osfan24

All of the above. I'm a split between exhausted and acceptance. There comes a point where you know the game is over and you stop fouling and just let the other team run out the clock. I'll check out 12z runs, but it's becoming more clear that not only does it get warm and any front-end snow washes away, but there isn't going to be some amazing deform show on the back end, either. Early in the winter for sure, but so frustrating to see a potential big storm just pulled out from under us, especially when you would have thought there would be some adjustments back to the east.

Looked like it was about to be a beatdown and then that weird low popped up on the Eastern Shore and messed it all up.

3K seemed so close to something good for my location. Rain/sleet gets to me for several hours but almost held off. Adjustments needed don't seem that great.

Low placement and direction is still odd. Off Charleston, almost due north to just south of NC/VA border, then jumps ENE to just south of Eastern Shore, and resumes heading NNE just barely off the Delmarva.

Ouch. Low seems to form somewhere just off the coast between Charleston and Myrtle and it almost comes due north from there. Just a little more easterly component to that movement from that far south would make a major difference by the time it gets up closer to us.

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

I thought it was odd as well. There's also the double barrel structure going on as well, though it seems the low closest to the coast is the dominant player.

Seemed like a step back with thermals from 12z, but it's just 10 miles here or 10 miles there making the difference it seems.

Yeah, it's agonizingly close.

Ha, I noticed that, too. I'm in part of that area. I'm just going to assume whiteout.

It's probably possible it could crack top 10 December snowfalls all time at BWI and maybe top five at Dulles if things really broke right. Given the axis of snowfall though, this is going to be a storm where BWI probably reports a total that is not very reflective of what most of the Baltimore region receives, and that's before you get into the fact that they seem to always measure low even when compared to spotter reports down the street. I used to be pretty close to BWI and the discrepancies were ridiculous, especially for the biggest storms.

COULD this happen? Sure. But this is really misleading to the public to showcase a model showing this.

If I was going to go down with a ship, it would not be the RPM

It's a crazy close call for us if, ya know, that was the actual real solution.

GFS is caving. It's warm.

I appreciate anyone with knowledge and their opinions, especially a met. I think it's awesome they are on this board. I think the thing bothering most is that his educated opinions are presented as facts that are a 100% lock. If he just presented his opinions and showed why he thinks this or that will happen, it would come off differently. It's definitely the tone and way it is presented.

Also didn't help the low was almost to the coast in NC and then jumped back slightly NW into Virginia. Models are having problems with low placement and it's messing up the snow/mix/rain lines.

No idea. He was incredibly detailed. What he did had to be crazy time-consuming, so maybe he just stopped because of the time involved when he obviously wasn't making money off of it. Or maybe he got tired of the critics.

Not really. Actually been around here for awhile. Never heard his name mentioned. On another note, I had no idea cranky was done tweeting.

Who is Forky? Did you talk to Woody, too?

Do you mean east? It looks to me like, after it jumped a bit east at 12z, it's now jumped considerably east again at 18z. It's now off of OC and not just off either. Much better. Surprised the thermals look as bad as they do.

They will. They always start conservatively for big storms and then slowly up amounts as it gets closer in time.

Nice! I'm iguessing I'm right on the border of the 6-8 and 8-12 areas and 12-18 isn't out of reach.

Duration of that was much longer though. But yeah, rates do help! You are gonna get clobbered! Enjoy!

Changed over to almost all snow now. Very lightly coming down. Huge flakes.