I swear at least for my back yard and this especially pertains to lake effect, if they issue a advisory or warning, I plan for little. If the setup seems possible but no headline just about guaranteed it will over perform. It happened twice just last week, with that shallow lake effect both times they put on a wwa the snow died off. Dropped it picked back up.
I didn’t have any expectations for today, I’m sitting here looking at 3/4”-1” hr snow fall.