osfan24
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Everything posted by osfan24
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They will. They always start conservatively for big storms and then slowly up amounts as it gets closer in time.
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Nice! I'm iguessing I'm right on the border of the 6-8 and 8-12 areas and 12-18 isn't out of reach.
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Duration of that was much longer though. But yeah, rates do help! You are gonna get clobbered! Enjoy!
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Changed over to almost all snow now. Very lightly coming down. Huge flakes.
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Looks like Euro swings and misses on the deform for us but we still see some big totals west of 95 but south of mappy/psu? I'd love the Euro totals but given this depiction, not seeing how I get thumped like that without any deform.
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If nothing else, the bleeding has stopped momentarily and there is some hope again, if this map is legit and not loaded with sleet disguised as snow. Maybe this is the start of a reverse trend? At least there is some hope now going into 18z.
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Nah, I'm rooting for other posters here to get some great snow. That said, it makes me irrationally angry seeing Philly and NYC getting slammed and we don't. That's pretty rare, especially in a situation like this where it's not like we are missing the precip, which sometimes happens when the low is too far east and NYC and Boston get slammed, but a coastal where it's too warm here but cold enough there.
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This combined with the snow map and placement of low is both hilarious and infuriating. It's literally a perfect position of the low dumping over 2 inches of liquid over Central MD and it's almost all rain. How?
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Chipping away a lot in the Baltimore area as well, especially the most recent run. Ouch. I think we can all see where this is going.
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It "looks" like it is trying to snow here. I don't see flakes, but rain drops have that weird look where they are really big.
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Same. Still time for some minor adjustments that would make a big difference for us in terms of what we get, but the writing may be on the wall. The fat lady is possibly warming up her voice. This would be a fitting finish for 2020 to have the rug pulled out.
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Would have to see temp panels but really surprise it starts as rain for a bunch of us. The low is tucked in more than last run, but it's still off the coast. That's a fine position for us.
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Unfortunately, it really doesn't matter if the low placement is coming up through NC and VA and rolling toward the mouth of the bay. That's too close. It needs to be around or off Hatteras and then off OCMD. It seems models are trending toward bringing it over land and due north toward us. That's going to drive in tons of warm air and it will be game, set, match.
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If Winchester mixes, I'm building an ark.
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Might be out by Bermuda by tomorrow's 12z.
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Ha, the temps looked much better on the NAM, and then the simulated radar was a dumpster fire. Didn't really seem to line up.
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Not based on that above snowfall map. Woof.
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I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.
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Surprised we haven't seen the Euro move to a less amped solution yet. Maybe this thing will be more amped and it will have lead the way on this one.
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I know it's December, but how is there is a fresh cold air mass with a fairly strong high and those low locations and a concern of mix or rain still and surface temps above freezing? Those low locations are perfect.
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I get that, but with such huge totals being shown on many models not that far away and within striking distance, this scenario would be a bit disappointing. I guess it's all about expectations. Had this not been showing such big potential for days on end with big totals hanging around, 6-10 or whatever would sound amazing for December. But that run almost cut my recent GFS run totals in half.
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Not sure why people liked that run. Maybe low position was better, but it wasn't noticeably colder and it drastically cut qpf everywhere. No bueno. Maybe just a blip.
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Just noise probably, but Euro seemed like the slightest step back from 12z. Still trying to figure out where the deform band goes and the 32 line still bounces west of 95 for a time.
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2-6 is the shad of blue that runs just west of DC and through Baltimore. I think the next shade is 1-2 and the lightest shade is a dusting.
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Not sure about VA, but in MD, it's basically I-95.
