Bhs1975

We need to get much better at drawing CO2 down than we are now at raising it up.

I guess you could say 2020 Trumps 2005 lol.

Frame this and put it in the "Weather Forum Posts That Aged Horribly" Hall of Fame right alongside the one he made about September 2017 being quiet.

 

Speaking of ldub, he hasn't popped into this thread in awhile...

Yeah he got pwned.

Starting to get some mid-level core alignment under nice convection. Perhaps even an LLC reformation has occurred. Might have downplayed potential impacts in Cuba too swiftly.

Yeah the ssts are still very warm.

Those small eyes are tricky.

Weaksauce

There’s a lot of warm water in the Bahamas that’s untouched.

It's complicated. First understand that this is not entirely unexpected. In fact, the IPCC AR5 WG1 prediction for SH sea ice, although significantly more uncertain than predictions for the NH, shows a slight preference for increases through about 2030 with the possibility of record highs persisting even through 2060 before things turn south (pun intended) down there too. I must caveat that by saying the uncertainty envelope does include the possibility of the secular decline starting around 2020 as well. The unfortunate state of affairs with SH sea ice is that our understanding of its behavior in a warming world is still quite nebulous compared to our understanding of NH sea ice behavior. Second understand that the see-sawing of temperatures and sea ice between hemisphere has been shown to occur during previous significant climatic change events so it is not unprecedented nor is it inconsistent with climatic shifts.

Anyway here are some things to consider...

• The NH is characterized by ocean surrounded by land whereas the SH is land surrounded by ocean. This trivial fact accounts for the bulk of the differences between NH and SH sea ice behavior. The consequences of this can be quite dramatic and contradictory between the NH vs. SH.
• A positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is associated with increasing SH sea ice. Global warming tips the SAM toward a positive phase.
• ENSO negative/positive phases reinforce positive/negative SAM phases.
• The Montreal Protocol through its ban of CFCs, repair of stratospheric ozone, associated cooling tendencies and other effects on weather patterns has been linked to SH sea ice increases.
• Increasing GHGs actually have a cooling effect on the Antarctica continent itself especially during the SH winter when the upper atmosphere is often warmer than the surface. Remember, GHGs act like a thermal barrier preventing IR radiation from passing through. This causes the warm/cool side of the barrier to warm/cool further. Positive/negative lapse rates get more positive/negative. Antarctica often has a negative lapse rate during the winter so GHGs cause cooling at the surface and warming in the upper atmosphere. This effect (among others) suppresses polar amplification in the SH.

Disclaimer...I'm not well informed regarding SH sea ice so hopefully others who know more about the behavior down there can chime in on points I've missed or mischaracterized.

The main take away here is that sea ice is mainly a NH issue right now. Most scientists do not expect NH-style declines in sea ice down in the SH anytime soon. And the fact that the SH responds differently than the NH is probably more the rule than the exception. 

The Greenland ice sheet was the last to form so

It will be first to go. The Antarctic ice sheets where the first to form so will be last to go.

If they actually had recon in the WPAC i could see this storm having something like an 875-885 mb pressure at its peak intensity, and probably something close to Patricia in terms of windspeed

I think this one was stronger than Typhoon Tip.

Can you imagine something like this hitting Miami or something like holy cow. 

Almost did with Dorian and with AGW it’s way more likely.

Josh not wanna chase this one?

Saw a great series on Nature last night about expanding forests to take carbon out of the atmosphere.  Bhutan is the world's first carbon negative nation.  We need to expand forests to get them to cover 60% of the world's land surface and that means a few trillion more trees.  That will greatly help our efforts to get carbon dioxide levels lower and improve biodiversity.
 

Unfortunately, a large chunk of the sea level rise is already baked in so to speak.

Yeap we would have to draw down the CO2 lower than preindustrial lvls to stop it at this point.

A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

It’s going to awesome to see what happens when all these coastal areas get flooded.

The link to the full response by Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes can be found here:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abbe82

It is abundantly clear what the ExxonMobil Vice President is seeking to do. Hopefully, in the future, ExxonMobil, among others, will have to pay full cost for their externalities (greenhouse gas pollution) and face legal exposure for deliberately misleading the public and investors.  There should be no de facto “too big to be held liable” for fraud exemption.

 

All oil and gas assets need to go towards fixing this mess.

I suspect that as climate change progresses, insurers will increasingly drop coverage in high-risk areas and the case for federal support to cover damages in those areas will be questioned. Some form of limited "buy outs" might be provided as an alternative to such support.

Or the losses will accelerate and collapse the economy.

Totally agree. Yeah the oil and coal industries have been horrible on the environment. This doesn't give the "green" companies a pass. There was a company pushing hard to have a huge wind farm on a migratory bird pathway by eastern Lake Ontario. They almost got their bird killing wind farm on a large scale except a bird watcher found a bald eagle nest on the exact area that they were gonna to put the  majority of the wind mills. In fact, they were going to have to take that tree down. They didn't disclose that there was an eagle nest their on purpose!  The entire project was cancelled. Serves them right.  When there is money to be made, companies do anything they can to make money, even if it destroys the environment. We saw with this oil and coal companies. Coal companies destroyed mountain tops completely! Oil companies have a terrible track record too. To think green energy is going to be different is wrong.

We need a strong well funded EPA and the states need strong well funded environmental protection. But you know how that goes. anyway, the prospect of wind farms on a massive scale will cause a lot of bird deaths especially raptors including eagles. The eagles just came back from the banning of DDT.  Contrary to what many of you may think of me, I am a staunch environmentalist. Birds are very adaptable creatures to changing climates. Cardinals for instance 120 years ago were southern birds. Now they have spread north to the northern U.S. Many other southern species have slowly been moving north. Northern species actually have been doing fine because of the maturation of northern hardwood forests and conifer forests. There has been no major declines for many forest birds. The birds that have declined most are those that nest in brushy areas ones that need less mature woods (which have grown up), field birds and shorebirds. Shorebirds are a BIG concern. Many species migrate up through the Plains from South America and the obstacles of wind farms now dotting the landscape in the fields that use to forage will eventually threaten many species with extinction. It is has been found that they do much better in the Arctic nesting grounds raising more young during milder summers which have been happening lately. Yet they decline still. It is likely the wind farms. Green energy is mean energy for birds. 

 

They survived a giant asteroid hitting the Earth. They will be fine.

With the economy weakened by COVID AGW will deal the final blow.

I forgot to add the crazy election coming up as well. How many more nails to we need in the coffin?

With the economy weakened by COVID AGW will deal the final blow.

Copernicus just released the September 2020 report based off the ERA reanalysis.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2020

It is the warmest September on record.

This brings the warming trend since 1979 up to +0.1910C/decade +- 0.005. In the last 24 months the trend has increased by 0.01C/decade.

Using the baseline defined in the IPCC Global Warming of 1.5C report and taking the average of the last 12 months from ERA the warming since the industrial revolution is now 1.3C. 

Looks like we’re gonna blow by that 1.5C limit soon.

All this forest management talk is BS. It made the issue worse but without AGW to dry it up we wouldn’t be having these mega fires.

There’s a lot we still don’t understand like these feedbacks that will make the situation worse.

Unfortunately, even if all greenhouse gas emissions ceased today, the world has committed to additional warming from the present atmospheric concentration of such gases. In terms of the Arctic, prior to 1990 (1851-1989), the NSIDC extended ice record indicated only 1952 had a minimum extent value below 7 million square kilometers. After 1990,, such figures became routine. Then, as Arctic warming accelerated, things deteriorated. 2009 was the last year during which the figure stayed at or above 5 million square kilometers. It is possible that the world has now reached the point where the minimum extent values will routinely fall below 4 million square kilometers. If not, it will very likely happen this decade. The 2012 minimum figure will probably be surpassed this decade, as well.

Even if we stop all emissions now we are still in big trouble. We need a massive draw down and solar blockage at this point.

https://news.yahoo.com/arctic-hasnt-warm-3-million-122739770.html

Recent report came out that perhaps saltwater ponds have been discovered beneath Mars' surface.

We may end up there soon by looking at the way things are going here.