sarcean

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

12z CMC is a hardcore winter storm parts of west-central NC up into VA....but it still has the Miller Bish look of running a low toward northern GA then transfer to the coast

I'm liking what I'm seeing but ....

48 HR Rule - NEVER trust ANY model showing snow in the SE past 48 hours

Wondering how Snowshoe, WV might fare. Some of the (clown) maps are calling for some high totals in the WV mountains - even the RLX NWS is calling for a 1 in 10 chance of   12".

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 211 PM Friday...

Upgrade to Winter Storm Warning for Forsyth... Guilford...
Davidson... Randolph... Alamance... Orange... and Person
Counties into Saturday afternoon...

Based on satellite, radar, and observational data including
heavy wet snow upstream from Jackson to Birmingham to much of
western NC (locally already 5-8 inches)... we will upgrade our
Northwest Piedmont to a Winter Storm Warning (2-4 inches of
wet snow), some locally higher totals possible. The battle of
the cold air (very marginal) with surface temperatures just
above freezing, and warmer air aloft intruding into mainly
eastern NC (or as far west as potentially Greensboro and
Lexington this evening), with an initial warm ground have been
greatly limiting snowfall accumulations thus far. However, as we
lose insolation with nightfall, most guidance suggests snow will
continue (very wet) through near sunset, with a potential lull
in some areas early to mid evening, before increasing again
later tonight. Storm totals of 2-4 slushy inches are possible
with locally 5 inches just north of the urban areas of Winston-
Salem to Greensboro, and around Roxboro. Roads should be wet to
slushy, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Saw NWS upgraded to Winter Storm Warning for Greensboro/Winston

1 minute ago, bargainmusic said:

Still snowing in Winston-Salem but I am not seeing anything sticking anywhere outside my window.

It is 33 in Greensboro and 34 in Winston so it will start sticking very soon.

4 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

also this should scare you if you have visions of clown maps dancing in your head, models may be underdoing the warm nose (imagine that)

 

Jonathan Wall‏ @_jwall

RDU flight observed sounding vs SREF from last night. Notice shallow warm layer from 900-1000mb and the tiny warm nose just before 800mb. It’s as if it was trying to tell us something!

 

To the surprise of no one who follows snow storms in our region.