ORH_wxman

I don’t have fancy camera pics like some here but it was incredible. Went up to my cousin’s in south Burlington to see it. Got this cell phone pic on Megan’s phone (my phone camera is worse than hers) Problem with the cell phone pics is that even a sliver of light around the edges gets dispersed out on the picture to make it look a lot brighter and thicker than it is.

Might be some stuff that rotates down overnight depending on which model to believe.

5.5” on winter hill in ORH.

Sleet is in Holliston. I’ll report form winter hill at some pint probably.

Starting to get scalped here. Pinging picked up big time in the past 10 min

Yes. I think the western ULL ended up overpowering some of the height bulges out to the east that we were seeing yesterday on some runs. It’s a bit less prominent today so it’s taking longer for the storm to turn the mid-level winds easterly…and as you said, pretty hard to get monster totals when you are relying too much on WAA precip. Someone a little further north may benefit more though. I wouldn’t mind being near my summer vacation spot on Moose Pond in Denmark for this one. Pleasant Mountain FTW

The H7 warm front lifts north relatively quickly once it gets established over SNE. Some of the better runs yesterday we’re trying to stall it for a few hours which is how you get 20-burgers there but that seems unlikely now as it doesn’t slow down until near S ME/NH border. But yeah, if you can flash to parachutes by 03-04z, then you’ll have a path to warning criteria snow.

Trying to flip the pike region to snow around 06-07z. Warm layer really tries to wash out. I’m skeptical but big lift can do the trick sometimes. Esp if it’s in the DGZ where it will enhance latent cooling.

NAM had a much higher area of 2”+ QPF over maine and SE NH and far NE MA. Euro had a small bullseye. They weren’t too dissimilar further west though.

It’s been that way for several runs now for the most part since yesterday. Might be a red flag. But it basically has no agreement from other guidance.

They run it off Ray’s computer.

I think I’d hedge mostly sleet there based on guidance trends overnight. It’ll change to snow but I think the meat of the QPF is going to be a lot of sleet and mixed crud.

18z Euro seems kind of flaccid on QPF compared to other guidance. Really nothing over about an inch and a half for the frozen zones with lots of 1.2ish totals.

Yeah and I think we’ll have a decent idea by tomorrow afternoon if it’s likely or not. I am assuming the differences in model guidance right now will try to converge a little more…or we’ll either see one last bump south or north in these next couple cycles. If it bumps south, then it’s easily game-on for you, if it bumps north, game over. Status quo? You might be nowcasting.

18z GFS is just bonkers between 06z and 12z for extreme NE MA and SE NH. Like 3 hourly QPF of around an inch between 06z and 09z in Essex county and Rockingham county. That’s one way to overcome elevation deficiency.