Conway7305

I should have rented a Cottage in OBX this wknd.

Some serious eye candy at 318 hour of 0z GFS run….lol

The SREF and HRRR are couldn’t be more different currently . 18z HRRR has basically no snow in most of VA and everything sliding into NC/OBX minus a few inches for VA Beach. SERF has moisture surging ahead even into DC. A few of the SREF ensemble members has as much as 12 inches for Richmond… Lol.

Next storm opportunity Feb 4th-5th. However I’ll be up in PA so will probably miss that one…lol

This whole wknd storm seems odd on the euro. It looks like the low forms right off the OBX coast, and then drift southward and tucks into the border of North Carolina and South Carolina and then ejects East. I wonder if there’s any chance of that low just tucking into the VA coast instead?

This setup is sooo close to a big hit. If the Low shifted just 30-50 miles W, we would be talking big snow totals. Still a few days to go so we have that on our side. Minor changes can either be huge or bust for us.

Lots more hits this run. Will take p3

Would be cool to see all the ensemble members for that run. I’m sure some decent hits are in there.

Did the northern stream trend weaker? Is that why the slight jump NW.

AIFS big jump NW. Euro jump NW as well

GFS always like 2 days behind the Euro and plays catch up

Icon did come back NW some but not enough. Positive change I guess from 12z run. OBX gets wacked.

Icon did move the storm N on this run

the only thing positive I can post is the 12z GEGS ensemble members. Lots of good hits for now.