ROOSTA

"TURN ON ANYTHING YOU'LL GET IT." "THIS PLACE SURE GONE CRAZY."

Watches have been issued for Mainland US as of the 5pm. advisory. WHO CARES!

Evacuation Orders on the Outer Banks. Absolutely fascinating watching the evolution. Beating a dead horse for one last time. Yah, Yah, Yah I know... -------- I'm squarely at ground zero (only 10D to go) for the next

What a boring place this would be if every post was spot on accurate without questioning. Respectfully, why have Forum? ERIN wasn't a threat for landfall (given players on the field) but still worthy of the nuisances from formation to dissipation. A CAT5, strongest, fastest intensifying for the location and time of year.

Let's see... The last several Advisories. Not made up and documented. Adjusted forecast track "nudged" to the W. A WNW movement to continue with an "expected" turn to the N. ERIN was NEVER forecasted in the earlier advisories to be located at the present position. Just something to watch, BE AWARE, going forth. HFSA 2am. Thursday 72.3W 33.85N (closest approach) Only then a fish let off the hook.

I'm more worried about the next. Short term forecast for ERIN isn't even close to being accurate. If this was my profession, I'd be very careful declaring A FISH. The thrill (skill) is why and how? This we all know but the timing is off. My memory is terrible, years and named storms. I recall a tropical entity that miss (3) troughs, looped a couple of times just off NC.

I should be banned for this statement. 18z NAM. Anyone wanna look? BULLETIN Hurricane Erin Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 ERIN CONTINUING TO PASS NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 64.0W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES Shouldn't ERIN be written off by NOW?

Hurricane Models continue with a W track. Now as far as 73.1 W 29.3 N The consistent Westward track continues (no panic yet) Tell you if I lived in New England its very concerning.

12z GFS Initialization only off by 66mb. ONLY 66! ----- Location is N and E only off a few (hundred) miles. Include the darts with the sharpie.

An ever so slight track to the N. That Inner Core is going to expand twice, three times its present size. Wondering what the strongest Cane at present location of LAT has ever been (917mb) has to be close? WILMA

Insane... imagine if the curve N never takes place and a WNW track continues. Get your sharpie out. It would change model reliance forever. Kinetic Energy FTW.

GR2Analyst (PR site) shows the EYE moving due W. Awesome, that's crazy how rapidly it intensified. Pressure will bottom out, how low? Slowdown and then turn to the North. CAT5 is definitely possible.

The "DO NOT LOOK" possible Fernand. Still there after a couple of model runs. That is all. The eye has appeared on ERIN.

DO NOT LOOK. GFS OP has formable Fernand. Well within believable range. Maybe get lucky in the tracking of having a storm on the grid till the end of October. Likely not given the phase of the MJO.

Flags of caution. Posts of certainty i.e.: ERIN is a landfall miss. There are no certainties, probabilities most assuredly certainly. With each update the models for the most part have been remarkably consistent. By no means am I stating a forecasted landfall. Consider the track has been South and West with a delay in intensification. The newer Hurricane Models show this. ECMWF, GFS ensembles wagons WEST. I enjoy tracking these suckers. A great diversion from life reality. Anybody ever fight with an Insurance Companies reluctance to pay on a claim? How does one get them to pay for work already performed? I ask because last Wed. A 100ft, 6ft wide trunked live oak fell and punctured 4 holes. Guilty until proven innocent. Invoice from Tree crew hired gave me a total of $8500.00 (reasonable considering the damage) The point contact stated "way over priced." The house was sold, well under contract and only 4hrs away from inspection. MOTHERTUCKERS!