chubbs

This year is #2 in sea ice volume at the start of the melt season, beyond 2017 another post nino year. Will need favorable weather, like 2017, to avoid a low September minimum.

Long-term temperature trends in the US are very well determined. There are thousands of stations and well proven methods for detecting non-weather-related station changes, heat islands, etc. 1970 was the only start date I had. Yes, warming would be a little less starting from 1950; but, warming would be even larger starting in 1900. Doubt the starting date would have much impact on the relative stance of the midwest, which is the point I was addressing.

Yes the NE coast and parts of the upper midwest have had increased snow since 1970. That's consistent with the paper I posted upthread (relinked below and added a second). As expected the snowfall signal is emerging much slower than the temperature signal due to offsetting precipitation and temperature effects and natural variability. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/20/jcli-d-12-00832.1.xml https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1029/2018GL079820

We've discussed the problem with comparing city and airport obs in Detroit and Chicago before. Need to maintain consistency or remove station changes to isolate the long-term climate trend. Winter warming has been uniform across the eastern US. If anything warming increases slightly from south to north. The fastest warming is in the upper midwest and northern New England. The warming map is confirmed by long-term data from Ann Arbor and lake freeze data from Mendota Lake in Madison Wisconsin.

An interesting paper on the distribution of ocean warming. Particularly relevant to those living near 40N The world's oceans are heating faster in two bands stretching around the globe, one in the southern hemisphere and one in the north, according to new research led by climate scientist Dr Kevin Trenberth. In both hemispheres, the areas are near 40 degrees latitude. The first band at 40 to 45 degrees south is heating at the world's fastest pace, with the effect especially pronounced around New Zealand, Tasmania, and Atlantic waters east of Argentina.The second band is around 40 degrees north, with the biggest effects in waters east of the United States in the North Atlantic and east of Japan in the North Pacific. "This is very striking," says Trenberth,of the University of Auckland and the National Center of Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. "It's unusual to discover such a distinctive pattern jumping out from climate data," he says. The heat bands have developed since 2005 in tandem with poleward shifts in the jet stream, the powerful winds above the Earth's surface that blow from west to east, and corresponding shifts in ocean currents, according to Trenberth and his co-authors in the Journal of Climate. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2025/05/250501122720.htm https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/38/9/JCLI-D-24-0609.1.xml

UAH6 tied for 3rd high this April, matching the 1998 and 2016 super ninos. Unusually warm for cool neutral enso.

CERES data updated through February. Noisy from month to month. Last month's anomaly came in lower after an upward spike in January. The 12-month average is starting to turn up so the net radiation bottom for this enso cycle has probably been passed. If so net radiation fell to a similar level following the 2015/16 and 2023/24 ninos. The 3-year average remains stubbornly high, indicating that the next big step won't be cooler.

I haven't been following, but there have been unusually strong NE trades in the Atlantic MDR for the past 3 months which would cause upwelling. The mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge looks stronger than normal.

This 2013 paper on snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere is on track so far. Snow is expected to be a lagging indicator of climate change due to offsetting effects of precipitation and temperature and natural variability. Have to be well up in Canada, with average winter temps of -10C, to see a net snowfall benefit from warming. Further south, downward snowfall trends will emerge slowly as the Century progresses. Two steps down and one up kind of thing. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/26/20/jcli-d-12-00832.1.xml

His comments are dumb. Shows he doesn't understand the climate system. Apologize for the complicated chart, which is from a recent paper on the causes of warming in the 23-24 nino. The ocean is being warmed from the surface down (bottom chart). The timing of surface ocean and atmosphere warming (AE is atmospheric energy in second chart from bottom) is modulated by enso. The warming of the ocean is due a global net radiation imbalance (second chart from top), which is also modulated by enso. Overall there's a balance between the net energy coming in at the top of the atmosphere and the amount of heat in ocean (see paper). No room for seismic energy to play a role as energy from the sun can explain all the ocean warming. Energy accumulates gradually in the ocean during La Nina and is partially released during el nino to upper ocean, atmosphere and space (outgoing radiation). During El nino net radiation falls (second chart from top) but only to the net balance line, i.e., the atmosphere can hold the added el nino heat it is receiving from the ocean. If the warming was due to seismic the added seismic energy would lead to a negative radiation imbalance as the added seismic heat would increase outgoing radiation. Note that the paper concludes that the increasing net radiation imbalance means we should expect a doubling of the rate of SST rise over the next 20 years. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a

One factor is the pattern reversal along the Atlantic front in March. From warm compacting to cool exporting winds. While extent has expanded there is also high ice export through Fram and Franz Joseph straits. Pattern looks to continue for the next week. Note that this would be an unfavorable pattern in summer. With sunny conditions under Arctic high.

Your being confused by station moves. We've been over the importance of West Chester and Coatesville station moves a zillion times. The moves were large enough to obscure the real climate trend. As shown upthread, without the station moves there is no cooling at West Chester or Coatesville. Here's another way to remove the station moves: plot the before and after move data separately. Without the confusion of the station moves, West Chester and Coatesville are in good agreement on our local weather. Before the station moves, May temperatures were close to 62F at the two stations. After the moves they had cooled to 60F. The trend lines for West Chester and Coatesville both before and after the station moves are almost the same. There is no change in temperature before the station moves; and, warming after the station moves. Further confirmation that West Chester and Coatesville have warmed in May. The effect of the station moves is easily seen by comparing the regression lines around the time of the moves. Immediately before the station moves, May temperatures were close to 62F at the two stations. After the moves they had cooled to 60F. This example shows the value of bias-adjustment. As Coatesville and West Chester demonstrate, the raw data from a single station can be misleading when there are major station changes. This isn't rocket science. Knowing the station histories, it is easy for me to remove the station moves and get a more accurate climate trend that is close to NOAA. You could do the same.

Nope, one station too warm or too cold doesn't bother me at all. We have thousands of temperature stations in the US and weather data is correlated for hundreds of miles. Easy to spot and correct stations with problems whether its sensors, station location, or change in local land-use (heat islands). The only thing that bothers me is claims that there is something wrong with our knowledge about recent temperature trends.

You aren't showing any station data though. Zero. Just your network averages that are contaminated with station moves and network changes. If you want to argue that the other stations refute West Chester and Coatesville, show the actual raw station data. Good luck, because the other long-term station, Phoenixville, also shows slight warming. West Chester and Coatesville are the only Chesco stations with multi-decade periods with no significant station changes, during those periods the raw data is only responding to weather. We have had one set of weather in Chester County, that is well depicted by West Chester and Coatesville raw data and NOAA. The other stations don't show anything different.

You are making a mountain out of a molehill. The Philly airport ran roughly a degree warm in 2022. The sensor was replaced and 2023 and 2024 are back to normal. Easy to track by comparing to nearby sites. NOAA and other experts won't be fooled.