Rankin5150

5 hours ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Praying for you bud. Praying for your friends and family affected.

3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Just a sliiiiggghhttt difference 

OUCH

1 hour ago, griteater said:

That’s a nice looking suppressed pattern on the GFS for Sunday. Low comes out of the NE Gulf but fails to throw precip back into the cold air 

This far out, i can live with that.

6 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Saw Matthew East on FB mentioning a nationwide cold spell for 2nd half of March, including a lock in the southeast.  Dont want it, dont need it.  I'm done with it.  Bring me 50s and DRY!!

Matthew is awesome. I would take his input ANY time over Bastardi. J/S...

1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Always next year. This one is toast as far as I'm concerned. Even if we pull off a March miracle I'll take it but March snow isn't my thing. Snow between 65-70 degree days melting in a few hours isn't my thing really.

There is always March 1960 analog to hang our hats on. LMAO! 

It looks like this round of runs is not showing any potential. Super quiet in here. Wish we had something to track yall. SMH...

10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That’s a great look for NC/SC Piedmont! 

This far out, it is a good look. The problem is...it is the 8-10 day conundrum, which we cannot get past. Tomorrow, it will be gone again. GRRR...

The models must REALLY be in TORCH MODE, because there has been NO activity at all in this thread today. LOL

For those feeling the angst of a SH!TTY winter so far, just remember that the Winter of 1960 in North Carolina went SNOWLESS until Mid Feb of that year. The record for TOTAL Snowfall in a season was broken in Charlotte, NC. It snowed on February the 14th and then another lull until March 2nd, where the snowgates opened up and it snowed back to back to back. They ended up with 27" overall, which is way higher than the average 4-6 b/s we see. Just giving some food for thought that winter is not always over until April, etc. 

This REALLY sucks that we have nothing to correspond about in the mid to long term discussion. Is there ANYTHING promising wintery weather wise? 

Looks like some of the models are showing light to moderate frontal snow event. If I am not mistaken, these types of systems favor more of the eastern areas of the carolinas and the areas west of 85 seem to get the screw zone with snow, etc. Will be interesting to see how this evolves...

Has anyone seen any responses from anyone on WHY the models are showing a suppressed look, with no cold? 

1 minute ago, Southern Track said:

He really knows his stuff.  The PAC Jet mention going into February doesn’t sound too promising.

I was thinking the same thing. GRROOOAN. I miss the early 2000's. The years between 2000-2004 were epic times. Tracking storms left and right, a couple of sizeable snowstorms between being nickeled and dimed. SIGH...LOL

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The inverse JB model has near perfect verification scores. Backtested for decades. 

CLASSIC! Love it Bob! Good to see you posting in our group my friend. I hope you and your family had a safe and wonderful Christmas and New Year! 

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not NYC or BOS or DC, so that’s a big win in my eyes!

AMEN Brudda! 

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This is normally a good look... but where is the cold

 

That does not look good...if you want cold temps, etc. 

14 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

How’d these 2 amazing storms do for Gastonia?? I was there at the time, but 4-5 years old!

Whats up Mack? I was 7 years old and remember it. I lived in the Oakdale area of Charlotte (North CLT) and remember 6-8". I need to check on that though. It was right before my father got Pancreas cancer and I remember him coming home from Eastern Airlines and having a snowball fight with us. Great times brother. 

3 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

yep. sickening how it does the little jump above clt. at least i got 2 hours of really nice snowfall rates. hope to cash in on a big one later this winter.

Aint that the truth brother. I really need to move away from the CHARLOTTE I-85 kiss of death. LOL

Just now, griteater said:

It's overnight into early morning for Western Carolinas

Grit, 

Thank you so very much for all your analysis and PBP. You are a Redtag in my book...all day-EVERY DAY! How much did you end up with in your backyard? Hoping this ULL holds a good surprise for us (or at least the ones who got the shaft on round one). Thanks in advance! 

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

A visual of the upper low dropping down thru Nebraska and Kansas - https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid

What  do you think from what you are seeing, with the formation of the ULL? Does this thing have some horsepower? Or do you think we will just get on and off snow showers? It will be interesting to see where this sets up shop at...

ULL's are so tough to forecast. I remember when NWS was calling for 1-2" and when it got going, they came back with the famous "there is a fly in the ointment" in their Forecast Disscusion and we ended up with thundersnow and 10-12" inches on the ground, when it was all said and done.  This was from the early 2000's. Do you remember that storm @Queencitywx? I believe we were on the Wright Weather at the time. 

2 hours ago, burgertime said:

Here is the HRR snow map... 

 

 

In my dreams man! I wish! I fear the mixing. I think these heavy bands rolling in will cool it off enough for at least a couple of hours of wet snow before back and forth mixing. Thanks for Posting on here the past couple of days!

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 Loop

I wonder roughly how many hours do you think this model recognizes that we have primarily snowfall?

12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.  

Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. 

19 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

fv3 holds serve, pretty close to 06z

I sure hope this one has the best verification score! WOW. The unrealistic weenie in me loves this one, albeit, it seems to have been the most consistent model the entire process (so far)!