40/70 Benchmark

Pretty spectacular phasing over the maritimes on the long range GFS at like day 11 (lol)....too bad that PV node is so lethargic in joining the fray. Little less energy out west may expedite that.

IDK, I think his hairline checked out at the first sign of puberty

Just washed mine yesterday....was thinking the same.

They are just tools, you shouldn't base a forecast entirely off them, or we wouldn't even need mets.

Don't you see the better pattern!?!??!

Wolfie growls, ice drinks....the sun comes up, it hits 40...rinse, repeat-

At least you had something to soak up the suds lol

Looks like the booze is downwelling into the esophagus and propagating into the bloodstream. Sudden Alcholic Warming

It totally can over the last 10 days or so. I have been arguing against Jan 2011, but a respectable snowfall total would not shock me in the least.

He's probably laying low until it snows, so he can bump the 15 quotes that he has lined up on stand by lol

1/10, unless you live in Vegas or LA. Oh, Jan is still fair game...didn't mean to imply I was punting it. Just saying....seems like time table is moving back a bit, though.

What makes me nervous about my call for Feb is that not only are we having the SSW, but we are due for meg NAO time.....on the other hand, what I weighted in favoring a PV recovery is the +QBO. Seems as though it has peaked early, though, like it did in 2011....so we will need to watch that. Didn't help latter portion of that season, but there wasn't a SSW, either.

LC is bullish on Feb....be interesting to see how it pans out....Tom and I in one camp, LC and DT in the other. Someone will have to "deal with it" lol Gonna need the SSW to save Feb.

Open auditions for the AMWX melt HOF...

I salute you.

Just need to downwell into the delorean and propegate back to 1978.

SSTs down, sun angle up....lol

The problem right now is not a se ridge.

No problem. Hopefully that GEFS solution is more accurate, but my guess is the end result will be more tempered.

Nah, mid December was noted in the outlook for the original favorable period, which worked out. But due to some bad luck with the NAO block being a bit displaced to the south, it didn't last as long as I had thought. For January, I implied a relatively quiet stretch, with near normal to slightly above normal attempts, and mixed events. I actually mentioned in the write up that I felt as though there would be a propensity for the NAO blocking to be biased east, so pretty close.

Okay, I am going to temper my visceral reaction and give you the benefit of the doubt, assuming that you would like to learn, and perhaps your emotions are handicapping your reading comprehension a bit. The tweet indicates that the GEFS have better ridging over AK, and a more classic NAO, which is why it has a colder pattern over N America. Since ridging over AK helps to facilitate the delivery of cold into the CONUS, and the NAO helps to hold it while modulating the storm track in a favorable manner, THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FANS OF WINTER WEATHER. That is all I meant by favorable....NOT that any guidance is favored over the other. However, I did imply that I would rather have the EPS depicting the more favorable outcome for snow and cold, since it is the more skilled guidance. I am really trying not to lose my patience here, and I think this is my final attempt.

Funny thing is, aside from the PNA, which I blew this season, this January has really validated my outlook....but it's just so tough to take. Very mundane...

You must be illiterate. I said it indicates that the GEFS is MORE FAVORABLE....ie for a wintry outcome, NOT favored. Your posts are consistently meteorologically vapid and idiotic.

I already had my melt....early this AM. I should start to re consolidate and regain control of my emotions.

Can you read? The tweet indicates that the GEFS is more favorable. It says GEFS have more ridging over AK, a more classic NAO and is thus colder over N America. It's clear that the GEFS is more favorable, regardless of what actually verifies.