vpbob21

Looks like I gave up on this a little too soon.  Managed a couple tenths late this afternoon/early evening.

This one underperformed even my low expectations.  I was hoping for a DAB and so far I think I've seen 3 flakes.

I don't know, I think the weaker/SE trend might be a bad thing.  With temps as borderline as they are I would think we would want a more wrapped up system to pull more cold air down to give us a quicker changeover.  Who knows though, 18Z HRRR improved quite a bit so maybe we can luck into a couple inches of cement.

10 minutes ago, OHweather said:

The warnings for that area said 2-4” and you’re gonna get the 2” instead of the 4”…this was never going to produce big snow totals in OH, although the I-71 corridor is looking to be the ones who get luckier in those regards as opposed to NW OH. 

I'm just outside of Columbus for this event.  Looks like I might have lucked into a pretty good spot.

11 hours ago, OHweather said:

I'm setting my local expectations to rain changing to a couple-few inches of wrap-around snow, with 50-60mph wind gusts and a dramatic temperature drop. I feel like that's a safe floor and is still quite a storm, though with fairly modest snow amounts. There's some potential it trends a bit less wrapped-up and east which could up the snowfall some, but given current depictions I would keep snowfall expectations somewhat in check unless we start seeing a solid east trend. My guess is the lake effect quickly becomes a southwest NY thing, as with a very deep low just to our NNE I feel winds would quickly go rather southwesterly as it pulls away. 

I have to laugh a bit when I read the main storm thread and watch posters going apoplectic over every 20 mile shift in the models.  The important thing is that this system is going to be, unless things change dramatically, an absolute monster producing an enormous footprint over the Lakes and northern Ohio Valley.  This is a setup where the oft used sentence from the NHC applies - "do not focus on the actual path of the storm, as effects will be felt far away from the center".  It will probably not matter much whether we get 3 inches or 15 as the winds (which may well be underforecast) will be lifting a tremendous amount of snow.

This afternoon's LOT discussion said it best.  It is for the Chicago CWA but could apply anywhere in the Lakes:

It is also worth stressing that the amount of snow that falls is
a secondary or tertiary concern among the hazards. The expected
temperatures will leave this snow extremely susceptible to blowing
around and even if only a couple inches of snow falls, a blizzard
would still be likely given the nature of the snow and magnitude
of the strong winds.

I would expect a blizzard warning to be needed at least over the northern couple rows of counties (where the combination of wind and snow looks to be most severe) and possibly for the entire CWA.  I hope you guys at CLE continue to hit it hard.  This is looking like a truly life threatening storm.

Got around 2" here.  Pretty impressive to get accumulating snow at the lake shore on April 18th.  It was even sticking to pavement during the heaviest rates.

Got about 3.5" here.  Nice surprise!

31 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Sounds like the worst of it is definitely from Fremont eastward

Over here in Huron, conditions are pretty similar to what Frog Town described, maybe a third of an inch per hour rates with 3/4 - 1 mile vis with S- falling.  Winds are howling out of the NE with 40-45 mph gusts.  Haven't been out but I have to believe the roads are brutal - our county is under a Level 3 snow advisory (meaning non-emergency travel is banned).  A decent storm, sure but a bit disappointing not to get 1" + / hr. rates and 1/2 mile or below visabilities.

Changed over about an hour ago and we are approaching 1 inch already.  It has begun.

It's been painful to watch this front try to come through.  It passed by a couple hours ago and then actually turned around and went back north.  Hopefully it's finally passed us for good now.  Maybe we can get lucky with the second part of the storm tomorrow.

0z ukie was good for pretty much the entire state.

6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I have to imagine those Ohio numbers near the shore are, at least somewhat, lake enhanced.

It would even more crazy if it were 100% synoptic.

Lake Erie is pretty much frozen now (at least the western half) so there shouldn't be much, if any enhancement.  Not sure if the GFS knows that or not.

Wow.  Some really epic 0z model runs.  Still too early to get too invested in it but you sure have to like what the models are showing.

Got just under 4 inches here that got zapped by the thaw today.  Starting over from zero.  Hoping the upcoming clipper pattern produces.

The thing that is concerning to me regarding the GFS is that all the ensemble members are well east of the operational.  Don't know what the operational run is seeing that the ensembles don't but at this point I have to think the operational will cave eventually.  Hope I'm wrong!

UKMET came north a little bit as well.

Looks like European models vs. North American models on the 0z runs.  Hopefully the GFS and CMC trend better on the 12z runs.

Don't give up yet ... we still have the UKMET on our side!

Some really impressive lakeshore flooding around western Lake Erie today.  In my town the flooding is some of the worst I've ever seen.  The weather is so bad even Cedar Point had to close.  I can't imagine how bad this would have been if this had happened last year when the lake levels were higher.

13 hours ago, Speedskater said:

At 8AM, there was 1/4 inch of snow near Lakewood Park.  The overnight temperature never dipped below 35/36°F.

Got nothing here from the main system (all rain) but the squalls this evening gave us .3"

Picked up 3.5" here.  Nice little refresher snow.  Hopefully can squeeze out a few more tenths before it moves out this evening.

Got around 8" here.  Not a bad storm but when nearly every model is showing double digit amounts less than 24 hours out, you can't help but be a little disappointed.  Just couldn't avoid the dry slot.  Seemed like every time snow started to really stack, another dry slot would move in.

0z GFS with another bump NW.  I'm starting to really like where I'm sitting.  Hopefully the rest of the 0z runs trend well.

Since we're piling on to CLE tonight, I have to laugh at how they use the wording "snow showers" rather than just "snow" in their zone forecast.  Man that's one helluva snow shower.  Ever see a snow shower that took in four or five entire states?

18z GFS looks like it bumped slightly NW.