bwt3650

It’s starting…nice step down. Steady as she goes.  Heading in the correct direction is the takeaway. 

Don’t know really but the mountain has always used November 1st as the time when it’s plausible to make snow and have a chance it sticks around up high.  Even if we get temps in October it’s usually not our game seeing as chances are high it’ll melt out.  It still can happen in November but to me, 11/1 is the start of snowmaking season when temps allow for a prolonged period (like more than 6 hours, system isn’t going on for like a 3-hr early AM chance).

Yeah and this warmth has no bearing on starting the snow season either.  All it takes is one good trough and could have widespread snow ahead of schedule in the first half of November.  Sometimes we see that, record warmth goes straight to a big snow event.  October 2011 was like a monster snowstorm for south/central in a sea of warmth I believe?

Currently listening to the sound of crickets in Augtober.

Again I’m not posting this with an agenda (feel like that’s required now when talking warmth), but our average first freeze is Sept 30th in Morrisville-Stowe. 
Latest 32F is October 20, 2005.  That’s tomorrow.  We haven’t been below 39F.  I believe Mansfield was record latest too.
It is very late, record late up north.

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

September and October will soon be an extension of the warm season. Soon it will be Jultember and Augtober. 

I like Augtober...Jultember is a stretch. Snowvember?

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Do you interpret warm talk as people moaning?  I never really did but it seems like you think every time it’s mentioned it’s a bad thing.

Is it better phrased like the bolded above?  Nice lil warm up, feels good this time of year?

I don’t get the angst with mentioning that its warm when it’s been that way.

Warms not bad...+10  in October is great weather.  In fact, I think you and I root for a warm Jan because that could still be snowy af; and no one likes sitting on a chair lift with -30 wind chills.  But the bs 360 warm anomaly, never going to snow again, winters over, cc is going to make NE Florida, CC is responsible for every warm up trolling gets old.   

I'll admit though, Nov 10th through about Dec 10th I hate the warmth as it delays the start of the season. That's one of the most important periods of ski season to get things going.

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, there's more predictive skill than a 384 chart.  

I get the sarcasm, but Halloween being balmy mild?  That was/is questionable as that range appears(ed) to be on the temporal horizon of a pattern change. To mention also ... 12 days away.

First in the foreground, there is higher confidence -EPO burst. Downstream, this drops heights over the western half of the continent - not always, but is the preferred initial response to the -EPO forcing. 

Heights fall in the west ... wave spacing arguments suggest we raise heights over the east. We see that happening in the ensemble means. It is all a reasonably confident evolution.

The question is timing the progression of these events; particularly what happens after the initial -EPO forcing. The natural progression is to collapse - or pulse down - the ridging of the -EPO, and as that happens, the PNAP tends to rise. 

Perennial North America Pattern (PNAP) is not quite the same as the Pacific North American oscillation (PNA).  In situations such as the -EPO burst, the PNA may drop negative, but in terms of relative magnitude, the PNAP drops more than the PNA.  Later on, the PNAP rises as the upstream -EPO pulses down, expressed as either flattening flow across the continental mid latitudes, or NW east of 100W or so... 

This total relay of events brings the cold east - how much or little is idiosyncratic to the exact layout of the PNAP at those times..  

Again, timing all that complexity is fools errand - it's more about knowing it will happen, but not really being very knowledgeable about when.  These changes can all take place quickly, or slowly. It's a morass. 

The way things worked out overnight in the runs, the models are attempting to progress through those chapters quicker - in fact, I've noticed this tendency to speed up the hemisphere ..( heh, which began in 2002 but that's another story).  Anyway, by the 28th ... 29th of the month, we've already transitioned into the +PNAP, lowered heights N of Lake Superior to Onterio, and are scraping morning windshields along 40 N. 

What's the typical timing of the ridge build to the response of the cold dump?    Is there a seasonal variation to where the cold is focused?

11 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

What an odd, narcissistic post.  Who the hell cares how how much snow one particular guy has in his own backyard...enough that it requires a poll?

Snow is not a team sport.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Next week will be mild. Maybe 70s for a day Friday. 

No doubt, but are you seeing any prolonged November torch?  It looks like a lot of battles of extreme temps.

There’s that record warm Halloween showing up again…melting makeup and diarrhea or something. Early November torch on the GEFS too. Just as much chance of verifying as the 384 torch a few days ago.





.

Black mountain is going to open this year after Indy Pass saves them for the season...apparently looking for new ownership.

When will palm trees start growing on the green ski trails?

When will palm trees start growing on the green ski trails?

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just something we need to accept in a warming world.

it would be nice if we could go back to the 80s with all those snowy winters before global warming took over in the 2005-2015 era.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lots of crickets out there chirping this morning. Never ending summer. Shorts season continues unabated well into November 

we really should start looking at winter 2024-2025.  It's not going to snow at all this winter.  November is shot; then we have the grinch to deal with, then sun angle starts becoming a problem in January.  Not worth getting invested.  

November is gone..Halloween is a torch! Nothing to see here.



Another 30 degree shift at 0z?


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First accumulation for the northern greens this weekend?




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Last year was a top 5 pile of dog crap in huge metro areas.  Even up in Jay, it was "ok" saved by late Feb and March, but the pack was 0-5 around new years at 1800'. This year will not repeat.  Slow, gradual starts to winter are just fine.  No need for October snow.  GEFS look normal once past next week, which would get snow possibilities in NNE where it should be in early Nov.

Lol, Ya that’s more than two weeks away…who knows what you’ll have by then.

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not if you're buried in debt.

 i don't know anything about the place. Looks like a small little local hill not really around much.  I hate seeing feeder hills that get kids into the sport close.  I'm just surprised at the timing.  Ski areas make their money from Christmas until Presidents day and I don't see a place like this making giant moves either way in market share.  I would have thought they would have tried to make it through the money making period and if it didn't work, call it quits in the spring.  But as you said, bad debt has no timing.

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That hasn’t changed, haha.

The costs to operate and what you need to pay people has skyrocketed in the service sector.  Previously if your business could barely survive while paying folks $10/hr, then when that goes immediately to $20-25/hr just to get a local high schooler to work for you… now you’re f*cked.

i can see the social media comments now "vail causes closure of Black mountain by paying workers $20-$25 an hour" 

29 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

30 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

sad...but seems kind of odd to make that decision a month before the season starts. 

Looking to buy a 2nd set of skis. Been skiing brahma's (188/88) last few seasons and I've always liked them, but wanted to try a wider ski, ~90s. I'm mostly an on-piste intermediate/advanced skier that'll ski mostly blue/black groomers, non-groomers. Can ski pretty much anything at SR except for the super tight glade stuff. Been considering the blizzard Rustler 9, Nordica Enforcer 94, Volkl Mantra M6. I'm 6'1", 155lbs and from what I've read, the Rustler would probably be best for me, but some reports of it being not as stable at higher speeds (2024 has full length metal edge so maybe better?) has me considering the other two.  I'd like to rip high speed GS groomers and the Nordica seems to fit the bill well. The Mantra, based on reviews appears to be a high charging heavy ski that at my weight may be more difficult to maneuver. Overall, I'd like a stable ski at speed, but still being able to execute quick turns on the steeper stuff. Any suggestions on these or other skis to consider?

Can't get too interested until we get a frost.  Today we passed 2011 for 2nd latest of 26 autumns, but I'm confident we won't approach 2021 when first frost came on October 24.  Maybe if the wind quits Monday night?

I’d honestly have to look at the old Coop data, that has/had the longest reliable data.  Off the cuff I’d say mid-October.