tramadoc

Think I saw 12-14”!!

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

Keep in mind I'm covered in the KCAE NWS discussions... 8" would be amazing but I will take the .7" mean

I’m going to take my 1.25” of rain and think wistfully of what could be if only temperatures would cooperate in SE VA & NE NC. I have the beach less than an hour away, so it’s nice when I want to go to Kitty Hawk and fish, but not so good when I want snow. Meh... I like beach weather instead of cold rain, but what can you do. Hope you guys west of me cash in so I can see pretty pictures of snow and Christmas decorations.

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I’ll take my cold rain and wait for January.


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Get ready for a cold rain.


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I guess I’ll just stand here and look at a cold rain for this event. Hampton Roads misses out on this one.


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That would coincide with when the blocking would be relaxing some; definitely a time when storms tend to occur. 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
 

There is your proof

If the Browns lose to the Chiefs I have to trim my eyebrows to make them look like a female curve as a bet... I hope and pray we pull off the upset

Looks like DT is all in on a rocking and snowy winter with plenty of cold to be found.


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Storm chaser. His video is now being shown on the live weather channel feed.

Who is Brett Adair?

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Recon just measured a 918.3 hPa extrap and 161mph flight level winds. Waiting for confirmed numbers and dropsonde.

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Because of course he did.  Hype machine in full effect.  Whether it's winter with 2 foot snow storms or tropical armageddon, it makes headlines.  Not saying he's wrong, but I don't see it anywhere else....yet.  Not sure how he can always be "first to know" on literally all things weather.

DT just posted on his Facebook page that Michael is now at 915mb and 160mph. Cat 5.

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This. I'm no Josh but I have been in quite a few canes.  The best way I can describe it is although the measured wind velocity may be the same a strengthing cane feels much more violent. It swings wildly and very quickly from less wind to more. It is almost like taking repeated punches from a professional fighter(don't ask me how I know that). A weakening cane may have the same amount of variety in wind speed but it feels much more smoothed out.  It raises and lowers much slower than a strengthing cane.

Looks to my untrained eye that if it continues on the track it's on (looks like almost NNW) that it would make landfall around Beaufort, NC.

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Q: how is it weaking when its dealing with almost perfect conditions? Or is a situation it's due to the large eye the wind is less concentrated?

I hate to see what’s going to happen to Wrightsville Beach and Masonboro. Always my favorite spots to surf. I taught my now 16 year old and 14 year old daughters to surf there when they were 8 and 6 respectively. My 14 year old has been wondering all week if where she learned to surf will still look the same.


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I'm looking forward to it too, stay safe during Florence!

Here is where I got it from
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1039895342609772544

There's no way the eye is 140 miles wide. That would be greater than the distance from Wilmington to Raleigh which is only 114 miles.

SC is already closing schools tomorrow. I guess better safe than sorry, but that seems a bit extreme.

FV3

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NHC track looks mostly the same, maybe a tick to the east.

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I'm not too worried about the effects for KECG.

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