Bhs1975

With the summer pattern lasting into mid October now the chance of landfalls will go way up.


.

hilarious stuff coming on the heels of an all time record for number of years with NO major hurricane hitting the USA coast......

Yeap the 2012 record will be normal soon.


.

It's coming. The pattern is breaking and most folks across the SE will be cool(er) from now into LR. We might actually be looking at some cold air in 10 days or so; whereas we could be talking frost.
The thing I really hate about this heat wave is it took some prime weather away from us; meaning I enjoy opening windows and not having to use AC or heat. We could be looking at a year where we go, within a couple of weeks, from AC to heat. 

I think the badly stressed/fractured ice means we can no longer get the scale 'meltponding' we saw back in 2012?

There are too many 'drain points' in the ice these days

This does not mean 'other factors' have now taken up that slack and so preconditioned the ice for melt?

The reduction in flow size by 'bottom melt' end of the season now means 'side melt' takes ever more of the floe compared with the old multi km floes where ,compared with the 'bottom melt', such losses were negligible?

The ice itself is making itself ever easier to melt more ice for the same amount of energy!

 

Yeah the feedbacks kicking in should mean an ice free arctic year round in about a decade.

.

Yeah we usually get an August cool spell. But it’s later now a days.


.

It really is simple. If you add more CO2 to the atmosphere than is taken out the concentrations will go up and more heat is trapped raising the equilibrium temperature. The PETM had more than twice as much CO2 as today and therefore was about 5C warmer closely matching todays models.

"Since 1960 the surface has warmed by 0.9C with very little if any of that being convincingly attributable to naturally modulated forcing agents.  The hydrosphere has taken up heat equivalent to 0.6 W/m^2 of forcing for decades. If a natural (and non-GHG) forcing agent were a significant contributor of this uptake then given this magnitude it should have been quite easy to identify. Meanwhile the observed uptake of heat is a close match to the consensus theory which includes all known radiative forcing agents in their appropriate proportions including GHGs"
 
How do you know this? Climate models? The ice core data clearly reveals that CO2 never dominated our climate system in the past 2.6 million years. So what is different now? It is a weak GHG with a small absorption band. H20 and clouds are 95% of the Earth's greenhouse effect. The whole theory, which is based on models, that CO2 drives the climate NOW is unfounded.  Explain to me how a highly non-linear chaotic system is linear in its dependence on CO2 level vs. temperature as is reflected in the ice core data?   The easy solution is that the oceans are more soluble to CO2 and other gases when they are colder by sucking CO2 in and outgas it when the Earth warms. This explains the lag in CO2 levels vs temperatures very well. Solar activity was at a 1000 year max in the late 20 century and was at a minimum during the Little Ice Age. How can anyone rule out solar variability in our modern warm period? There is some connection there. There has to be.   The hubris that folks on this board and climate scientists have about their understanding of the climate system is crazy.   The earth is NOT warming up rapidly either. Where do you get this from?  It is a slow rise well within the bounds of previous climate change in the Holocene. The Pleistocene has far larger climate swings. We live in a tranquil time of climate with slow modest warming. Many areas including where I live have not seen any changes in the last 100+ years. Take a look at average annual temperature for several U.S states(best observing network) as an example(below). If we are rapidly warming we certainly would have seen something significantly positive by now.  States like NY, ME, MI and ND  show small warming to NO changes. Any small warming is night time lows in winter where UHI dominates too.  There are many more states that I can run that show the same thing. The climate really hasn't changed much in the U.S since the 1890s based on the raw un-adjusted data.   Anyway climate sensitivity has to be low since ice core data shows that temperatures begin to fall as CO2 still climbs. If there were significant positive feedbacks ANY warming that takes places increases CO2 from the Oceans which then would kick in the so-called positive water vapor feedback which would amplify the warming leading to more CO2 from the oceans and more water vapor and so on. What is the breaking mechanism? What is being proposed is the CO2  modulates the hydrological cycle and sets a level for water vapor. Where are the equations for this? I have never seen this. Climate models are woefully inadequate. They don't handle clouds or convection which have a major role in the Earth's energy budget.  If you put your faith in this, your nuts. To destroy the energy sector which sets the high standard of living we enjoy is suicide as a species. That is where we are headed. Environmentalism is not helping the planet, it is destroying it by keeping third world countries poor by not allowing access to cheap energy from fossil fuels.  Poor people live miserable short lives in third world countries and are desperate so they destroy their environment by hunting and unsustainable farming methods. Environmentalists has brought tons of wind farms which have wrecked loads of wild areas in the northeast U.S and other places.  They kill birds and bats. Its horrible.  People suffer and the environment is wrecked.  

Free fall...

The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Yeah feedbacks are kicking in hard. It’s like when all the ice melts in your cooler and the the water warms up quickly.

We used to get August cool spells with highs in the 70s every year.


.

Studies of the PETM agree quit well with the updated models.

https://www.aps.org/units/maspg/meetings/upload/wing-111715.pdf


.

CO2 is toxic in only a few percent concentrations.


.

.

The UAH Satellite record had +.38C for July which is minimal.  The CFSV2 reanalysis data shows +.305C for July....hardly anything to go nuts over. The record lows are skewed because of UHI. Plain and simple. 
 

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when all that coastal property becomes worthless and the inland ones may actually increase in value.

This is called weather, not climate.  We get heat waves, it rains, it gets dry, there are tornadoes and even hurricanes at times. In the winter, it snows and gets cold too. Why does climate change have to be blamed for everything? The climate is always changing and has been for the existence of the earth.  The records broken could be related more to UHI which has a profound effect on surface records.  I highly doubt CO2 concentrations ( which is a weak GHG  )had anything to do with this. I looked at the observations the day Paris broke its all time high and dewpoints were in the 50s so it was pretty dry. There is no water vapor feedback going on here locally. It was related to downsloping off mountains and UHI.  CO2 absorbs and emits radiation centered around 15 microns which by Wien's Law affects temperatures between -50C and -110C (centered around -80C). CO2 had little to do with the temperatures related to this heat wave.  This is basic physics.  And for scientists to already be writing papers about this is disingenuous or just plain ignorant. 
 

I also think the expanding Hadley cells are make landfalling hurricanes more likely.


.

What is remarkable is how warm the East Coast has been especially south of NYC despite the favorable indicators for below average temperatures. (-AO/-NAO)
The global warming signal is very strong and as a result the Hadley Cells are very expansive.

In a very big way

Deniers looking pretty dumb at this point.


.

What is the bottom melt end of the season?


.

In a very big way

So the all time record low is in jeopardy?



.

If that's true, why have the past several winters been so benign?

This crazy weather is common now.


.