eduggs

Now using facts, the scientific method, and reason are "leftist?" When did that happen?

Agree with Walt D. about the possibility of first flakes in the 11/10 - 11/12 period. The GFS, EC, CMC, and ICON show a few different possible scenarios to achieve it. Parts of the mid-Atl may even be favored to get flakes before us. There should be some steep lapse rates and hopefully snow showers if an ULL swings through (ECM/ICON) and/or in the cold northwest flow that develops behind the rain event (GFS).

Yeah. And I wouldn't ever expect wall to wall cold in November. The mean jet is historically to our north and its undulations deliver alternating cool and warm shots. But in a warming climate regime, I'm happy for every seasonal cold shot we get.

Inter-model guidance still showing a nice cool shot around Nov. 10-12. We'll see if it holds.

Most snow lovers want snow whenever they can get it. Winter-season snow sticks around longer and holiday snow enhances the season. So we'd choose those scenarios if given a trade option. But it doesn't work that way. Any apparent correlation between early season snow and winter snow is likely coincidental and skewed by a small sample size.

I agree that a wintry coastal storm is unlikely. But I think your MSLP graphic at 198hrs is misleading. First, it's a snapshot in time at long range. And second, at first glance the color schemes resemble height anomalies, which is confusing. The ensemble averaging effect almost always produces noticeable differences between an individual operational run and its ensemble average at that time range. But to my eye, the op and ensembles are in reasonably good agreement with some kind of cold wave centered around the 10th. To argue otherwise seems somewhat disingenuous. But if the intent is to merely downplay the likelihood of accumulating snow from a coastal storm at the coast, I completely agree. But I don't think you need to label the op run as an outlier to make that point. The 1009mb off the Delaarva at 192hr on the 12z GFS is 12 hours earlier than a cluster of SLPs associated with the shortwave on the individual ensembles. But the broad representation is consistent.

With respect to the GFS op vs. the GEFS... it's mostly a timing issue. The op is has a higher amplitude trof with a deeper SLP and slower progression. Such a difference is typical at that time range. That's why we generally disregard specific local weather outcomes at that range. But the signal and progression of the GFS op is similar to its ensembles.

The EC-AI is cold in the long range... probably too cold. 1000-500mb thicknesses are near or below 540dm from Nov 9 through the end of the run. They bottom out near 510dm! The GFS, CMC, and their ensembles have a solid cold "signal" too. Nothing historic or severe... but definitely wintry-precip-supporting cold. I feel like these modeled cold snaps usually moderate in time. I'm be curious to see how well it holds through the coming week.

ICON has the Nov 10 threat too. I will almost always "sell" a wintry threat near the coast this early in the season unless it's modeled in the short term. But what I'm happy to see on guidance is maybe the first decent Canadian-cold delivery of the early season. If wave timing is ideal, it's the kind of scenario that could whiten elevated NEPA, southern tier of NY, Catskills, Berks etc.

EPS, GEFS, and GEPS all have a semblance of a wintry threat centered on November 10, plus or minus a day. It's been there for a few cycles now. All the usual caveats apply. Far inland, elevated spots look to have a decent chance of flakes over the next 10 days or so. That seems fairly consistent with historical norms.

I think there's an issue regarding how "major flooding" is defined. If a road is inundated that doesn't normally flood, it's hard not to describe that as major flooding. But that doesn't necessarily match up with USGS statistical data and graphics. Although I'm not sure how minor, moderate, and major coastal flooding are defined.

From what I can see from the hydrological stations in and around new york harbor, this afternoon's high tide has crested slightly below yesterday's predictions. That's a good thing for people on the immediate shoreline, but there's still widespread minor to isolated moderate coastal flooding ongoing.

This storm unfortunately didn't quite bust the drought west of 287. The surface is moist from days of drizzle, but the (subsurface) soil moisture is still low.

The precipitation gradient or "cut-off" is oriented almost perfectly north to south across our area. It's a little more common to have more of a southwest to northeast orientation to the gradient.

That buoy is like 50 miles offshore.