vpbob21

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Shades of the phantom bomb of Feb 09.  

Would be super rare indeed.  In fact, I will ride the UKMET for the rest of my life if that verifies.  

That's usually a dream track for OH but snowfall amounts look really lame, only around 3-6".  Can't really tell from Pivotal's maps if it's still snowing at 144h but even if it is, tacking on another 2 or 3 inches still makes it a disappointing storm.  Don't get me wrong I would certainly take a 3"-6", 4"-8" snow (best snow I've had this season is 3"), but with a 972 mb low tracking NE through WV you would think there would be a swath of 1'-2' somewhere (at least).  It's amazing how even storms with good tracks have managed to screw most of us this season.

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah Worcester has 25.3" this month. Seems like elite territory. It would be for most of us in the Lakes region. 

 

Right, 25.3" is a whole season down here in Ohio.  I had 24" total all last winter.

Great analysis OHweather, as always.

I mentioned in the main thread that I just find it hilarious that Ottawa/Sandusky/Seneca/Erie/Huron/Lorain/Medina counties are the missing link in an otherwise unbroken string of winter headlines that runs from Montana to Maine.  I guess I can't really blame them for not wanting to pull the trigger, knowing how bad our snow climo is around here.  I do think some of the counties left out of headlines will eventually be added, especially Lorain and Medina (perhaps even warnings there) and probably the inland counties of Huron, Sandusky and Seneca.  The lakeshore counties might be a little more borderline with the warm lake temps cutting into accumulations,  but at the least it looks like everyone should get on the scoreboard for the season.

Have to laugh at the 3 county wide area in north central Ohio (of which I am in the dead center of) that breaks up the solid string of winter headlines that runs from Montana to Maine.  Can't say I blame CLE for holding off - just shows how tough it is to get it to snow around here.

Approaching the mid-point of June and I haven't had to run the AC in the house yet.  I'm loving it!  Have had a couple days where the house got a little warm but it cooled off the next day.

Looking at the extended, looks like the non-AC run might continue a few more days.

In my area I would perhaps generously give this winter a D+.  I can't give it an F because we did score with one nice storm (8" on 1/19-20).  But the rest of winter was pretty much garbage.  Only one other snowfall over 2" all winter (3" on 1/12) and just 23" total.  Very disappointing considering how promising the overall pattern looked.

This morning's SPC Day 4-8 discussion suggested severe probabilities may need to be expanded northward into the southern Great Lakes.  Would be impressive to get a severe threat this far north in February.

1 hour ago, OHweather said:

You personally didn't cancel anything, but the overwhelming tone was quite negative including from yourself.  I never said you guys should be "grateful" for anything, but was quite surprised by the tone (I just happened to glance and see if anyone got snow last night) given the last two weeks have been quite a bit better than the 6 weeks prior and it's still early, and multiple indices are favorable moving forward.  Like I said in my previous reply I can't tell anyone what they like or don't like...just was surprised at all the pessimism and certainly inquired as to why it's suddenly the feeling here.  If you're going for 40-50" winters every year (and I know you and most who have been around for a while aren't) then sure, this winter won't get there, but there's still plenty of time left for snow and there has been more than dustings of snow recently.  Hopefully you guys get something decent in February and make this all a moot discussion. 

Am following this debate with great interest.  I would say my view is somewhere in between (but probably about 3/4 of the way toward the pessimists).  I probably have less to complain about than the central and southern OH posters (I got about 8” last weekend).  Even with an 8” snowstorm I am only at about 17.5” for the season which is probably near normal – I figure my area averages about 35”.  I think the frustration is that after 4 straight crappy winters this one promised so much more.  In fact there were some so-called experts that mentioned 1977-78 as a possible analog (OK, so one of them might have been JB).  That of course is the holy grail of winters in Ohio.  I never really bought into that idea, having lived through that epic winter I always knew that was probably a once-in-a-lifetime winter,  but still when the experts are throwing that winter out there it’s hard not to get your hopes up a little.

November was encouraging (even though it didn't snow a lot), then the December and 1^st week of January from hell.  I really thought after last weekend’s storm delivered that we had shaken this awful snow funk we’ve been in.  Then we get the snow-devouring rainstorm 3 days later, a modest event that looks to lay down 2-4” across much of Ohio veers up into Michigan at the last minute, now we get a strong hybrid clipper that dives through the Dakotas to Iowa and then signals for a left turn and cuts into Canada.  9 times out of 10 a system like that would bottom out somewhere around the Ohio Valley and then turn up the east coast.  So it’s pretty obvious that we haven’t come out of this crappy run of bad snow luck.

Adding to the aggravation is that everyone seemed to think that a nice run of winter weather was in store for late January into February with multiple opportunities for snow.  Now it looks like we’re going to lose at least a week as the mean trough shifts out west and we go into cutter hell.  I hope you are right about this bad pattern only lasting 5-7 days.  I for one am much more skeptical.  The CFSv2 weeklies are cold all 6 weeks, but all I hear from you guys is how bad the CFSv2 is (if I remember right they were consistently warm all of November).  I don’t have access to the Euro weeklies so I don’t know what they think.  I’ve learned not to take the 240+ hour GFS too seriously, but man, when it keeps showing warm cutters run after run after run, it’s hard not to get a little discouraged.

I don’t think anyone here expects epic winters year in and year out (that only happens in Detroit) but after 4 crap ones and all the encouraging signs, a just OK winter isn’t going to cut it.  I haven’t given up hope yet, but have to admit I’m a lot less optimistic than last week at this time.

16 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Last Friday, the euro depicted CMH receiving 27 inches of snow by tomorrow, (Monday),  with temps in the - teens as well.     The failure and constant stepping back of any and all winter threats has been brutal this season.   

The euro now has us getting a tenth of an inch of snow over the next ten days, (that not qpf, it's snowfall).   That might be the worst 10 day euro snowfall run for us since December.   

The GFS is barely any better, has an inch or two from a clipper on Friday and other than that pretty much pitches a shutout at us over the next 16.  Sure, most of those deep cutters are out in fantasy range, but it looks quite plausible to me.

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

What am I missing? Isn’t most of central/southern Ohio near normal snowfall wise (some a little above, some a little below) with most of that falling in the last two weeks?  The pattern also isn’t exactly warm coming up and it’s not even February 1 yet.  It’s like reading a funeral in here because a surface low over toledo managed to bring sprinkles (it looks like the vast majority of your precip fell as snow with temps at or below feeezing north of Cincinnati and that maybe it briefly sprinkled).  This wasn’t going to be more than an inch or so of snow anyways. 

Right, the rain wasn't that big a deal.  Temps were around 33 and I think it only rained for maybe 45 minutes.  I was just shocked that we saw any rain this far north.  All the models I looked at kept any above freezing temps well south of I-70.

Sure, it was a fairly minor event but Detroit picked up close to 4" out of it and as tough as 4" snowfalls are to come by down here in Ohio, it's pretty disappointing.  Especially when up until about 12Z yesterday that snow was supposed to fall over Ohio.  Really annoying to see systems go out of their way to avoid Ohio.

14 minutes ago, HighTechEE said:

Wow, you know this is one b1+@# of a winter when we're supposed to have 1 or 2 inches of snow (and the 850 0z well south of the Ohio river) and the 2M temps STILL rise into the mid 30s and it rains in the middle of the night! oh well, its OHIO!

Yeah, the rain made it all the way up here to Lake Erie.  That's the last thing I was expecting to see.  Farthest north I saw rain on any model was about the Ohio River.  The WTOD strikes again.

Some surprisingly mild air has reached well north into Ohio with this clipper.  Light rain and 33 degrees at FDY and it looks like more rain than snow here as well.  I don't think there were any models that showed rain getting this far north.

Just walked outside to get the mail and it's downright brutal out there.  Sustained winds probably 30 mph with gusts 40-45 mph.  We have been in between bands of heavier snow for the last couple hours but according to radar better snow is about to move in.  Hard to measure but probably around 2.5" so far here.

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You couldn't draw up a much better Lake Michigan coastal flooding/erosion scenario than the 12z GFS.  Strong low meanders around southeast of the area.  Odds of both things happening (a low that deep and meandering around) aren't great, but otherwise, hopefully somebody can thread the needle.

And then the 12z Euro comes in and pretty much whiffs our subforum to the south.  Not sure where that came from.

ENTRY FORM

APN __76.4"

ORD __44.1"

CLE __ 49.5"

CMH __ 34.7"

DET __ 43.2"

FWA __ 33.2"

GRR __ 65.9"

GRB __ 47.0"

IND __ 31.4"

LSE __ 38.8"

YXU __ 70.1"

SDF __ 24.6"

MQT __ 216.0"

MKE __ 44.7"

MSP __ 53.1"

MLI __45.1"

PAH __ 16.9"

PIA __ 36.3"

STL __ 26.6"

YYZ __ 52.0"

Tiebreakers

1. December 2018 snowfall ORD   3.6"

2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal)   9.4"

3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal)  13.1"

1" of snow here in Erie County.  Biggest snow of the season so far.

Even my area got on the scoreboard this morning with .5".  Didn't expect it.

19 hours ago, NEOH said:

CLE is currently at 6.58" for July.... currently #6 wettest. Could make a run at #5 if we get more rain tonight/tomorrow. 

And then you have TOL at just .30".  Amazing the contrast across 100 or so miles.

Not sure exactly how much I've had but looking at my lawn I'd say I'm closer to TOL than CLE.

Nothing but a few flakes here.  It's amazing how snow goes out of it's way to avoid this area.  Congrats to you guys out east.

5 hours ago, OHweather said:

It was too warm near the lake.  Sat at 33-34.  There have been a couple of marginal events where surface temps have been warmer than modeled.  An inch in Huron is ouch.  Definitely thought there’d be more based on the radar there, and saw a report on Twitter of 5” in Collins (which is much farther inland).  If I’ve learned anything from reading posts from you guys on the lake it’s that I’m never going to get a place right near a body of water if I can help it. 

It actually started out fairly promising with close to an inch falling quickly after the changeover, but then the precip rate slowed and some rain started to mix in and pretty much stayed that way through the rest of the event.  I'm pretty used to these really borderline events not producing in November and early December but it really hurts when it happens near the end of the snow season when the lake should be colder.  I guess it shows how much the warm temperatures the last couple weeks raised the water temperatures.  I think with a mostly frozen lake we would have done a lot better.

2 minutes ago, Trent said:

I thought the west side was finally going to score with this one. Add another 2-3” snowfall to the list. 

You did better than I did.  Just over an inch out my way.  Only a trace left on the ground this morning.

Only a few tenths out here.  Glad to see you guys out east cashing in.

Almost 3" here last night.  Looks like I'm just about in the center of the screw zone for tonight's event.  Hope the models are wrong!

Around 1" here so far but hard to measure with the blowing and drifting.  Looking at radar we should have at least a few more hours of decent snow so hopefully most of us can still pull off a few inches from this. 

Got about 1.3" from the clipper then that band came through about an hour ago and dropped another quick .5".