catoctin wx

@Mrs.J Sign us up for some of this!

9 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Spot on as usual. You can also see the Monocacy Valley snow hole illustrated. It seems to rear it's ugly head when there isn't sustained cold air draining into Frederick City. I know that's been the perennial bane of @catoctin wx and @Mrs.J

Bane is exactly the right word for setups where cold air is marginal.  I can often see the snow a few miles from my house on top of Braddock Mtn but it's rain in the valley. Pretty cool to see it showing up in the models now.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Dude, been there (as a coach). Best part is when people still ignore your prediction because “my app says…” and so you still have to drive 30+ minutes to personally attend the rainout.

For sure!  Even worse is when the app is correct 

25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Catoctin: “for godsake, I am NOT Saruman I have no control over any of this”

Unfortunately being the league president AND the meteorologist means all eyes on me.  Would be nice to just pass along the forecast and let someone else make the decision 

Meteorologist rant / complaint moment.  I'm the president of a local baseball little league with 107 players and we have our big opening day ceremony at 9:00 on Saturday.  It looks guaranteed that we will have to delay by at least a couple of hours which is a bummer but not the end of the world.  The GFS shows the rain ending in Frederick between 10 and 11 which would be fine, we will deal.  The NAM-HIRES shows the line coming through around 10 but with a blob of rain after it ending closer to 1, which would suck.  The Euro doesn't have the hourly timestep yet.

When you are the president of a baseball league planning an event and the success of the day hinges on the difference of a couple of hours, it's really not a great time for people to know you are a meteorologist.  The feeling of helplessness is real.

/complaint

16 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

I am suspecting yes. I am in SW Frederick Co and even if we get a lighter effect down here the N and NW parts of the county will be why. 

Just now, catoctin wx said:

I suspect Frederick County will close tomorrow due to the expected icing along the Catoctins.  Myersville, Emmitsburg, Sabilasville are usually the areas of concern that drive the whole county decision.

I hope I'm wrong though

Great minds think alike @MrsJ 

53 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Are we thinking 2 hour delays for school systems tomorrow?


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I suspect Frederick County will close tomorrow due to the expected icing along the Catoctins.  Myersville, Emmitsburg, Sabilasville are usually the areas of concern that drive the whole county decision.

I hope I'm wrong though

I hate days like this. I have a baseball practice to run from 5:30 - 7:00 in Frederick.  The HRRR shows the line coming through at like 6:30, but the 3km NAM doesn't have it until later 

Can we just all hold off for a second and wait to see what the damn groundhog says first?

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Gotta be worried about wind

I literally cannot tell anymore what is sarcasm and what isn't 

Just now, mappy said:

They may be worried about refreezing since temps are dropping

That may be. Makes as much sense as anything at this point

So there are community colleges and other places closing early today around 3pm. Am I missing something here? Is more expected?

I know that I don't pay as close attention as many in this subforum but I feel like I would be aware of imminent danger later today.

Lies detected


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Frederick County schools closed due to "worsening conditions."  Apparently rain and then not rain is considered a worsening condition now

37.6 / 37.2 and light rain in Frederick.  Wind (meager as it is) just picked up and switched to coming from the north.  Gonna be too little too late though around here

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's that northern crew spirit. I knew you had it in you.

I've heard it's ok to be irrational about snow and am acting accordingly

I was gracious and happy for the southern folks with the January 3rd storm.  Now I'm just bitter that they are stealing our northern birthright to snow superiority

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You gotta get a house in Sabillasville my friend.

I prefer civilization lol.  Middletown / Myersville is the place to be around here

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That’s clutch. I gained latitude from Bethesda but probably still in the delayed but not denied mix zone lol.

Depending on what part of Frederick you are in.  I sit at 300 ft and generally do very poorly on storms that are elevation dependent

Just now, mappy said:

Looks good friend!

Thanks Katie!  The little "Let is Snow" flag in the garden has been putting in serious work this year! 

Up to 4” and all snow here in Frederick. Switched to sleet and freezing rain (22.3 degrees) for a little while around 6 this morning. Not a bad little storm here


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Going with 4.3” total for the two days based on the amount added by Thursday mornings snow shower that moved though.

I just emptied my CoCoRaHS, which I take much more seriously than I do my backyard snow measurements, and had 0.42” liquid equivalent.

Almost an exact 10:1 ratio. It’s nice when things work out


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Looking lovely outside in Frederick. Just shoveled the driveway where there was considerable melting with nice fluff on top of slush. Solid 4” on all other surfaces though.


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9 minutes ago, jayyy said:

For sure! I was shocked to see snow lighten up as I got up to mount Saint Mary’s around 930. Better snow pack, but less new snow . It seemed like MSM was JUST too far north to get in on the heavier banding... that or the area was being robbed of some lift due to subsidence because of the very heavy snow falling right to the south. Once I left the mount and went down 15 toward 70, the roads / snow got noticeably worse in Thurmont and again when I got to 70 near Frederick. The left lane of 70 was completely covered with snow near Monrovia and Frederick and I saw multiple car crashes happen. Quite the drive.  

Damn, sounds like quite the drive you had. Glad you made it back safely!

15 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Precip still appears to be moving almost due west to east. I assume the boundary is forecasted to drop south at some point and force precip south with it? Just don’t see how that other precip misses us otherwise. Precip up near Charlestown and toward the MD/WV border appears to coming right at us?

15 years later and I can still hear my Meteorology professors and lead forecasters screaming "NEVER ADVECT RADAR" from across the weather station