Rankin5150

Just now, SnowDawg said:

GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas.

Do you happen to have a map on the totals? I know they are fantasy, but I want to see these #'s and compare to Wow's post earlier, where he took a compilation of all of the runs. Heck...it is nice to dream a little dream anyways. LOL. Thank you in advance. 

32 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I’ll bet he was!

Looks good right there.

I cannot wait to see the snow maps of this run!!! 

6 minutes ago, isohume said:

The EC was used and weighted along with some GFS/CMC fields. The NAM profiles were not incorporated as it was deemed too warm at h85 and was an outlier, but will be watched for further trends. In my personal experience the NAM normally does quite well with the warm nose in this area.

I was wondering what this meant from reading the AFD. Thank you for clarifying. BTW, I think you all do one helluva good job! Thanks for always holding it down! 

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Very reactionary from GSP. I don't know why they even issue those this far out.

It almost seems like the current shift leader said "I am yanking the towel out from under the other shift". Kinda weird how they went from one extreme to another. There is still enough time for changes with the model runs. Hmmm...

4 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Does anyone care about the SREF plumes at this range? GSO snow mean is 8.3" and qpf is 1.56"

I am curious what they are showing for Belmont, NC at this range (zip: 28012). Thank you

If my memory serves correctly, I believe the Canadian has a decent score with CAD events AND ULL's?? I can remember more than a couple of times the Canadian verifying on backend snows. 

Does anyone have any maps to post for the latest GFS? TIA

Here is a zone forecast from GSP for Gaston County. You can see where they show mixing with ZR during a time when the heaviest precip is moving through on Sunday. It will be flipping back and forth, so this would have a huge effect on totals. Also, there will be mixing on and off throughout. I am also hoping the models are not trending with the HP being weaker, like I have seen on the past 2 runs. Plenty of time, but I thought I would throw that out there. I guess beggars cannot be choosers though. This is EARLY December. This is awesome, based on our climo: 

Saturday Night

Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Breezy with lows around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday

Freezing rain. Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Brisk. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night

Snow. Sleet likely after midnight. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Monday

Sleet likely in the morning. Snow and rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow or rain in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent

Just now, ILMRoss said:

CAD actually warms the other side of the Apps. We’re all familiar with how cold, dense air “piles up” on our side, creating CAD. However, on the Tennessee side, there’s all of the sudden much less air making it over the mountain, which lowers air pressure (why you see an inverted trough here) and ultimately warms the area.

WOW! Thank you sir. That is very informative. I never knew the implications. It is crazy how everything in weather seems to have an equal but opposite reaction. Thanks again!

Just now, griteater said:

The big ones that come to mind are Feb2004, Jan1988, Mar1983, Feb1979, Feb1969

February 2004 was a Miller A? I did not know the others were as well. Awesome Info. I will have to read up on these. Thanks man! 

Just now, griteater said:

They just don't have the pre-storm cold air mass unfortunately, otherwise it's a perfect track for them

Is this because they are not situated in a CAD favored area? Interesting...

Thanks for all you do Grit! 

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Look where the red dot is 

 

 

It is tough for me to zoom in, but is Charlotte/Belmont under the dark blue blob (15-18") range? Loving the red dot over Macs crib! LOL! 

48 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I'm asking myself that John . I have a company Christmas party tonight and other than that a long weekend. So might as well do something fun? Plus once I saw the models I got sucked in. Hard not be excited even over here! 

Hope all is well with you! Thanks for the kind words. That's how you know it's a great community here. Even the ones who leave keep coming back...or is that a cult?

 

 

You are such a good dude! Miss you over here brother! I am looking forward to the legalization of MJ here in the ole bible belt of NC. If I am not mistaken, Amsterdam has legalized MJ? LUCKY DAWG! 

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

This to me isn't your standard Miller A it's taking that track but it's more a big overrunning event taking a Miller A track...but maybe I'm wrong with that. If this follows the models like GSP said it's historic. That's the thing about making history, there's nothing to really compare it to. 

Thanks man! Wow...you answered my question to Grit and I had decided to pose this question to you as well. Pretty cool. Anyways, what do you think about the question on if we have ever scored BIG on any Miller A's (excluding the Mountains). I used the 12"+ as criteria. I am only asking, so I can see if we can find any data to correlate to this system. Thanks again man. I sure wish you were here. 

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Yep. Also a lot of moving parts. The good news is the big models are still holding serve so people should be using that as a guide not an exact map. The players we want are there, now it's just going to be how they all align. 

IceBURG, 

I posted a question earlier, which I am wondering what your take would be. Do you recall or have seen where the Charlotte area has TRULY cashed in on a Miller A type of storm? I mean...sure, we have received the 3-6" with ip and zr also mixed from these systems, but have we TRULY scored lets say...12-16" (for example) from these types of setups? Or has anyone else in the carolinas scored (excluding the Mountain Regions)? Thanks and oh...I tagged you on FB about the Cantore Curse. He has touched down in CLT. I HOPE he is not planning on staying here. UGH...LMAO

Just now, griteater said:

I mean, you hear that a lot, regarding Charlotte being on the transition line, but we've had plenty of good snows over the years here as well...but no doubt it's more difficult here.  For this storm, I just think we are going to continue to see changes, so it's still a long ways out to really get into the specifics

Grit, 

I CANNOT REMEMBER the last time we scored BIG with a Miller A type system here in the Charlotte region. I mean...we have seen the run of the mill 3-6" snows, with ip and zr mixed in, but I cannot remember when we have been bullseyed with more than a few inches. I guess this is more of a question on if we have any records where we have really done well with a Miller A setup?  I am not being a weenie (well...maybe a little. HAHAHA) as this is sincerely more of a curious question, rather than "I am worried". IT SUCKS because seeing all these ONCE IN A LIFETIME MODEL RUNS that show EPIC SNOWS FOR MY BACKYARD is tough to hold my excitement in check. If anyone tells otherwise, they are lying. LMAO! 

49 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC.  Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them.  Read the thread below and temper expectations.  Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close.  

The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust.  Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right.  Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted.  QPF was also way overdone by the models  

Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right.

Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!

 

This is why I ALWAYS get more excited when we have overrunning with shortwaves dropping down to provide some ULL action. I am curious if anyone has any data on how much the areas OUTSIDE of the mountains have fared with Miller A storms? 

42 minutes ago, Wow said:

The wonders of low dewpoints as precip builds in.  God bless CAD.

QUOTE OF THE DAY!! HANDS DOWN! 

4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

@87 it goes...BOOM! This looks like a spectacular run for WNC/CNC 

Cannot wait to see the maps. Thanks man! Miss you brother. Fat burrito is no more. SIGH...

Just now, griteater said:

Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain)

UH-OH! If that scenario were to be realized, this would not bode well for Power and Property FOR SURE! 

Just now, msuwx said:

6z GFS had a good bit of snow for KCLT, per BUFKIT. 

Thank you Matthew! Hope all is well man! 

Just now, HKY_WX said:

To me this is just looking like a classic Mountains/Foothills/NW Piedmont snowstorm. I'm sure there will be some icing in the transition zone, however this is about as classic a looking setup you can get from AVL to HKY to GSO and northwest. Jackpot zone will likely line up over the NW mountains into SW Virginia.

Me and my wife are already talking about going to the Mountains this weekend! If things keep trending in this direction, I am going to load up the 4WD and head that way! 

4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Forgive my ignorance , but in a gulf system this strong, is there a potential for a ULL to form on the west side of the system? I feel like we've seen that with some storms in the past that allow the storm to "make it's own cold", but have not seen anything like that modeled here.

If I am not mistaken, the models (or a couple of them) is already showing this. 

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Sure do Skip! Good times!

So many times the kickers will come in 12-18 hours before hand and totally derail things. 

EE man. Also, thanks for kicking in the disco man! 

I remember when this happened with LC. EPIC! Robert (Foothills) OWNED that storm! He killed it. His warnings helped me prepare TREMENDOUSLY. Great times with all of you guys. I remember a lot of you from the WWB!! 

9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

People look for the fly in the ointment. Well it may be starting to show. The high is not as strong and phasing is being modeled sooner. Not sure why anyone in the se wants a phased storm. Though I see people rooting for it every year. That is only good for the MA north.

TOUCHE! I agree!! I would take an OVERRUNNING setup any day over phased.