Conway7305

Looks like this Monday system is fizzling out. I think that might wrap up the winter unless the PNA decides to go positive again. We have warm temperatures coming for early March. Overall, this winter has been better than last winter for sure.

Huge bust for Western Henrico. Oh well. Mid March may deliver one last time if PNA can go positive again. .

Just rain in Short Pump. Nohting….lol What a bust

Just saw that!

12z AIFS Enzemble Members show some big hits for us

Several of the 18z AIFS Ensembles members have some BIG dog totals for Feb 14-15th timeframe.

I should have rented a Cottage in OBX this wknd.

Some serious eye candy at 318 hour of 0z GFS run….lol

The SREF and HRRR are couldn’t be more different currently . 18z HRRR has basically no snow in most of VA and everything sliding into NC/OBX minus a few inches for VA Beach. SERF has moisture surging ahead even into DC. A few of the SREF ensemble members has as much as 12 inches for Richmond… Lol.

Next storm opportunity Feb 4th-5th. However I’ll be up in PA so will probably miss that one…lol

This whole wknd storm seems odd on the euro. It looks like the low forms right off the OBX coast, and then drift southward and tucks into the border of North Carolina and South Carolina and then ejects East. I wonder if there’s any chance of that low just tucking into the VA coast instead?

This setup is sooo close to a big hit. If the Low shifted just 30-50 miles W, we would be talking big snow totals. Still a few days to go so we have that on our side. Minor changes can either be huge or bust for us.

Lots more hits this run. Will take p3

Would be cool to see all the ensemble members for that run. I’m sure some decent hits are in there.

Did the northern stream trend weaker? Is that why the slight jump NW.