jbenedet

That's the GFS developing the invest 91L in the SW GOM next week. It's certainly possible. Although I hope it doesn't resolve anything close to LA. They certainly don't need any kind of TC right now, even the weak TS variety. Important implications beyond that towards the northeast. Even if nothing organized develops. The trough and associated shortwave that picks it up means business. Timing and orientation favors a general track towards same areas affected by Ida. Something as simple as a tropical connection could yield a lot of rain.

The least interesting disturbance is actually the one we all should be watching. The lemon over Central America—GFS and Euro develop this into a TD in a few days, and then tracks it into the northern Gulf in 96 hr. EPS, GEFS, likewise. NHC should be upping the medium term probs on this one. A deep long wave trough approaching central CONUS is likely to pick this up and send whatever does develop north. This would be a US direct impact.

How shallow is shallow water if the center of circulation is bringing a 7ft addition with it? Food for thought, and reanalysis... File under “example of extreme canes creating their own environment”

NOLA aside, there really isn’t a way to implement infrastructure for a track and storm like this in an area broadly at or below sea level. The combination of coastal flooding, river, lake and stream flooding over such a large region for 10+ hours and myriad points of potential failure is just too much to plan for. If there isn’t widespread flooding in Southeast LA all the way up to Lake Maurepas area I’ll be shocked. The rainfall amounts are going to be incredible from IDA as well. Widespread 15”+. Just my 2 cents.

Kinda surprised no one has mentioned this. There’s a 1018 mb high over Georgia. Quite robust for this time of the year. The synoptic scale players favor a significant gradient wind. The west side is not seeing the synoptic ageostrophic flow associated with the synoptic scale gradient as Ida’s center is between their location and the surface high. The flip side is this is making for significantly more wind on the eastern side AND with a substantial fetch over water, all along the east coast of LA. Coastal flooding well away from the center? You betcha. Look at how much more tightly packed the isobars are on the eastern side vs western side, well away from the center.

Or reappear on a high horse with no claim to fame but a free website?

Looking more and more “crappy” but surface pressure falling... all day...

It’s probably better to look at this more like a sub tropical cyclone at this stage.

Obviously. Man. And still looked like shit on IR. We’re not in the tropics bro.

Every TC that comes up this way looks like shit on IR. Even Sandy looked like shit. No rain on the entire eastern half.

I’m not opining based on impact to SE New Hampshire. I’m fascinated and tracking out of interest for south coast, Long Island and SNE (for flooding risks). wind absolutely not the big story outside of coastal LI and CT. Otherwise it’s storm surge layered on very high seas—coastal flooding. Heavy rainfall.

Euro initialized at 12z at 1001 mb. Henri was 993 mb per recon at that same time frame. Euro still takes it to landfall —high 980’s ish...

Significant expansion of the wind field right upon closest approach, as phase completed. AWT. New England being New England. Model huggers flummoxed.

The symmetrical look of yesterday was a facade of organizing—competing CoC’s under a “CDO” Today everything is coalescing around one CoC. This will look much more impressive on satellite in 3 -6 hrs.

“Looking under the hood”

I’m seeing some early signs that Henri is finally organizing around ONE center of circulation. He’s got a lot of work to do, but this very disheveled appearance looks like a “shedding” of the competing MLC, LLC state and evolution into a structure that is vertically stacked. Time is the limiting factor now.

To be fair, this recurve scenario close to landfall means uncertainty is quite high, at very short lead times. This is just a general rule of thumb. Accuracy goes up once new forward velocity attained. What it implies here is a capture (phase). When does that happen and to what degree? It’s a very complex interaction, unfortunately.

I like the NHC’s track. Risk vs guidance is still skewed west—the recent trends East have been due to much less (minimal) phasing with the UL trough, and not less ridging to the east. The former is a much more uncertain —error prone—aspect of the forecast.

I haven’t. But I’m intrigued. Are there local ferries out of Mystic?

I’m really just sayin’ same guy has made same comment about rocks on his beach 4 times in past 48 hrs.

No one cares about your goddamn rocks, guy.

This is going to be an extremely difficult forecast at very short lead times. Model guidance showing that second recurve west beginning right as Henri is closest to land...

GFS Going to hook west into central LI me thinks

As a benefit will see how much was (not) learned post Sandy. A microcosm of our macroeconomic system

Winds are never the focal point for these in general, especially up here. Storm surge, coastal flooding and heavy rainfall.