bwt3650

Last 2 GFS runs say we get our October opening at K-mart. 

The furnace is over and the rest of the month looks seasonable to somewhat cool, with some legit cold shots possible in fantasy land.  Hoping to see some mangled flakes on the peaks by mid-month.  Let's hope the nino delivers the moisture and the latitude plus elevation does it's thing.

Out of principal, I wouldn’t pay lol. Plenty of foliage not on the toll road 

I’ve personally never understood the fascination. I’ll walk outside and say to my wife, “ wow, cool colors” and then move on. People spend whole vacations staring at leaves. To each their own I guess.


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Jay today…I’d call that peak.

20 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is there a known average date when Killington is typically able to fire up their guns?

I remember getting over that way pretty early in the season a couple times in the early/mid 90's.  

Shouldn't be too long now until the cams start showing the whitening up for Superstar.  

The 90s saw a lot of October openings.  2018 was the last October opening.  In a recent interview, their GM was talking about how their focus is more on the late season, than the early season, which surprised me.   He didn't say they won't do it, but talked about the incredible expense and how production is so piss poor that time of year.  I got the impression they would still do it with the right cold window, but won't push it like they used too.  Superstar is where I think they would take any available window just for a few world cup piles.

The month looks to start out furnaced the first 7-10 days. Then do we mild down to normal mid month? Looks like another very wettie month for all. 

100 percent right on the furnace to start..I would say this is more than just “mild down” by the 9th as modeled. Don’t know if it lasts, but call it what it is.


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That cold shot showing up for 3 runs now would get Killington open on the north ridge in October for the first time since 2018 IF they wanted it...at the very least, lots of mountains testing their guns and turning things white. Then again, 24 hours ago temps were looking like late May so it's all a dream right now.

75/60
Hoping we can survive this uncomfortableness.

Dreary tho…has looked like it should rain any second almost all day.




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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s just too easy. We know how to instigate 

I actually enjoy it, especially during the dead months.  Can't take this stuff to seriously.  The storm tracking season doesn't officially begin until the first cries of winter is over in December. 

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't see how sun angle has factored into anything this week. 

it hasn't...just as ridiculous as saying nothing below 60 in New England until mid September or snow can't accumulate in late Feb.

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Last morning below 60 thru mid September for most 

50s for lows all week...we'll have frost by September....that mid august sun angle really doing it's thing!  Thank god we can count on it to heat things up in Feb.

One more night and it’s all a dream.

Can’t get hot in august…sun angle.


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It’s August 1st and that means it’s time to start thinking about the new ski season ahead.  

Our Epic Northeast value pass came in the mail today.  We paid the second of the three installments on our Killington passes today.   I went ahead and paid the final three installments on our Indy passes today.  So most of the lift tickets are paid for.  Time to start training for ski season and hoping for an early snowfall.

Here is shot of our back door in central Vermont last March 4th.  Let’s hope the back door looks like this in December.

 

Would be nice to see killington get back in the October ski game again..it’s been a few years since they’ve pulled it off.


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Wow , I love that this cool shot coincides with the aug 1 ski thread firing up 
Got the epic New England  value pass For me and my Gf’s 10 year old so looking forward to it 

I went ikon again due to western trips, but I’ll do a few day passes at Stowe and smuggs because I can’t go a winter without those two. That epic North east pass is a tremendous value tho.


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always look forward to this thread starting up!


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All a dream later week. 

True…not ready for snow guns yet, but 62/46 with full sun is pretty early fall like…And something about the first cool night stretch is always special to me as it means we’re beginning the climb back down.

I know full well the days of ball sweat aren’t over yet.


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Sweatshirts the next 3 evenings at the mountain. Some upper 40s for lows…


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Breaking news from CNBC on a weather phenomenon…




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Saw 88/72 at MVL for probably the most uncomfortable reading.
Did the two-hour hike to the picnic tables and back with the dog between 4-6pm. Just got home and holy shit that heat takes it out of you. I’m smoked.
Its great for swimming but just about anything else it’s a tough go of it.  Golfing, hiking, mountain biking, evening softball league, etc… could all use a bit more COC.
The mini-splits though are a game changer.  Can’t believe we used to try to cool with the noisy units. Now it’s dead calm and quiet and a dry 68F inside.  Feels like central air. 

Only did about 800 ft and the sweat was pouring off me..can’t imagine 2k vert.


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83 even up at the mountain today. 90 down in the valley in Newport. One of the few days you actually need ac up here.


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Another 0.40” or so in this latest thunderstorm.  Stratus up around the 0.70” mark on the day.
Made it about 7 hours without raining.

That was pretty intense up here. Feels better outside now though.


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Crazy thunderstorm..absolute downpour. Feels good now though


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Jay got nowhere near 350”‘this season . In fact that total is an embarrassment to anyone who records data . Not sure what the hesitation is on calling them out . It’s not like they are 100 miles north of Stowe. NW flow underperformed this year in a big way and jay likes to pretend nobody would notice their measurements .  Stowe ended March with a very good snow pack Thanks to that firehose that gave them 32” . Which is consistent with that photo shared from 1900’ @ Jay Condo 
 
The topic is about their measurement quality ..period . They mine as well have someone wearing a clown outfit report this years total . Is there some big deal calling out someone who slant sticks ?

Ehh..you’re making it about someone intentionally going out there and measuring 9” and saying to the marketing team “ let’s go with 15 because no one would drive up here for just 9”. I don’t think that’s happening. It’s an incredibly windy mountain with a crazy micro climate and I think it’s just a matter of unscientific, inconsistent measuring along with using a range. And to be honest, most outside of a weather forum don’t give a shit. It snows anytime, for any reason or no reason at all there and it adds up over a long season. We are snow tools so we want to analyze it all, but in the end, once the base is over 3 feet, put 6 or put 18 on top and it all skis pretty damn good. Again, they one hundred percent get more than Mansfield. No question. It’s just an argument over how much.

I could try and put a live feed camera in my backyard if anyone knows a good one that’s not crazy expensive or complicated and come up with some sort of plot, but I’m not there every day of the winter to get consistent measurements. Retirement in less than 5 and youngest graduates in 9 so that will be the winter I’ll try and get an accurate first to last flake winter and see where it’s at.


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They probably did, which is why they’d get more snow, just how much more though? The Cocorahs stations nearby don’t show much of note. The Westfield site at 1,100ft is only a few miles as the row flies and a normally a good barometer. They’ve put up some big snowfall totals; had 130” this year which almost seemed a bit below average.
I seem to remember most of the bigger storms this year being to our south in S/C VT.
Again, I don’t even think it’s on purpose, it’s just a function of estimating snowfall as many ski areas have done and some still do vs a controlled measurement in a singular location. 

As you pointed out as the season closed out, north of sugarbush almost always changed back to snow this season and saved an absolute disaster during so many storms. Most of vt. was an inch of slop followed by freezing rain and then a change back to a dusting, where jay changed back to 4-6. Very odd this year, or lucky.

Early Dec started strong and went to absolute dog shit by the holidays…but that mid feb to late March run was very strong this year. There’s no question this year outperformed last year.


March 21, 2022 @ 2250’


March 26,2023 @ 1850’


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I've always suspected their amounts, and it was confirmed by others who skied too. I'm aware of mesoscale nuances, but they aren't all that far from you either. Maybe you can argue they may do better on NW flow upslope, but I think you could make a case for those W-WSW lake streamers plowing into Mansfield as being better for you too. If you add it up, the stark differences between Stowe and Jay don't make sense to me. 

Jay gets the most snow in the east…period, no question. I’ve skied manfiejd and Jay in the same day and there is a difference. And south of there, they aren’t even in the same upslope ballpark. Jay will pull 6-8 on an overnight event 3 times a week, while even sugarbush is 2-3. It’s the frequency of the plus 1-2 that adds up over a 5 month long season. Plus add in a 3 degree temp diff at times with latitude. The only time anyone south of Mansfield cleans up on jay is synoptic or those lake streamers. Wind=snow in Vermont and you can’t possibly tell me the wind patterns are the same at Mansfield and Jay. The angle of the mountain is different and just wind holds alone would show the difference. Hell even stateside vs. the ridge sees a difference in snow totals. Burke is a similar distance from jay as Stowe and no one would argue they get half the snow at similar elevations.

Now, you want tell me their reported 350 is really 310; no argument. I think pf hit the nail on the head with the problem using a range and always adding the high number. I’ve always said they should get a plot and cam. They will always finish number one in the east, so show it off, even if it’s not as high a number as expected.


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