Rankin5150

13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Only noticeable thing this run on the NAM through 60 is the high is slightly weaker. We've done okay with 1038 many times in the past though. 

Good point Jeremy. If I am not mistaken, we have had plenty of decent storms with a 1038. 

3 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yea sounding looks much better at kclt this run. all snow thru 96.

Thats AWESOME to see! If I am not mistaken, this is the first ALL snow sounding for CLT for this system?

50 minutes ago, Wow said:

Quite a few wild snow maps out of the 18z GEFS

WOW!!!!You put the "WOW IN WOW"! LOL T

6 minutes ago, Weatherman23 said:

Hey everyone, glad to be a part of the forum, anyone think SE VA could see a little snow with this system?

WELCOME to the Family! There is a ton of great persons in here. You will enjoy it!

5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps  cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. 

Just something interesting to me.

 

 

Poimen, 

Thanks for all your contributions. I really have picked up bits and pieces from you, as well as many others over the years. Good observation!

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.

Sounds like an optimal track for us here in the Carolinas! 

Just now, griteater said:

Yeah, living on the edge is no good, and there's normally a late north climb.  Ideal scenario is for the NE confluence to increase over time, have the wave trek west to east instead of sliding northeast at the end....and throw in some late phasing

Thanks man! UGH. The usual. When am I gonna learn and just get the heck out of here. The Burgertime Snow Triangle of death is still alive and well. HAHAHA. 

14 minutes ago, griteater said:

It's kind of weird, the system is so slow moving that it is thumping heavy front end gulf precip into the cold-ish air....heavy rising motion on the NW side of the Miller A...and by the time the 850 low approaches and it warms, it has snowed a lot

Grit, 

It looks like CLT is in the shaft zone again, but hoping we can at least get some sizeable accumulations before being warm nosed???

Just now, SimeonNC said:

 

Verbatim, CLT gets shut down for the rest of December.

I am VERY worried about the zr. That on top of 14"+ of WET snow. It will be damage unlike we have seen since Hugo. 

10 minutes ago, Poimen said:

See if this link will work for you: 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018120400&fh=168&r=conus&dpdt=

THANK YOU SIR! WOOOW! I cannot get over how all of these models are showing Buffalo, NY Lake Effect totals! Someone has to be playing a sick, twisted APRIL FOOLS joke on us EARLY. LMAO

Just now, griteater said:

wow, this would yield some big time totals....very, very rare to see this kind of look at h5 down here

Would CLT area cash in with some significant snows with this? TIA!

I feel NWS-GSP worded this spot on: 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM Monday: No major changes to the overall forecast from
the 12z guidance. If anything, they continue to trend a little
slower/delayed on the onset of precip, and also a little heavier in
QPF. The 12z ECMWF has come in more northerly/inland with the sfc
low track, and results in warmer thicknesses across the FA thru the
event. This allows a stronger warm nose, and perhaps, more of a
mixed bag of p-types, versus more ra/sn that previous runs
suggested. I opted to blend a little 12z ECMWF into the partial
thickness p-type nomogram tool for this forecast. Still get a lot of
snow in the mountains and the I-40 corridor with this solution, but
if the new ECMWF trend holds, these values will likely be a lot
lower, due to the sleet/frza mixing in. With all that said, it still
looks like a significant winter storm on tap for most of the
mountains and adjacent foothills in NC, while the Piedmont south of
I-40 is highly uncertain. Temps will start out below normal Friday,
as a reinforcing cold front pushes thru. Then classic cold air
damming sets up Friday night thru Sunday, as a strong sfc high
builds in across the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest
precip looks to be mainly Saturday night into early Sunday, but that
time may change slightly as we get closer to the event. Temps will
be tricky with the CAD. I stuck close to WPC, but these may be too
warm within the heart of the CAD wedge.

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Euro Ensemble members are also back to being absurdly bullish for the upstate.  Over half of them paint >3 inches here, with a mean close to 6 inches.

Incredible that both the GFS and Euro ensemble means are roughly 6 inches here this far out. 

Thank you for the info. Would you mind posting them, when you have time. Thanks in advance...

Just now, SnowNiner said:

Man if we can't get a warning criteria snow in the NC piedmont/Upstate out of that sweet look in December, I will never expect snow again in December.  Geez.  I don't know how I could draw it any better, other than a stronger high. We suck if we can't snow with that. 

Unfortunately...for our areas...if it can go wrong, then it WILL go wrong. It ALWAYS seems to be just right and there is no way we can miss out and then BOOM...something happens and we are screwed. LOL. I am with you brother...the setup is TOO AWESOME to NOT get something decent out of this. Fingers crossed we can get the cold source we need to SEAL THE DEAL! SIGH...

25 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z FV3 loop

Looks like it has deformation axis in the CLT area or points due north. Interesting...

Just now, calculus1 said:

Here you go:

https://www.weather.gov/rah/events

THANK YOU SO VERY MUCH! I really appreciate it! 

Best, 

Jason 

Good morning everyone. I hope all is well and everyone is having fun tracking our first real threat of the early winter season. Does anyone know of a good website to look up past snowfalls for North Carolina? I want to go back through a lot of the past storms we have had, as well as look at past winters to see how things shook out for the Charlotte, NC and surrounding area(s). Thank you in advance for any input/links, etc. 

Best regards, 

Jason 

Here is an update from NWS-GSP:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 410 AM Monday: Threat for significant winter weather next
weekend continues, especially for the NC mtns and adjacent piedmont
and points north. However, confidence is very low on the exact
details. The 00Z EC was preferred for the extended given its better
consistency and it falls between the faster and warmer operational
GFS and the slower and colder GFS ensemble members. Thursday into
Friday will be the quiet before the storm. Zonal flow aloft will
prevail during this time with surface high pressure weakening and
shifting southeast of the FA Friday. A northern stream disturbance
passing to the Thursday night north may bring some clouds to the
mountains with an outside shot at a few snow showers. Otherwise
expect increasing clouds by late in the day Friday ahead of a
surface low pressure system developing along the northwestern Gulf
of Mexico. Temperatures will warm some into Friday but will likely
remain below normal.

The surface low is currently expected to track near the northern
Gulf Coast Friday into Saturday before crossing FL and arriving
somewhere near the Southeast coast Sunday. the timing and location
of the low would support continued increasing clouds with
precipitation starting sometime Saturday, possibly late in the day.
Most guidance shows a 1030mb+ sfc high pressure system building into
the Mid Atlantic states Friday night into Saturday just ahead of the
storm system. This supports much colder air filtering into the region
by Saturday with highs expected to only be around 40, setting the
stage for the potentially significant winter storm. Saturday night
into Sunday currently look like the period for the most significant
precipitation with a strong southerly low level jet pumping moisture
into the region above the cold dome of high pressure wedging down
east of the mtns. Much uncertainty exists with the eventual
precipitation type across the region. At this time it appears that
the biggest ice/snow issues would be on the front end of the storm
system. Although, if the fairly strong sfc high pressure system gets
locked into the Mid-Atlantic states on some models suggest, then
significant snow and ice will be possible, especially across NC.
Although at least light snow and especially ice accumulations are
possible even across southern portions of the FA as well. The
forecast will likely change multiple times this week, but now is the
time to begin putting a winter weather plan together for this
potential significant winter storm.

For those that have beads of sweat forming on your foreheads, because of the 0Z runs, please remember to take a look at all the pieces on the table AND take into account the naunces of the models at this RANGE. For example, if you look at Vapor, you can see the Split flow developing. Also, the GFS ALWAYS loses this storm at some point. Besides...it is only ONE run. Lets stay away from the cliff and see how future runs progress from here...

2 hours ago, Wow said:

2/2004 as I recall it was modeled always as a good precip maker with temp issues but in the last 72 hrs it trended colder and colder with each run. 

The February 2004 Storm is my ALL TIME PERSONAL BEST Snowstorm. We got 17" from that monster. I remember tracking it and it ALWAYS showed heavy totals on the forecast maps, however, it ended up being colder and we got hit with a ULL at the end. Lake Wylie, SC (a few miles down the road from me) got 24"+! 

17 minutes ago, JoshM said:

whew... 2002 on steroids, would we have enough cold air taking latent heat release into account?

CRAZY!! I was thinking the SAME THING!!! UGH!!! 

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's tonight's 00z Euro run

WOW! Thanks Grit! Based on Climatology, this kind of scenario would make sense for this being early December in our neck of the woods. A significant thump of snow and then a  changeover to a FROZEN MESS! GULP...if this were to come to fruition, we would be looking at some SIGNIFICANT power outages. Can this be shared? Thanks again for always providing awesome information!

Just now, griteater said:

Euro out to 156.  The wave is night and day diff from GFS.  It's more of a broad slider compared to amped GFS.  Sfc low in S LA and 1039 high over Michigan to NY...with wintry precip in N TN in NE GA into NC

Sounds like more of an overrunning look? Thanks for all the input Grit! 

I am wondering why Griteater does not have his ProMet Tag? He sure has earned it! Love your input to the forum brother! Keep up the great work and I am always learning something from you! Hope you and your Family had a great Thanksgiving!

Thank you for posting this! I love nostalgic pieces like this. Jim Axel passed away from Lung Cancer in November of 2009, at the age of 75. Time sure does fly! SMH...