40/70 Benchmark

Thanks for the great info, raindance, as always. 2004 and 2014 are two modokis I do not mind mirroring.

Care to elaborate? Are you implying that the ocean and atmosphere are poorly coupled like last year?

Great job. Although last winter was actually pretty snowy across NNE.

Raindance, I have garnered alot of respect for your methodology over the past year, but I'm a bit confounded as to how you interpret a weak el nino as an unfavorable development for NE winter. I get that you weigh solar very heavily, but betting against NE winter in a weak modoki el nino, if that does indeed materialize, is a risky proposition. We'll see...maybe you will nail it. You certainly know your stuff. Anyway, four of the six seasons that you mentioned featured above average snowfall in Boston...of course, 1994 and 2018 were awful. 2007 was epic in CNE and NNE. 2004 was epic in the Boston area, 2009 epic in mid atl. 1994 is actually good ENSO match, but its going to fall out of favor if the eastern ENSO regions don't spike a great deal this month.

Yea, I never understood why some were dismissing chances for weak el nino with region 4 being so warm.

Yea, bares watching....I have not written el nino off. And the modoki rating can change swiftly, as we saw last year.

Its probably not going to be an el nino at all, but the surface and subsurface warmth is definitely biased west.

2012 ended up being a fine winter out here.

I'm not opposed to a relatively mild December and I still definitely favor a warm-neutral ENSO. My point was I don't think the ship has entirely sailed on a marginal el nino. As far as the sst anomalies go, a +.55C in 1950 is means the same thing in 2019...sure, overall temps are warming, but anomalies are relative.

3 of your 6 best ENSO matches went on to become el nino events. Interesting that you link mild Decembers in east to warm region 4. When region 4 is above +0.5c in latter September as it was this season, the odds are very high for el nino since 1990. I listed the data set in my blog. Full of strong Ninos, and weak ones that were cold in the east, save for 1994.

1969-70 has been high on my list all fall.

Some thoughts I had on ENSO....looks modoki to me at the moment....but last season is fresh in my mind. Very open to alternative lines of thinking. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/10/enso-update-pathway-remains-for-modest.html Of course, the elephant in the room is that the most likely outcome is probably neutral, but I am not ready to discount the shot of a last moment, meager el nino.

This tropical season reminds me of last winter....ton of activity and looks fine from afar, but few systems took a favorable track. 1995 like.

Why do you think that would be terrible for the west? Volatile NAO should yield a stormy look.

Weak el nino.

Yea, def. looking more neutral...which side is debatable. Gotta be careful with the subsurface becuase it doesn't always continue to translate to the surface, especially with negative SOI maybe keeping rosby waves in check. I've caught myself snickering at IRI before, but they usually end up more correct than we are.

I really don't think warm neutral is insane, but we'll see. I'm certainly betting against a classified la nina.

I'd quite frankly be stunned if la nina materialized.

Its epic here...now watch, he'll spit the bit after nailing the terd last season. Lol

I would not be at all upset with a blend of 1992-1993 and 2004-2005 for winter.

I was very skeptical, but he did well last season. Still not my preferred methodology, but he def. has my attention this season.

Yea, big -EPO and ENSO strength is about all I had right last season.

Thanks for the clarification. Maybe I am wrong, but I did not see the issue, at least not predominately, as a 2001-2002 type relentless PAC firehose that eradicates N America of cold, last year. We had plenty of cold, but in the absence of a pos PDO, the cold dumped west, and with no Atl blocking, there was nothing to hold it and prevent storms from displacing it.

Thanks for the clarification.

What does this have to do with episodes of PNA during boreal winter?