bwt3650

We hit 68F with thick OVC.  Dark but mild day.  Weird.
Now 61F and falling.

Not often you take a 68 straight down to snow making weather.


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Top 5 summer day. Where was this July and August?

Last and Hottest soccer game of the year; crazy.


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When will the Torchvember thread be up?

Snowvember


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What are the chances that northern mountains turn on the guns next week? Just looking at Wildcat from Monday night onwards, a possible window to start, or way too soon?

Killington 100 percent..I’d bet many others use this window up top as well. Doesn’t look like any prolonged torches to wipe away what they make.


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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will change mid month perhaps. 

what are you seeing our shepherd? 

That's about as good a start to November as you could ask for.  Nice consistent below normal temps and plenty of snow chances.  Snowvember.

It’s just been a terrible night as I’m getting messages of people I know that are dead or injured the nurses brother here’s brother is one of the ones killed at schmengees

Sorry to hear..you and your family stay safe bro…


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Someone who is mentally stable is NOT going to do something like this... so yeah I kinda do!

Sometimes, the act/person is so heinous the why doesn’t matter.


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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Instead of candy turning to diarrhea in bags.. candy bars turning into ice cream?

Welcome aboard.

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wonder if Kmart will go aggressive for an early to mid Nov opening....pattern doesn't look too bad after the cold shot either.

They can get those north ridge trails open with 48 hours of temps if they want it...I can almost guarantee they'll use this shot to start building on superstar for the world cup; just don't know how bad they want the open.  If it wasn't for those weekend days currently modeled in the upper 40s there, I'd lean toward a Nov 3rd opening if I had to bet.  Those trails are at 3000' though, so might still work.

Brutal cold for Halloween though. 516 thicknesses and flirting with -10C at 850. Gross for the trick-or-treaters.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

God that was brutal on the slopes, most places closed. -28 followed by -35, wind chills -65F.

For Wolfie… on Mansfield last February had the 2nd coldest reading during the second half of any winter since records started in 1954 with -35F (record was -36F in 1967).  February also set 3 daily record mins.

Maybe that off-sets the record late freeze 8 months later? 

Jan 22 was pretty cold in the northern greens too wasn't it?  I think I remember a solid 3 week period of pretty brutal days and thinking about wasted cold without a ton of snow.  

Yes sir lol…my parents said the same thing.  Funny sh*t. 

The only positive I will say about the 80s, and this may be total bs and a clouded memory, but it seems like retention was better.  Those frigid 85 and 89 periods could make a dusting last a week. Building a couple ramps on my sled hill, I could be going for three weeks on a couple inches.

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not around here they haven't been....the dryness is the ultimate killer over interior SNE for winter snowfall.

For ORH, the 1984-1992 period had 4 (!!) winters below 40" including a low of 28.1" in 1988-89. In the past decade, they have had zero winters below 40" with a low of 44.9" in 2019-2020.

 

Even a warmer spot like KBOS saw a much worse streak as well....1984-1992 for BOS had 5(!!!) winters below 30" with 3(!!) below 20". In the past decade, they've seen 3 winters below 30" with 2 of them below 20"....and you could probably write off one of those below 30" as fake since it was the year when they measured on Deer Island sewer plant and recorded 27.4" when everyone else had at least 35"+ around them. The only futility BOS excelled at in the most recent decade compared to the 1980s was the lowest season was slightly lower (12.4" last year vs 15.1" in '88-89)....but overall, that 1984-1992 period was a lot worse.

It's all perspective.  The 80's left a lasting childhood snow impression on some of us.  If you're childhood snow memories are  post  1993 Superstorm, you have a lot less tolerance for anything below normal.   

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

A guy got cutting a private trail in northern VT.  State settles timber trespass case with man who sought to create backcountry ski glades.  He cut in a state park south of Jay Peak.  There is a link in the story to the VT Backcountry Skiing Handbook.  This thing is 96 pages long!

If this is the one I'm thinking of, you can see the path from Big Jay.  I think he was trying to make a connection of some sort.

21 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

Well, that definitely puts this season’s first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow in the books, so Oct 22 is the date for the winter of 2023-2024.  The stats for this parameter are below for comparison – this is later than the mean date of Oct 11, but well within 1 S.D., so quite normal in that regard. Assuming a normal distribution, about 25% of seasons will have later first snowfall dates than this one.

The dates of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow for some recent seasons are shown below as well, so this season sits later than the past few, but ahead of most of that stretch in the mid-2010s, which was a surprising run of later October dates.

Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow:

Mean:  10/11

Median:  10/10

Mode:  10/17

S.D.: 15 days

N:  67

Most Recent:  10/22

Most Recent Days Deviation:  +11

Most Recent # of S.D. Deviation:  +0.732

Most Recent S.D. % Lower:  76.8%

Earliest 8/28/1986

Latest   11/17/1985

 

Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season:

2008: Oct 3

2009: Sep 30

2010: Oct 7

2011: Oct 30

2012: Oct 8

2013: Oct 24

2014: Oct 26

2015: Oct 17

2016: Oct 26

2017: Oct 27

2018: Oct 13

2019: Oct 18

2020: Oct 17

2021: Oct 18

2022: Oct 8

2023: Oct 22

Do you have data for 2000-2001?  I think that was a 500" year up here.  Curious how that started snowfall and temp wise.

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It was even raining briefly this morning.

We have not yet this fall been able to get a full night of radiational cooling; several times it’s been super cold for 9pm standards and then it just sits or rises after midnight.

Poor timing leading to really late freeze.

Lots of panic over these "firsts", but I think timing has a lot to do with it and they aren't necessarily a predictor of winter.

21 hours ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

 

Well, that definitely puts this season’s first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow in the books, so Oct 22 is the date for the winter of 2023-2024.  The stats for this parameter are below for comparison – this is later than the mean date of Oct 11, but well within 1 S.D., so quite normal in that regard. Assuming a normal distribution, about 25% of seasons will have later first snowfall dates than this one.

The dates of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow for some recent seasons are shown below as well, so this season sits later than the past few, but ahead of most of that stretch in the mid-2010s, which was a surprising run of later October dates.

Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow:

Mean:  10/11

Median:  10/10

Mode:  10/17

S.D.: 15 days

N:  67

Most Recent:  10/22

Most Recent Days Deviation:  +11

Most Recent # of S.D. Deviation:  +0.732

Most Recent S.D. % Lower:  76.8%

Earliest 8/28/1986

Latest   11/17/1985

 

Date of first accumulating Mt. Mansfield snow by season:

2008: Oct 3

2009: Sep 30

2010: Oct 7

2011: Oct 30

2012: Oct 8

2013: Oct 24

2014: Oct 26

2015: Oct 17

2016: Oct 26

2017: Oct 27

2018: Oct 13

2019: Oct 18

2020: Oct 17

2021: Oct 18

2022: Oct 8

2023: Oct 22

There's been a lot of talk in the main thread about panic over the October warmth, late frost, winter's over etc...but this data shows, as expected, that the timing of the first snow hasn't been a predictor of the winter in Northern Vermont.  For example:

 

2016 had a later than average first snow on October 26th and later than this year, but at jay, was well above average snowfall, 491"

2009 had a much earlier than average first snow on September 30th, but the year finished below average snowfall at 293"

Latest ever November 17, 1985 and if I remember, 1985 was a frigid winter, especially January.

From what I see, the October/early November "firsts" don't seem to mean much for winter.

 

 

Run the GEFS 5 day anomaly out to Nov 26th from 0Z yesterday…that’s not what it shows at all. Near record warmth, followed by a 3-5 day cold shot with some -10 anomalies, then a near normal month. It’s fantasy land, but so is a call for unabated warmth.


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Ski resorts snow guns put on hold is basically what the cold down fail does for ski folk.
 hopefully anything cuts to Chicago and gives us warmth without rain soaked days  

Killington starts blowing early next week and is open on the north ridge by the weekend. Nothing has changed. No one else besides maybe SR would have seriously considered opening yet. I bet all major resorts turn on guns above 2500 midweek if there’s a 72 hour window.


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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Would be quite the snower in the winter.

Base of ski area at a 2.64” storm total, and running 0.19”/hr upslope and gusting 30 NW.

Should have some upslope flow of some sort over the next like 24 hours.

1,500ft on east slope of Spine has had 1”+ more water than a few miles away here in town.  Might beat town by 2” water by the end tomorrow late day.

This radar in winter makes the ski community feels things.  Standing wave from Spine wringing moisture out.

 

Just beautiful.  2 foot powder day, but with wind holds.

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not all about looking at pretty colors. Look at the trajectory and how the jet has  changed . Noones saying a cool shot isn’t coming. It’s just slowly changing and backing down to the core to our west .Which typically happens now 

Ehh...same result; I put up 5 day averages, so the first week of November is BN anyway you read it.  We knew the epo dump would be plains first.  I'm busting balls more than anything, and don't pretend to know anywhere near as much as the veteran posters and mets, but you were full on sub tropical troll 5 days ago "It’s a furnaced look most of Nov . Hideous"  wearing shorts and having diarrhea while mowing on Christmas, or something like that..  The start of Nov is 100 percent not a repeat of October.  It's right where we want it.  The rest of the month is tbd.

Gfs did . As suspicious.. it’s all backing off 

Where exactly is the cold shot backing off?







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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

More wet than white? I guess best skiing is from Dallas to Pueblo. 

We plan on dropping our 350" average to 17" this year.  

looks cold to me

Snowvember?


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