tramadoc

Look at the last two storms for CLT. Two flakes in CLT, crushed to the left of us. Then, two flakes in CLT and crushed to the right of us. I would take a F'ing ZR storm now..and then that went poof. Hey, at least I have frozen pipes in the Master Bathroom...so there's that. 

I think all members south and east of RDU should leave the board for ten years.  

My subdivision. Taken by Phantom RC Drone.

Gotta be honest, this Monday ice potential for the piedmont feels like Mother Nature is just rubbing it in and is more frustrating than exciting. I suppose seeing a glaze of ice is better than nothing if you like winter weather (which I do) but it's just ridiculous to have all this cold and can't get a drop (while everyone to our south and east gets plastered) then the cold high tails it out AS the first freakin drops start to fall. "Oh, here's a token ice glaze that will amount to nothing and melt in ten minutes, but see, you got you winter storm (while Charleston is still digging out of historic snow)" Gee, thanks Mother Nature, nobody wants your messy ice when it would have been snow any day this week! Except I do because I like winter weather, but I don't because it's nickel and dime and I want SNOW!
I'm sick, I need some help; anybody?

Only because we're nowhere near the reporting station and just kept snowing heavy here since 5am.

We have a foot

Still snowing KECG

I don’t know if any of you follow WxSouth on Facebook, but Robert is a good synoptic forecaster.

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If nothing else, he was positive.

Whatever happened to Brick? I enjoyed reading his dissertations on the weather because they were basically rewordings of the opining of others.

All I read is how it's coming west... They want it to come west... They get snow more often than we do. I understand the wanting it to snow, but what they want is ridiculous. They want snow at the expense of everyone else from I-95 east to the coast. It's like they're rooting for us to get nothing but rain.

Wishcasting and NAM hugging has become insufferable in the SE forum lol
AKQ issued Winter Storm Watches for the area. Current amounts are 3-5", which is reasonable. Looking good!

Be prepared for a non-event.

AKQ AFD...

Latest 01/12Z models are into fairly good agreement with the pattern, though some notable differences persist. The ECWMF continues to be a little more aggressive at bringing deep moisture and therefore higher chances for pcpn to the local area while The GFS is slightly driest/farther offshore. The 12Z NAM had some peculiar secondary band NW of the main axis of precip along the coast (and was showing significant accumulating snow into the Piedmont). The 18Z NAM has genly gone away from this idea. Ultimately, will depend on how rapidly the northern stream and southern stream mid/upper level flow can phase, but its beginning to look as if at least SE 1/2 of the CWA will receive significant precip from late wed aftn/evening through Thu morning. Forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS/ECMWF which now brings a period of likely to Cat PoPs (60-80%) into NE NC and SE/eastern VA mainly by Wed evening, gradually shifting off to the NE as the sfc low further intensifies offshore wed night/Thu. Sfc dew pts and therefore very dry air looks to be hard to dislodge farther to the NW, so would anticipate a sharp cutoff in precipitation across NW 1/2 to 1/3 of CWA. Highs Wed mainly in the mid- upper 30s, possibly around 40 far SE. Critical thicknesses support all snow inland, to a changeover to rain or rain/snow mix along the SE coast Wed early evening before a change back to all snow. Mainly a 5th period event, so too early for a watch, but HWO mentions this potential storm and will continue to closely monitor trends on this system. First cut at snow accumulations favor highest amounts over interior NE NC/SE VA and the eastern shore (approximately ASJ to PHF to WAL). Most of this occurring from 00Z to 12Z Thu. Very little model guidance depicts higher snow amounts west of I-95 (even the ECMWF would support little to no snow amounts in the Piedmont). Lows Wed night mainly in the 20s, except upper teens NW. Drying from WSW to ENE on Thu , and will have high chc to likely PoPs until early aftn on the eastern shore, tapered to a dry fcst across SW/W 1/2 of the CWA. Windy and cold with highs mainly ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AKQ now says little to no snow accumulations

From NCSNOW in the SE Forum:

Just read a good mets opinion. Thinks jackpot is 6 to 12 between Raleigh and I 95. Mixing I 95 east. 

And we get screwed again.

We get it DT...it’s only going to snow in s-NE and Maine.  100 tweets on that today.

Hell is going to freeze over. The Buffalo Bills made the playoffs and NE NC and SE VA could get snow.

Snowing southern OBX (Buxton and Avon).

I'm tired of getting nothing but rain while 50/100 miles away gets smothered in snow.

Chesapeake Bay effect snow is possible again tonight into tomorrow morning. 850s should plummet close to -20 degrees celsius with some persistent N-NNW wind. Boundary layer will likely be too dry and prevent any accums, but I'll take mood flakes as the ball drops. 
EPS mean is about 2", which is not too bad but it's likely skewed by a couple of big dogs. 12z GFS is just coming out and did a slight jump west with both precip and SLP. Verbatim still a non event W of I-95. 

22 degrees in Virginia Beach and flurries! There is a very light dusting so far, let's keep this Chesapeake bay streamer going.

 

Down to 33.0

Temperature is steadily falling. We're now down to 33.4 with moderate snow. Sticking to elevated surfaces and grassy areas.

Starting to stick. My daughter having fun.