40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Winter 20-21 Discussion
40/70 Benchmark replied to griteater's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You don't have an issue with the fact that half of your analogue seasons are opposite ENSO state? Of course, that doesn't mean they can't end up similar sensible weather wise..... I would assume that you expect the Aleutian ridge to be flat, then? -
I don't understand just selecting four random seasons because they are +NAO/AO. Not to say that this winter can not be very mild with a +NAO and flat Aleutian ridge, but that approach just seems lackadaisical and unscientific to me. Then again, I guess the analogs used to to derive the composite do not matter if accurately reflects how you feel the season will play out.
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Winter 20-21 Discussion
40/70 Benchmark replied to griteater's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its not the only factor, but you mean to say that you see very little commonality between like ENSO states of similar intensity? -
I would watch for a lull period this season, though likely warmer.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yes, I did say that...along with Will. I never laid my thoughts out, though. Big difference between the two winters was the NAO. -
I do think it sets up, but will not persist all season.
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Its important to note that although I do value it as an analog, I do not expect the entirety of the season to transpire exactly like that. I know that you know this. I will explain how that season will be representative of the overall pattern and when.
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Interesting- I would say 1999-2000 is the best QBO match of the 3....1970 and 2007 were very negative QBO.
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One of the best analogs IMO.....volatility should be a central theme this season.
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62.1 at home.
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That would eclipse 1996 and 2015.
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A month ago, I thought it was quickly going to go central based, however, the east has remained cold due to the easterlies migrating out that way....we may have caught a break in that regard.
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You are correct. Very important point that some are missing. And there is a difference. This is going to a central theme of my outlook...my composites are all done, and I'm just starting the narrative portion.
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"In an early morning email exchange with a highly regarded local met, he opined that I maintain a distance of at least 100', but my heart dissented. The correction vector protruding towards her, my Hadley Cell burgeoned with great rapidity. The next thing I knew, the geopotential medium compressed as the cell door slammed shut-
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He is fixated on Fox Hall....my guess is that was the last Christine "encounter" prior to issuance of the restraining order.
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Yes. I pulled a Kevin/Tip.
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June 2002 takes the cake for me.
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That is more sw end of town....I would think the part bordering Groveland and Boxford to the se would be worst...
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Only if you flip the calendar to 2002.
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Must just be a steeper gradient than I had suspected. I have noted since moving here two years ago that the CF often stops at Haverhill, so that makes sense, actually.
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Yes, I was surprised how low they were bc looking at the data, it seems pretty legit. I know I have told you in the past that I figured around 90" here.
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@ORH_wxman Best I can gather is that my current spot probably had around 80" in 2007-08. Groveland, which is just se of Haverhill and seems like a reliable station, had 77.4". Jive with your map?
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He probably had about the same in 70-71.
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The only slam-dunk limiting factors that I see are: 1) La nina will be moderate, not weak 2) La nina is basin wide, and has not remained relegated to the east basin. 3) QBO is positive. None of those are death knells.
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What did he get that year? Like 53"?
