The Ole Bucket
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Everything posted by The Ole Bucket
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Thank you. Though I think, especially for this year, @Warm Nose ought to be considered da real MVP.
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
The Ole Bucket replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
A foot and a half for Charlotte next Friday. Definitely going to happen. -
The weirdness of the roads helped make this event not fun or memorable.. but at least interesting. Even after repeated plowing/treatments even the main roads remind me of the Midwest. Persistent ice and compacted snow (in this case sleet) to drive on. A bit of a throwback for me in that regard... while at the same time seeing significant accumulating sleet for the first time.
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It sucks that so many are missing out on big snows.. but the silver lining is that this sleet event is pretty unique and it's probably cutting down ice totals.
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I like to have power.
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Dingleberry pellets?
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Incidentally, the roads are passable in Charlottesville but not plowable because it's almost all sleet and it's 27F out there. Just an hour drive away from all those deathbands up there it feels like one of those weird winter storms that hits northern Mississippi or Alabama. Never seen it before.
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I think it's pretty clear that, somehow, the NAM is the new king.
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Pounding sleet in CHO Kind of hurts to walk in it
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Snow enough to get a coating, maybe an inch out there in Cville. Everything covered up quick. Now a mix between snow and pingers. 27.
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I think it was the only model having CHO even sniffing 5" And it was money.
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We were supposed to get a full day of freezing rain with the last storm and instead it was on-and-off and mixed with far more sleet than forecast or modeled..
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Whatever north trend the NAM had seems to have stopped.
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26/13 in CHO. Was actually pretty bitter this morning going into the gym. Wind was up a bit.
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One other thing that I'd cheer for that the models are showing... getting at least partially dry slotted after snow/sleet moves through. Please keep the big icing away, thanks.
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I know it's at range but I actually think the HRRR is showing something that's... likely? Possible at least? Going to be a lot of flipping and weird pockets of cold/warm air at 700. It just feels like that kind of storm where there will be sleet bombs in some areas while others not far away hang onto to much more snow.
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7+ for CHO and about 6" for DC according to Kuchera through 30 on the long range HRRR...
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Wait now there are TWO “claws”?
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Sterling getting slightly snowier..
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Well in fairness this is his opinion of trying to forecast it:
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One local met's take on the forecast for CHO anyway.
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NAM 3K gives DC like.. 90 minutes of snow before sleet comes in.
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Long and short it seems to me that the NAM is trending colder. I think the trajectory of this thing is locked in. All that matters are the 700mb temps.
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Wait actually I'm wrong on the juice if you look farther west. There was a kind of a snow hole in WV in prior runs. That's GONE.
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I'm not the best at reading the maps, but so far to me the NAM seems slightly less amped and a ever so slightly more south than 12z. CHO still all sleet verbatim, but I don't buy that.
