mitchnick

Not all, but my recollection, selective maybe, is that max AN temps often occur with a heat wave in June in Niñas then not so AN the rest of the summer. I guess we'll see if my memory is tainted with a wishcast.

That's cheating!

It's miserable, typical BWI weather up here 72dp. Just mowed the grass like a true idiot, but gotta' stay in shape for snow shoveling in the upcoming BIG winter!

Cfs2 pretty consistent (2+ weeks) with around normal temps to below in the east for the rest of the summer, with at or above rainfall. Basically, a continuation of what we've been seeing. This is fairly different from recent summers, so I wonder whether it's a "hint" for a change in the winter Niña winter pattern.

If we get a normal/cool, wet summer, that sure is different from any summer in years. Hopefully, that means a better winter. P.s. Sorry Voyager

Just posted in the MA forum and that's what the Cfs2 is showing. It's been showing it since late May too.

Don't know if anyone bothers to look at it much, but the Cfs2 has been advertising a non-hot summer for weeks insisting on a trough in the east. I know the Cfs2's track record has been sketchy, but it's been showing this since late May, so it deserves some credence. Add to that June temps to date, and I'd give it the benefit of the doubt at this point. This is a link to July temps and beyond. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025061218&fh=1 P.s. it's showing a wet July and August too.

There are plenty of examples. But generally speaking going back to the late 70's, progged snowstorms for the MA >24 hours out end up north. So that hasn't changed in all the years I've been following winter wx down here. 3/01 is the quintessential example.

Tell me you didn't just use 360 hr snowfall forecasts from operational models to try to prove your point. Please!

Looks like it did last year. https://solen.info/solar/index.html

I'm away from the coast and 50 miles north of my former BWI location, and they did much better in these parts in 93/94. Unfortunately, the change in location has not replaced the hair loss!

Neutral Enso looks in the bag at this point, even though I know there's no such thing in weather. Which end of neutral is the question yet to be answered. Either way, RONI will probably be on the Niña neutral end, if not weak Niña territory methinks.

Not the case for BWI at all those years unfortunately. 93/94 was the worst. Horrendous.

I agree 100% models are too snowy. I've been an unapologetic snow lover all my life and started following snow threats religiously since the 72/73 winter. Since then when modeling was first being used as a tool, they have ALWAYS been too snowy beyond 24 hours. I can remember complaining to a friend in high school (before 1976) that the model forecasts were too snowy. My point is, modeling has always been too snowy outside of 24 hours for a variety of reasons and to use recent years' snowy +24 hours modeling errors as proof of anything is a mistake imho.

Meant to ask, can you post November? I'd like to see if there were any trends as weak as it may be. Thanks.