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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not doubting that. I am just speaking to my interpretation of CNE, which ORH is not. Doesn't matter, anyway because trend is likely not done.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....expect this to be the theme of December. People are expecting 50's and driving rains wondering what happened once a winter storm is imminent.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Latitude > elevation this weekend.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    CNE implies N of ORH to me....I take that as Bershires through Monadkocks and SNH.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have some hope for March, but I am not crazy about the big JFM idea.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are exceptions...but odds are against it, especially with a moderate to strong peak.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    BS IMO.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is exactly the window that I mentioned to kick things off in the outlook. All you need is the cold in Canada...I would be surprised if at least a couple of them do not work out over the course of the next 2-3 weeks.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neither is east...its been a central season in the early going. I expect to begin making up ground rather shortly...I think it's a good pattern for my area.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure Steve will be all over it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a similar outcome here.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking the same thing.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can tell you that it was low level temps IMBY....may have been overcome due to greater evap cooling had lift been in SGZ, and we had better dendrites, but that was not the case......so we rotted between 33.8 and 34.0 during bulk of heavy precip.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly...and as I said to John, it was struggling to accumulate all afternoon in that area.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly my point....even before the precip abated, I was not accumulating efficiently.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was both.....sure, precip cutoff early in the evening, but it had been accumulating like shit all afternoon, despite heavy fall rates.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....hence the "backlash" member of the fraud five. Bruce Showegler never did manage to wrap his mind around this over the course of a very esteemed 33 year career as an OCM.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my take is that the lift being JUST below the SGZ was fatal given how marginal the low level thermal envt. was.....we needed optimal dendrite production in order to offset that and we did not get it. The heavy fall rates in and of themselves were not enough...we also needed perfect growth.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was east-based....its becoming central at this point. Agreed.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hi Dave, glad to see you back. The SSW still seems like mostly conjecture at a this point, and I think relying on a dramatic weakening of ENSO as the primary driver for a big second half is always risky...especially in a la nina, which usually do not have big endings in the east.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me. I had Philly in the 11-21" range this season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Obviously...I just mean that it will melt slowly relative to your average 2" snow pack.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    What we know is the odds of a whiff are pretty low with a pattern like this, so its all about having enough cold in the bank, which we should. This doesn't mean that it will be pretty, and it may involve some advisory 2-5" stuff to ice and rain, but its still snow.
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