tramadoc

JB is in on cold coming back. I'll take my chances with winter returning later this month and March. 
After all he was right when cold came in December and right with January thaw as well. 
 

• Do you think SE VA is done with its acummulating snow chances this winter?

Anthony Masiello on Twitter. He used to post on AmWx as "HM".  He's top notch with met knowledge and forecast ideas. 

I appreciate that, thanks.  I try to learn every day/year. Grew up a Carolina fan. Jordan and Worthy playing Sampson and Wilson in Charlottesville, doesn't get any better...but I went to State and have converted.  Hopefully we can see one more good storm before it's over.  Normally, strat warnings don't lead to cold weather in the east during La Ninas, but HM makes some points that go against that this year (favorable MJO and poleward propagating -AAM; the former would aid in western ridging; the latter would aid in slowing the jet in the polar regions for potential blocking). We can only hope and dream at this point though, ha

You know there's nothing on the horizon when the mid to long range discussion drops to three or four posts every 8-10 hours.

The piece of energy we're waiting for hasn't been sampled yet.

It's an outlier.

_____ model is all alone.

Just wait for the evaporative cooling to take affect.

Please add as you see fit. This should be an ever changing and improving list.

What, no bass?

Weatherboard clichés.

1. Torch.

2. MJO will save us.

3. SSW will save us.

4. Fab Feb is gonna rock (insert other word here).

5. The weeklies suck.

6. The weeklies don't have a clue.

7. We need that -NAO.

8. How does the EPO look?

9. What about the PNA?

10. Damn SER rearing it's ugly head.

11. Damn GL Low messing us up.

12. Apps runner!

13. Maybe this clipper will overperform!!

14. Enjoy your cold rain.

15. 850's are marginal.

16. That is/shows ________, verbatim.

17. Cold chasing rain.

18. I'd rather have cold/dry instead of warm/rain.

19. _______ model doesn't deal with CAD very well.

20. Is this an in-situ event?

21. February 2004!!

22. December 2000!!!

23. Need that low down in the gulf.

24. Northern stream is too dominant.

25. Suppression city!!

26. The MA or NE is going to score big with this one while we watch.

27. Need that low to pop just off Hatteras.

28. We never score with Miller B's.

29. This system looks more like a hybrid to me.

30. Maybe we catch some backside flurries after the storm exits.

31. This storm sets the stage for the next one.

32. Need that SW to exit around the Four Corners region.

33. The high moves out too quickly.

34. The _____ doesn't model this type of system very well.

35. Wait until we are in range of the mesoscale models.

36. That warm nose is problematic.

37. Rates will overcome 2m temps.

38. That high is setting up in the wrong place.

39. JB or DT says _____________?

40. Pattern change is coming. Give it time.

42. _____ pushes the cold back another week.

43. I'm hugging the _____ (insert model here).

44. ____ for the win (insert model here).

45. It's an outlier. Toss it.

46. It shows nothing for MBY.

47. I'm tired of ____ scoring big while I sit at 35 and rain.

48. I'm done with this model watching. It's going to do what it's going to do. I don't even care anymore.

49. Funny how the rain/snow line sets up through ______ (Wake County maybe??).

50. I have a good feeling about this one.

51. Verbatim, nothing outside of the mountains.

52. I need to move.

53. Looks like an I40/I85 special.

54. I can't believe the NWS is going with those amounts.

55. Brad P always shoots low then adjusts.

56. Fishel doesn't like the chances.

57. Did Fishel and Elizabeth Gardner even talk?

58. I don't like the H5 look.

59. I love the H5 look.

60. Need a more neutral to negative tilt.

61. Need that sucker to dig a little more.

62. Looks like it might try to phase.

63. It's closed off. Someone will score big time.

64. What's the ratio?

65. Is that Kuchera?

66. Looks like a deformation band setting up.

67. Climo always wins out.

68. What are the analogs?

69. What's it look like for MBY?

70. When will the event start for ______?

71. Do we get a change over?

72. Flizzard.

73. What's your wet bulb?

74. What's your dew point?

75. Going to lose a lot of QPF to saturating the atmosphere.

76. Wasted ____ QPF due to trying to overcome this dry air mass.

77. Why haven't (insert NWS office here) issued any watches or warnings?

78. Go ahead and punt.

79. Winter cancel.

80. Figures that we'd find a way to screw this up.

And my very last is just for Mack.

81. Break out the pre-emergent!!

Feel free to add on. LOL

Sean

Get your mowers serviced boys. Spring is coming.

I wouldn't be that negative...yet. We know that GEFS and EPS haven't been too reliable in the long range this winter, especially with the phantom SE ridge. I think the problem with this pattern is that Atlantic is not cooperating at all. And it's NS dominated. But that has been the problem throughout the winter. -EPO/+PNA can only do so much. I wouldn't stick a fork in the winter, but things look worse than they did about three days ago.
In the end, ORF is sitting at 13.1" for the winter, I'd be greedy if I wanted more. 

Once again, punt one to two weeks longer. That seems to never change.

Flounder, Grouper, Mahi Mahi, Tuna, Snapper, Trout, or Cod. That's the only fish I will eat. Not eating a bottom feeder.

Yep, it's all about that flounder and perch, skrimps and scallops! Damn them nasty catfish fillets or whole or salt and peppered, yuck

MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians.

MJO in Phase 6 is currently at it's highest level in this phase since records were kept starting in 1979. Long Range does not look good for cold weather folks. I think if we don't see a drastic change on the models in the next five days, you can go ahead and stick a fork in this winter season for areas east of the Appalachians.

Milk and bread for the superbowl?! More like a beer and fish run, that's my Sunday dinner, beer battered catfish

Somebody PLEASE FLAG THIS AS BANTER! Thank you There's no need for your unimportant response. Stick to weather and don't respond to me again. Thanks!


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It's about to be roof crushing and tree busting snowfall!

Boom goes the dynamite 

I'll take this all day.
 

I still use it, but I'm old! What's the GEFS say about the 5-6th storm?

I know it's the end of the run, but the amount of potential this could have..... i don't want to post all the frames and create that way too long post, but another low follows this one. Interesting 5 days setup in that time frame.

Euro played catch up with the last storm. 

What is it?