Super more flooding.
Still have some discrepancy on how quickly the cold front moves
through. Given the deep trough slowly lifting through am thinking
the front will be slowly moving through like depicted by the
UKMET/ECMWF/CMC/ICON guidance. The GFS/NAM are the fastest with
moving the front through. Will be important in how quickly the front
passes through because could have a prolonged heavy rain risk
Wednesday night and especially on Thursday. Wednesday night PWATs
increase to roughly 1.5-1.75" ahead of the incoming front. On
Thursday south-southwesterly flow will advect in 1.75-2" PWATs. This
is AOA the 90th percentile per SPC Sounding climatology for CHH for
this time of year. Given antecedent conditions we can`t handle too
much rainfall, so think there could be a flood risk Wednesday night
and on Thursday. The current WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
may not be far enough west especially if things continue trending
toward the slower solutions.