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tramadoc

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    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    16z HRRRRRR and RAP both show 4"+ for VB. Verbatim they have a 4"+ strip of snow from Ocracoke into Hampton Roads. NWS usually goes with a blend of those two models when forecasting inside 12-18 hours. It has gotta be hard right now for AKQ mets because most everyone here expects 2" at most. 
    In other news, temperature is down to 31 degrees on the closest PWS. KORF is at 32 at 1pm. Mixing ain't happening.
    Am I in that? LOL

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Thought you might like this from the latest AFD from Wakefield.

    Confident in period of moderate snow inland, given well-modeled
    narrow band of negative EPV dropping over the SW zones in the
    Piedmont (I-85 corridor). There could be a very narrow corridor
    of 4-6" of snow in this band. However, expect this would be very
    localized and hard to pin- down, so there is no need for a
    watch or warning at this time. Slightly less confident into SE
    VA. To reiterate...we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory
    over Hampton Roads for the late morning and afternoon. However,
    we are still a bit concerned with sharpening axis of F-Gen/OPRH
    depicted by the 12z (and now 18z) high-res NAM. Issue will be
    that we will have a very narrow window within which to receive
    moderate snows into Tidewater area, before best axis of moisture
    slides offshore. Potential is there for warning criteria snows
    (and criteria is 3" for SE VA). However, after collaboration
    with neighboring offices and WPC, will hold off with warning for
    now. Narrow window of potential snowfall is the primary issue.
    Should later model runs continue to depict this potential, an
    upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for all or part of the Hampton
    Roads area may be needed.


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    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Pivotal weather has the kuchera ratio maps
    Hi Res 18z NAM
    snku_acc.us_ma.thumb.png.c62b2dcbbf2b8905e7b31ce60badc9fd.png
     
    Kuchera ratio map for the height of the precip in our area. Healthy 12:1 to 14:1
    ratioku.us_ma.thumb.png.c43d694e1064a4fa103e9abc54a751ea.png
     

    Thanks Steve. Looks as if we are on the upswing with totals. I’d like to see at least 3-4” if possible around here. Hope everyone scores.


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    • Like 1

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Kids in VBCPS have been out for 7 school days for the Jan 4 super-extra-mega-bomb-cyclone. They will probably be out tomorrow and possibly Thursday. 

    On topic...I don't know what we did to deserve 18z NAM, has about 5" for ORF using Kuchera ratios. RIC might get fringed though. 

    I really hope that everyone can score better than 2” with this. The NAM has been trending wetter farther east with each successive run. I am hoping and praying that it’s correct and RIC, ORF, ECG all see amounts 3” and higher.

     

    Where did you find the Kuchera graphics? Can you post ECG for me? Thanks in advance.

     

     

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    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    Good tip.  I know DT is bullish and everybody, and I mean everybody here at my office follows him.  We have had a couple of opportunities but none have truly delivered and I can't complain in a region that can go years without a snow chance when we have 3 before the end of January but the hate for the RIC in other threads is a bit annoying.  It's like we get dumped on all the time.  Bob C. put a nice PSA out there and did some clean up in the thread but wow, winter is not over and I will bet a dozen Krispy Kremes that Winchester, DC and other points will do far better than RVA when all is said and done.
    I can't take the constant snark that DT has.

    Richmond Metro/Hampton Roads Discussion

    in Mid Atlantic

    Posted

    AKQ lowered their forecast to 1" for Norfolk/Va Beach. They decided not to issue a WWA either, hopefully the band doesn't dry up and we overperform.

    33 degrees w/ a visibility of around 1/2 mile. If the fog doesn't clear out in time we could seriously undercut the forecast high of 45.

    In their revised AFD at 1140 or so, they stated that looking at 12Z model runs they might put up a WWA for NE NC and SE VA during next package output due to increase in QPF.

     

    By the way, we won't hit our forecasted highs for the day.

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