeastern Gulf, associated with a few thunderstorms southeast of LA. This feature should reach peninsular FL by this evening. At the surface, a quasistationary front was drawn at 11Z across north-central FL and the northern Gulf, becoming a warm front over southeast through central TX, to a low between SWW-LBB. A cold front extended from there southwestward over the lower Pecos Valley. The cold front will shift eastward over central/north TX through the period, while the warm front shifts northward today to near the DFW Metroplex, before being overtaken by convection. The FL frontal segment should remain near its present position. ...North TX and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to occur along and south of the warm front this afternoon, with all severe modes possible. The main concern at first may be large to giant hail, with ideal conditions progged for generation of hailstones above 3 inches in diameter from any sustained supercell(s). As early supercells move east-southeastward to southeastward across the region into greater low-level moisture and weak CINH along/south of the effective warm front, two processes should occur in tandem: 1. Enlargement of low-level hodographs during late afternoon into early evening, 2. Growth in convective coverage, ultimately leading to a line of strong-severe thunderstorms moving southeastward across central and northeast TX. The resulting QLCS this evening will be mainly a damaging-wind threat with potential for significant/65+ kt gusts, but with a couple tornadoes and isolated large hail still possible. While supercells still are present -- and especially along the warm front where low-level shear/vorticity will be maximized -- so will be the potential for tornadoes (some possibly capable of significant/EF2+ damage). Uncertainties remain on mesoscale specifics of boundary position and mode-transition timing, but both giant hail and tornadoes are possible with the boundary potentially lying across some part of the Metroplex. North of the boundary, isolated large hail still may occur from the most vigorous elevated convection across mainly the Red River region into parts of OK/AR. This includes an ongoing, elevated cluster of thunderstorms over northwest TX and southwestern OK, which should move astride the Red River across southern OK and parts of north TX through the day. A corridor of 2500-3500 J/kg peak/preconvective MLCAPE should develop east of the cold front and southwest of the warm front through central TX, narrowing northward. Strong veering of flow with height -- especially near the warm front -- will contribute to 45-60 kt effective-shear magnitudes. The largest hodograph sizes and SRH for surface-based, effective-inflow parcels should be along the warm front, but still will favor supercells in the warm sector. Once the modal transition occurs, wind and tornado potential will be maximized near embedded mesocirculations and bow/LEWP features. ...FL Peninsula... Scattered, mainly afternoon to early-evening thunderstorms are expected across central and south FL, offering large hail and isolated damaging to severe gusts. The greatest convective coverage potential and most-favorable environmental parameter space for significantly severe hail appears to be over portions of central/ east-central FL this afternoon, where supercells with significant hail (2+ inches diameter) may occur. Isolated damaging/severe downbursts also may occur, and a tornado is possible with help from storm-scale/boundary processes. Initial foci for convection will be sea-breeze boundaries near the East Coast, and farther inland from the Gulf. With strong surface heating and abundant low-level moisture expected to minimize MLCINH by midday, outflow and differential-heating boundaries also may support storm initiation throughout the afternoon. The coldest midlevel temperatures and steepest low/middle-level lapse rates are expected over central FL, associated with a remnant Mexican EML plume. With surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F, preconvective MLCAPE should reach 2500-3000 J/kg (locally higher). Low-level flow will be weak, keeping hodographs small for the most part. However, flow will veer strongly with height beneath favorable mid/upper winds of the subtropical jet, contributing to 40-50-kt effective-shear magnitudes. This, along with boundary interactions, will support supercell potential to maximize updraft strength and efficiency of hail production. Hail-growth models applied to forecast soundings indicate potential for hailstones 2-3 inches in diameter, perhaps from multiple storms. The overall convective coverage/intensity should decrease markedly after about 03Z, when outflow coverage is maximized and nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization is underway. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 04/26/2023

D1 Slight risk shifted west a good bit, while day 2 has been upgraded to Enhanced centered on the DFW metro