40/70 Benchmark

Well, its certainly not wrong, as major airports do it. Again, snow removal crews are concerned with snowfall, not total depth. I've said before, they aren't waiting 2 days to clear a 40" snowfall so that they can have the luxury of tackling the lesser 35" storm depth.

You aren't getting snow this wknd.

I guess what irritates me most about the SSW is that there is far too much hype around it considering the level of uncertainty. Everybody wants to cyber-spank it to pretty pictures of the temperature at 63,347 feet up, but no one wants to be accountable when nothing happens at the surface. I'm sorry, but if you forecast a severe NE winter (this is a general statement, not directed at anyone) and a SSW occurs that has relatively little impact at the surface, then your forecast is still a failure. Anyone who can't handle that probably shouldn't engage in seasonal forecasting.

I'm mainly waiting on the N stream mid month. It needs to be a very special system for me to get pumped up for a s streamer....its always just a matter of how many limiting factors there are with those because there is always at least one.

I've been out on the wknd, and not invested in Tuesday. I don't see any serious threats yet...just waiting, as the novelty of the SSW hype has run its course for me.

Once the N stream becomes a more prominent player, that can yield big tickets with relatively short notice.

The was Monday AM before he made a point to harp on this via the disclaimer in his blog lol

That wasn't declarative, it was hypothetical.

Exactly.

You can appreciate the fact that a call for a SSW was correct, while also acknowledging that it did not result in a severe winter in the ne US.

There is a difference between not understanding, and just not caring if there are little in the way of sensible results.

LOL I reminded him of that on twitter Monday AM, and I think he really got spooked

We may need to break this out in about ten days.

Tenth and tenths of inches.

+.5" 18.5" on the season.

Harvey. OES is what I mean by CJ.

Norwell already has an inch....maybe bit of CJ assist?

Everything is coated here....steady S-

Yea, no one except Tom saw that PNA in Dec coming....that destroyed my national Dec temp forecast....like 180 opposite lol It still worked out locally bc I hit on the NAO.

I buy interludes of PNA in the second half....always expected that. I think the atlantic and AK area are larger questions.

My guess is that if February breaks well for us, it will be a PNA working in conjunction with a protracted NAO due to a very successful and fully propagated SSW.

In terms of a spark plug, yes....but the NAO helps to lock in the cold and ensure a favorable track.

Well stated.

Yes. Like I said yesterday, there is certainly value to be garnered from your forecast, regardless of the precise sensible outcome.

I meant in the hypothetical sense that you are indeed simply calling for a January 2011 caliber HECS, as Luke stated. I think you have an outside shot at that type of period....lets see what happens. I'm still betting against it, but a HECS would not shock me given the modeled pattern.