Bhs1975

It's not often you see a site with a reasonably long obs history have a  high 10º above the record.

Makes sense with AGW

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The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM.
Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM.    Anyone else seeing this?

Looks like the us had the least warming than any other country.


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A nice explainer on ice sheet dynamics and WAntarctic instability but not for the climate faint of heart.
https://www.sciencenewsforstudents.org/article/big-melt-earths-ice-sheets-are-under-attack

Searching for pingers or flakes. 33 and rain down this way.

Link?

From my untrained eye, the CC for RDU looks to be retreating a little... or are my eyes blind?
edit: At least to the counties west.

I’m ok with about .10 freezing rain after snow.  Awesome view when the sun rises with a little ice on the trees and coating the snow making everything glisten.  

As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge).
Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess.  

GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS  / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1

Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.

Which means a lot more hurricanes making landfall in the se and the gulf coast.

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Looks like the eye is tightening up.


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16 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Not only am I living in Florida now, but I'll also be on vacation in Puerto Rico the first week of January during the fantasy Euro D10 megastorm.  I think I'd be melting down if I still lived in NC and missed it while on vacation, haha.

At least I got to see a lot of snow during my vacation last year in Flagstaff and at the rim of the Grand Canyon.

I was in Flagstaff in August of 85 and there was still some snow on the peaks not to mention being in the 30s at night.

That would be due to internal natural variability. It's very unusual for the global temperature to increase 0.2c/decade, even in paleorecords. Thus we are still in uncharted waters if you include the hiatus.

 

Going from 380ppm to 450ppm is a big deal and could flip switches. Say the ocean going from a carbon sink to a releaser, etc. We cannot look at the past and expect it to continue.

 

There was no cooling trend, just a stabilization. This mindset is killing our chances, seriously.

 

The chance of another hiatus decade occuring this century is about 10%. Based on latest research.

 

We're screwed

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/03/11/entering-the-middle-miocene-co2-likely-to-hit-404-parts-per-million-by-may/

But what caused the cooling trend during that period?

We're f*cked

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2015/01/150126-blizzard-weather-climate-northeast-science/

I definitely notice this here but mainly rain as snow is rare especially this year. The soil has been soggy for months it seems.