RU848789

As of 8 am, it's snowing moderately with 0.5" on the ground and it's 33F, but still accumulating with decent rates, even on the driveway and sidewalks - not as much on the roads in front of the house.

75" is over 6 feet!

Nice band over us the past 15 minutes; looks good for the next 30 min, at least...

Woke up around 6:30 am to light snow and as of 7:00 am it's 32F and we have about 3/8" of snow on all surfaces, so it's a little slick out there, especially on sidewalks and driveways. Snowing lightly and radar looks fairly weak/disorganized right now, so if we don't get some more snow soon, accumulations will suffer with later snowfall, as temps will likely be up to 33-34F by 9 am.

The Euro and AIFS both look great! Most of the snow falls from 7 pm Friday to 7 am Sat. Just about every model is on board, but we're still 4 days away and much can still change...but I like where we are right now.

Today was disc golf, shopping, tree decorating and dinner with our son and his wife then our biweekly poker night, so just getting back to looking at things. Will go with 1" in Metuchen, since the model consensus is more than the 0.5" the NWS gives me, and it just feels like things are trending better right before the storm, which I always like to see (like 12/14 and unlike most storms the last 4 winters). Let's go!

Further improvement on the AIFS...I think most would take this and run, especially along 95.

12Z NAM12km, NAM3km, FV3 and RGEM all show 1" or more along and N of 78, including for NYC. We might get an overperformer if we're lucky.

Nice NWS-Philly discussion of the possible 12/26 event. Would love to score a "surprise" snowfall on Friday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs, however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the forecast for the Friday timeframe.

Nice NWS-Philly discussion of the possible 12/26 event. Would love to score a "surprise" snowfall on Friday. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 546 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025 Beyond Christmas Day, forecast uncertainty becomes very high. Guidance indicates there will be a high over eastern or southeastern Canada with low pressure moving eastward across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast or Mid Atlantic. This setup will likely bring precipitation to our area. The 00Z suite of guidance had a significant change in course, indicating a much stronger high and weaker, more suppressed low. This solution would introduce potential for wintry precip for our region and much colder temperatures, quite the change from widespread 50s and rain from before. The shift in guidance was consistent between different models. GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all showing this much colder, wintry solution now, however given this *very* recent change in course, have stuck with NBM for now until there is more consistency in a colder, more wintry solution. Precipitation is still likely, with 50-80% PoPs, however we could be dealing with all rain, a significant wintry system, or anything in between. Remain alert for changes to the forecast for the Friday timeframe.

Understood, was just hoping such outliers wouldn't be in the snowfall maps you guys generate. Speaking of the PNS's I get while there are "partial" reports before the end of a storm when the storm is still going on, but I always wondered why the partial reports are usually still in the final PNA 12-24 hours after the event is over. For example, with Sunday's storm, there are partial reports from 6 or 7 am, when the storm wasn't over for the vast majority of people in our area until 9-10 am. Why not take these out? By the way, these are minor nitpicks. As I've posted earlier, thought you guys did a great job with this storm and much better than many other media sources, especially in going with 3-5" amounts along 95 and even up through 78 (and saying the most would likely be between 95 and the coast) when many kept with their 1-3" predictions for those areas.

Posted this on the NYC subforum and a NWS met said they took the Metuchen 8.7" measurement out, but I see it's still in the NWS-Philly's map, so figured I'd post it here. Speaking of inflated measurements, someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7". There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4" so I can't imagine how someone got 8.7" - and Metuchen is only 1 square mile, so it's not like there is some gradient across town. ...Middlesex County... Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

You're welcome - glad the info was helpful. I'm kind of a nut about measuring accurately.

Speaking of inflated measurements, someone else in Metuchen reported 8.7" vs. my report of 6.7". There's simply no way that's right, as it's an outlier vs. all other county reports (especially when, generally, more snow fell in southern Middlesex than northern) and it's a huge outlier vs. the nearby Edison reports (6.6" and 5.6") and my report of 6.7". Even when I measured on grass, the most I saw was about 7.4" so I can't imagine how someone got 8.7" - and Metuchen is only 1 square mile, so it's not like there is some gradient across town. ...Middlesex County... Metuchen 8.7 in 0945 AM 12/14 Public Plainsboro Township 8.0 in 1100 AM 12/14 Public Cranbury 7.3 in 1045 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick Twp 7.0 in 1045 AM 12/14 COCORAHS Edison 6.6 in 1045 AM 12/14 Newspaper North Brunswick Twp 1.5 W 6.6 in 0426 PM 12/14 COCORAHS Parlin 6.4 in 0100 PM 12/14 Trained Spotter East Brunswick 6.2 in 1100 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Sayreville 6.0 in 1135 AM 12/14 Public South River 5.8 in 1119 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter Edison 5.6 in 1145 AM 12/14 Trained Spotter

Another good map below. I thought the NWS forecast was pretty good, comparing the final NWS snowfall forecast map from about 3 pm Saturday (time stamp says 10 pm, but that's just the one I grabbed at the time) to the actual snowfall map. IMO, that's a pretty good forecast. It had the maximum amounts along 95 and in south/central interior NJ and eastern LI right (even if a bit under-forecast) and had lesser amounts for far SENJ right, but it was a fair amount under for areas N of 78 and especially for Sussex/Poconos/Hudson Valley; however, they at least had 2-4" amounts for those NW/N areas unlike many other forecasters who had them around 1" or so and even had the 95 corridor at only 1-3". In the big picture, the take home message was a moderate (2-4") to perhaps significant (4-8") snowstorm for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region and that's what we got.