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About this blog

A few massive snowstorms have gained the respectability that every storm wants to gain.  The last few blizzards to strike the SNE region have not lived up to their predecessors.  The Blizzard of 2005 and 2015 are two storms that come to mind that blow everyone away when it comes to wind gusts and snowfall amounts in Harwich, MA.  When it comes to intensity of snowfall the Blizzard of 2005 is second to none, while the duration of the storm the blizzard of 2015 wins out.  Also wind gusts 2005 wins out over 2015 as Nantucket lost power as an 86mph wind gust hit the island, while Nantucket didn't lose power to the island in the 2015 storm where a 78mph gust ended up hitting the island.  As for snowfall amounts as I said earlier, the Blizzard of 2005 beat out the Blizzard of 2015 by two inches, 35" to 33" respectively. 

Entries in this blog

Preliminary Snow thoughts for this Weekend and snow map

What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday.  There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm.  The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the
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"Blizzard of 2018" "Storm of the Century"

Good evening folks,  This is my latest blog entry and the first official entry on the potential Blizzard of 2018, or Storm of the Century potential on January 3-5th 2018.  The first image is water vapor imagery taken as of this hour, it represents the different ebs and flows in our country.  Also it currently has three disturbances that will impact our storm potential this week.  The arctic disturbance is circled over NW Canada in a pink dot, the second disturbance is in red, the Pacific sh
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"Blizzard of 2018" Snow fall map final one

I added lollis of 24"+ to the map because I seriously think the storm hits the benchmark and pushes the snowfall further west, Hartford, CT to Boston, MA gets 12-24" of snow overall with less on the Cape and Nantucket due to more rain forecasted, this storm came west congrats people along and west of I95 corridor
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January 17th/18th Major Storm Threat

12z models trending towards a major coastal redeveloping nor'easter come next Tuesday into Wednesday.  NWS Taunton WFO has a 50% of snow in the forecast for Tuesday and 40% chance of snow for Wednesday, depending upon whether or not the trough closes off at H5 into a low will determine the duration of this winter storm, could be anywhere between 18-36 hours of snow
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Ocean Effect Snow Breakout and a Clipper/Coastal Storm next week

Latest NAM run 00z shows a strong potential for ocean effect snow event from the Cape Cod Canal eastward to Provincetown on northerly winds, also unidirectional wind flow from 900mb to the surface indicates a single band event is probable along with a strong instability burst from 850mb to surface ocean temperature differential (Delta Ts) of 18-20C which is sufficient enough to produce heavy snows over the Cape and Islands.  Also the flow is stronger than 10mph which should be sufficient enough
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January 14/16th Snow event, Ocean Effect Snows

My next post is about the potential snows from Saturday evening through Thursday morning.  Models are in general agreement that the potentials for Ocean Effect Snow from Sunday through Tuesday and then storm produced snows from Wednesday through Thursday due to a coastal storm is on the table.  However, this post will solely focus on the Ocean Effect Snow potentials.  First is the event Sunday through Monday.  Mesoscale WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW both support a single band of ocean effect snowfall impa
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January 15-19th Second call snowfall map

This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod.  I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region.  Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the W
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Snowstorm threat developing

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!
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*Winter Storm Alert*

12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent -winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday -Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter -as Nor'easter develops a potent
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**Winter Storm Alert** Southeastern New England Snowstorm Map

Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon.  It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket.  This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.
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**Winter Storm Alert** final map

This is my final map for this snowstorm.  Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm.  Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod.  Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands.  Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall.  Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday.
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**Winter Storm Alert** Two Storm threats increasing, Friday and again on Monday

Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday.  Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday.  Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday.  Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February
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February to bring cold and snow to the New England coastline

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters.  I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern U
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"Dawn Awakening", the first edition is available to read

If you heard the names of Franklin, Gert and Harvey, you would think, hey those are just general names and nothing bad to think about here, but you put a hurricane in front and now you have, Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Gert, and Hurricane Harvey, now you have built in fear.  What if the US was in an unprecedented times, the weather was king and the oceans were warming without the impacts of global warming, nope Solar radiation was normal, so it can be that, no what if you were a meteorologist
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