Jump to content

sarcean

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    206

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by sarcean

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted 

    .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm
Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory
will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.***

Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern
Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep
South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered
over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to
wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our
forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly
across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from
surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through
the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually
advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having
said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of
the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as
precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent
valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA
as wintry precip).

Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic,
and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the
lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more
than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air
should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in
fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer
to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally
agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border.
However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high
precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature"
indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a
mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able
to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the
potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but
a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been
consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly
strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does
a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance
does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/
southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is
minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum
forecast.

Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the
Piedmont and  I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale
banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone
matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast.
Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and
even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high
precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the
afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even
in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly
this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a
cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance.
Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall
rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont.

In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9
inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across
the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA.
Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills,
where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip
rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the
northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the
Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those
zones may see little to no accum.

    One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    WWA advisory out of GSP: 

    Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville,
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville,
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton,
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton,
Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe,
Trinity, Indian Trail, Weddington, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Gaffney, Catawba,
and Rock Hill
    311 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches,
  with spotty 3 inch accumulations near the I-40 corridor, and
  amounts around 1/2 inch southeast of I-85.

* WHERE...Portions of the eastern Upstate of South Carolina as
  well as the foothills and Piedmont of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Thursday to midnight EST Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Roads will initially be warm and wet, but with
  slippery conditions developing as temperatures fall through the
  day. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Widespread black ice is expected Thursday
  night into Friday morning as temperatures fall into the 20s.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

    One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    It's amazing we have the best models there have ever been and they still disagree so much this close to the storm.

    I was in Greensboro last winter for the 14 inch storm (and was in Boone the same storm when 2 plus feet fell)  but kind of doubt anyone gets jackpotted like that. Would love to be proven wrong.

    Not holding much hope in Charlotte but a few inches would be great 

    • Like 1

    2/8/2020 Snow Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    52 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

    Ok, so we weenies give local Mets and NWS crap for missing these forecasts, and some think oh well, they were wrong, but they try!? That was half assed forecasting at best,! Imagine if this was a weekday, and this unfolded? Kids at school, it’s puking snow, they cancel school early, roads are a disaster, parents and busses are scrambling to get kids home, parents and kids lives are at risk because the resources the school systems rely on, were totally wrong!? Rant over, thank god it was Saturday I guess, they already had a “ rain” day off of school Friday here in Greenville county!

    You have to think of it like pure math

    If there is a 50-90% chance of it happening and only 10% of it exceeding that then you always do it for the more likely scenatio. The NWS knew it was a possibility today but it was didn't expect this rare scenario. It's a delicate balance since you never want to cry wolf.

×
×
  • Create New...