40/70 Benchmark

Weak la nina is easier to pull off a good Feb for sure.

I'll bet at least two of those were the worst DJF months of the respective seasons, though. I know 1996 was....not sure about 2001.

I honestly thought we would squeeze out one more moderate event this month after the mid month deal. The second half of the month was pretty disappointing.

He doesn't count....its like a vote of confidence for cold and snow from @MJO812

My last two were awful...I said it lol. Keep in mind....go back and look at modeling when I started the December thread. Anyway, its just a conversation starter when I post those to start threads....more for posterity.

Anyway, this is the December thread....I don't want to monopolize it with talk of my outlook. I didn't bring it up.

You can say that about anything.

Its not like I don't acknowledge when it fails.....believe me, I will be the first to post that its wrong if Feb looks great.

Were you in a coma the past two seasons? I completely bailed by February on both. I haven't seen a reason to deviate yet. All i missed was the PNA instead of RNA in December.

Odds are at least one major storm in January will work out...I'm not calling for a January shut out. I just feel like we underachieved in December a little bit, and need to try to make up for it in January. Name all of the great la nina Februarys......short list.

Please elaborate...thanks.

I never once panicked about December, even before guidance supported a neg NAO.

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux. Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

I can't stand when someone counters your frustration with information that has nothing to do with your backyard. "Why are you so angry, everywhere where you don't live has double climo snowfall".

Great point.

My snow cover was one week. The month has been fine...nothing that will stand out in my memory, aside from a clinic in how to NOT run an NAO.

I mentioned this yeserday....that is the smoking gun for how the SSW politics can still claim victory without you getting your snow.

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

May as well be 80, at this point.

December worked out okay, except for the fact that it was PNA and not RNA....this caused the se and se to flip anomalies from what was forecast. Most of the forecast for January still appears valid...trends for less "blocking" and perhaps more PNA intervals again as the month progresses. The lower heights towards AK have already began materializing, but the N ATL ridding has not yet began to abate. I would look for signs of that in longer range guidance as the New Year approaches. January 2021 Outlook January Forecast H5 Composite: The active winter pattern may carry over into the first week or so of January, or it may not. This is nebulous, but what is clear is that any residual positive height anomalies should vacate the higher latitudes, as lower heights retrograde towards Alaska. The structure and character of la nina begins to assume a more modoki state, as it peaks and begins to decay. The Aleutian ridge relocates to the southeast, away from Alaska. Heights near the pole should not be exceeding low, nor the temperature departures extremely high like January 20202. But nevertheless, the pattern grows relatively hostile to sustained wintery interludes in the east. January Forecast Temperature Composite: Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes. January Forecast Precipitation Composite: A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.

Another damaging wind? Where is all of today's damage? Aside from the snowpack, which is the only damage I have seen.

Well, I think that is what you're going to get IMO, so make the best of it. I'm open to anything since everything has porked me.

Good news is that it should die out over the next month. Give me la nina gradient over this shit.

I follow him on Twitter... he is around.