CAPE

Snow lovers in Kentucky are hoping the NAM isn't on to something.

13 hours ago, H2O said:

OMFG. I do live in a snow hell hole. 7.5” and I’m sure I had more hours of sleet/rain than snow. 
 

There’s a reason I don’t remember this storm

That was a great winter overall here, but that storm was a dud. Went from heavy snow to a driving rain like a switch flipped. Had 4" but I don't think there was much left at the end of the day.

20 minutes ago, H2O said:

The unshakable west track as of now is bad for coastal plain. Low level CAD might stick around longer west of the bay but agree that that column will roast quickly and a lot of that “snow” on those maps will be sleet/ice. 
 

This has gone from decent front end to it will do frozen for a little bit

Locations just west/SW of DC are still in a decent spot to get in on the heavier front end precip. Not sure about ice- looks like it would be a quick flip to rain after snow and maybe a brief period of sleet. The LL cold should be scoured out pretty quickly.

Next chance of something looks like late next week with a possible weak wave moving along/ahead of an Arctic boundary. Looks minor at this point, but both the GFS and Euro are hinting at maybe a quick shot of snow.

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I never stop worrying about that

Stop worrying lol. This is shaping up to be a nice WAA driven front end thump for out there.

You root for those because they work there. For eastern areas in these set ups the heavy precip on the front end is almost always too far west, and the screaming LL southerly jet kills the column pretty quickly. I'll take a sloppy inch to pad the solid start from last week, but a lot would have to change for me to have more than a casual interest at this point. 

Not ideal as depicted. The lows and highs are pretty much all in the wrong places up north.

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

More of a risk in a progressive pattern, with no real block to aid in suppressing the track/holding the cold air in place. 

Still time for changes but the ens means are beginning to suggest a more inland track is possible, supportive of the ops. This one may be more wet than white for the lowlands.

High of 25 here.

Currently 17.

Must have been a brief snow shower here overnight. Skiff of snow on the deck and car.

20 currently.

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved.
The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 

For sure but what happens between 72 and 84 hours...only 3 days away seems to have significant bearing for the weekend so we should have a better hande in next day or so

The 2 primary things to watch imo are the speed of the ocean low moving up towards the Maritimes, and timing/location that piece of energy dropping in over the ridge from Canada. Look at the position of that shortwave on the 6z GFS compared to a couple runs ago. It was acting like a kicker and on the latest run there is more spacing between it and the Maritimes low, allowing heights to build to our NE. It tries to partially phase, pulls the coastal further westward and it gains more latitude. Who knows if the GFS has the right idea here but it underscores the uncertainty.

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

We also don't have to necessarily hope cold air is around either.  We should have that already. 

Give me cold in place and I will take my chances. Sure a phased bomb hugging the coast could still wreck it, but I like the odds with moisture moving into an entrenched cold air mass.

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.

Gfs making bold statements in all 3 of our winter storm opportunities

When I say shockingly, ofc I am being facetious. The usual moving parts and still 6 days out. This is far from resolved.

The advertised pattern will continue to present chances. Given how things kicked off last week, I think we may have the 'luck' part working this time. 

Shockingly there remains plenty of uncertainty at this juncture wrt the interplay and timing of the key features. Buckle up weenies.

3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

2009 

Not even close.

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman

@CAPE

You guys remember back in 2015 the week leading into the superbowl in early Feb when there was a northern stream shortwave originally tracking from Indianapolis ESE into our area? We tracked it for about 5 days. Started off with a sweet pass south of us.Very unusual track with suppressive flow. That kept bugging me and sure enough, suppression backed off in the short range and it tracked north of us and destroyed Boston. 

This weekend reminds me of that. I starkly remember thinking to myself back in 2015 that if that type of setup ever shows up again, that shortwave better start off passing pretty far south in the mid range... we'll see...

Eta: that might have been the storm that inspired @Jebman to post the most hilarious rambling rant against Boston that has ever been written. Anywhere. Lol

I went back and dug that up a couple winters ago. Just epic. Instant classic, and maybe the best series of posts ever made here.

45 minutes ago, high risk said:

       To be clear, this isn't a big deal in any way, but it's not a TT issue.     They're using the p-type information directly out of the GFS (and do that for all of the models) and not are computing it on their own.      In lighter precip, the GFS can sometimes overmix the lower levels and warm them up a bit too much, and that appears to be what is happening in that example.

I only commented because I was looking through the panels on WB for that period and the p-type maps there indicate snow at that same time. I mean temps are 34-35 and the precip at that point is light so it really makes no sensible difference, but I have seen ptype 'disagreements' on TT compared to other sources before, so some interpretation probably with marginal surface temps. Imo people rely too much on those maps instead of looking at the temps through the column and qpf.

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not that it matters, but I'm sure that's just an error on the model and the soundings would show snow.

No it doesn't matter, but that is just TT p-type suckage.

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

That prediction is probably correct today I'm anxious to see tomorrow's prediction 

Light rain with temps in the 40s wont take it all, with more cold right on the heels. I just felt like being dramatic and depressing for Ji.

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I don't have a lawn because it snowed TWICE this week 

Tomorrow is gonna wreck my deep winter look, and it may never snow again. 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not true. The cape storm was seen 2 weeks away...by @cape

It was probably closer to 10 days, but we were in a total shit pattern then, and the tendency was to look too far out for something better. Same thing can happen now when we have a more favorable/ colder pattern. Find the warts!

Overall it looks dry, but like Bob said threats often pop up in the mid range, esp in the advertised regime. 

Low of 16. Thought it would be closer to 10 given how well it radiates here with snow cover, but maybe the wind didn't diminish as fast as forecast.

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something 

We have a cold look now, so we are in the game. Without cold in place it rains in my yard 9 times out of 10. The period around MLK day still looks interesting. Beyond that who knows.

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Dark days ahead. Trough is way too far east. Too many competing shortwaves. Too much dominant northern stream. Phasing not in sync. Result: depressing model runs and waste of cold

The advertised pattern in the LR is generally a cold and dry look on the means. Spilt flow with a hint of a southern stream underneath the ridge out west, but it looks suppressed with the southward displacement of the TPV.

1/3/22- 9.5"

1/7/22- 3.2"

Total:  12.7"