40/70 Benchmark

I think most of us are pointing out the relationship between solar cycle and total ACE.

Goes along with the theme of a stronger cool ENSO than implied by ONI and a potent N stream.

I would be careful about getting to wrapped up in the Modoki index this season because the intensity of La Nina all things considered will be moderate at best. Theoretically speaking, it could be superceded by other extra tropical factors.

I don't know what a PMM is, but I'm sure a -PMM must be bad for east coast winter weather.

The older 500mb analog composites are pretty useless when derived from 1991-2020 climo because the whole map is blue.

Probably....I won't even look until this weekend if it still looks compelling.

I never explicitly said that I felt like it would have changed anything post 2015, but I probably should have elaborated since I did use some strong verbiage. All I meant was exactly what I said......we may never see a below average season again using 1961-1990 climo. As far as minimizing the warming trend....technically it does, but I feel as though the warming is tacit. Interesting you say that though because this is why I like to use the 1951-2010 climo period when doing seasonal stuff to normalize/standardize that.

Not totally unrealistic....I mentioned late last week that I could see something getting pulled N over Cuba and posing a threat. But talk to me this weekend. The main inhibiting factor is lead time.

I never suggested that it did. I'm not sure what the issue is, unless you are trying to argue that finishing colder than 1961-1990 climo isn't a taller task than it is for 1991-2020? I understand that nothing changes the fact that its been getting warmer...don't worry, no one is stealing your CC. All I meant was moving forward we should be measuring against recent climo given CC...I wasn't insinuating that it would alter the ranking of the past 9 years.

I really don't think it matters this season whether we have peaked or not. When considering the pervceived favorable period near the turn of the decade, I would like to peak ASAP to get that descending solar window out of the way.

Frustrating that they have't updated yet to include August in the composites. https://psl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

Well, I think its silly to go by 1961-1990 baseline....no one would ever be below average. I won't be shocked if Canada is below by 1991-2020 climo.

Yea, I see the parallel, but I don't expect as hostile a polar domain this cold season for a variety of different reasons.

TBH, it would make sense to me if there were multiple factors at play inhibiting this season because its been a complete no-show, especially relative to expectation.

Yea, I am not debating that CC may be at play as well given the ITCZ shift, but it would be folly to dismiss the solar relationship. Its very strong and clear as day.

CC.

I really don't think it matters. There is plenty of time for recovery prior to winter...look at 2006....huge NAO block that fall.

Why is an AO drop in September a good sign for the winter?

The MEI is probably going to register too low to be a viable proxy for intensity of thus La Niña event... just as it did with respect to El Niño, last year. RONI is probably the way to go....moderate.

I have never expected an east-based event....however, the weaker the ENSO, the less important EMI is....2000 and 2008 were both pretty far west. Obviously 2000 is way off with the extra tropical Pacific, but 2008 may not be an awful analog.

Ever since snowman concluded that cool neutral could result in an even warmer winter for the east he has been pushing that narrative lol

Yea, agreed on seasonal models...just interesting when they align with early thoughts.

I think the best bet for a big NE hit is one developing around the Bahamas, anyway....CV systems are such a crapshoot.

Raindance, your blend looks an awful lot like the CFS.